Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[Cmasterclay]

Also I will say that if Napoleon does the numbers people here are talking about (10m OW/25 total) then trailer views should be abolished as a meaningful metric. Both trailers have now exploded on YouTube and social media metrics. A-Lister like Joaquin plays Napoleon in a movie from Gladiator director is a far easier sell than KOTFM even if Joaquin/Ridley ain't Leo/Marty.

[titanic2187]

The real bomb for KoTFM is if failed to garner nomination at the Oscar. That is the real battlefield. Making profit or not, the movie is already more cinematic than 99% of the movie that made money out there. 

[Madhuvan]

Considering Taylor did 6m on Thursday. That's a great 2nd weekend for her. 

 

And now that Cruel Summer is finally going #1. This is a great win.

[PrinceRico]

That is not good for KOTFM Especially with its budget.  No way to spin it. To bad the Eros tour couldn't open next week. Five Nights at Swifts could have been the next Barbieheimer.

[Gavin Feng]

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (2023)

cinema

[Eric Burnett]

6 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

That is not good for KOTFM Especially with its budget.  No way to spin it. To bad the Eros tour couldn't open next week. Five Nights at Swifts could have been the next Barbieheimer.

We really need to end this whole "what will be the next Barbenheimer". Like...we're never getting another one of those.

[LonePirate]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (2023)

cinema

I'm guessing the movie's length knocked it down from an A to an A-.

[Gavin Feng]

Just now, LonePirate said:

I'm guessing the movie's length knocked it down from an A to an A-.

 

It could be. An 3.5 hours R-rated drama get A- is a good sign for it. Hope a long run is coming.

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I'm guessing the movie's length knocked it down from an A to an A-.

More likely the older demographics, it´s a rated r movie. 

 

The very good ones usually gets A-, even B+. The A for Oppenheimer was super impressive because it´s kinda unusual 

[filmlover]

The Departed opened with nearly $27M in the same month 17 years ago and was sold as a true ensemble movie with big names so KOTFM almost matching that being sold as a Leo vehicle first and foremost seems solid IMO. With strong WOM it should leg it out to over $100M.

[lab276]

Soon!!!! Just 15m to go!

 

[ThomasNicole]

9.5M would be bad, no way to spin it. It sure can have good legs and let´s see the OS figures, and i´m sure lack of promotion from the cast [especially Leo] hurt it a bit. So let´s see, it can still ended up with ~100M DOM / 300M WW depending on the legs, but the OW is shaping up to disappoint.

 

Still, i think this is way more sad for the moviegoing experience than for the studio, because what matters here is that once again we have another proof that there´s still a lot of work to do in the goal of making people care for movies that aren´t big IP´s again.

 

For Apple, it doesn´t really matter. No matter how many times some people try to treat it like a disaster that should be compared with other pure theatrical movies, in the end, it´s still a streaming movie with a glorified theatrical release to please both the talents and the fans. Still, it´s fully made for streaming.

 

And we all know Apple accept the huge budget not because they really though this was a +700M potential grosser, they made it because they want prestige, they want awards, and they´ll likely get both. No reason to pretend they care that much if this opens with 27M or 35M.

Edited October 21, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[noobmaster69]

Killers of the Flower Moon will be a huge bomb, appletv+ can't change this,most users of Appletv+ are free users, Appletv+ cannot cover the loss. The difference between kotfm and other bombs is that Apple is willing to pay for kotfm to get something goodwill, while other studios are not willing to pay for bombs.

[WrathOfHan]

47 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (2023)

cinema

Same CinemaScore as Departed and Goodfellas, legs are going to be just fine. Hopefully the WOM boosts Sat/Sun business.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Huge shame about Flower Moon, but this further reinforces my belief that the Barbenheimer craze at least doubled Oppenheimer's haul. Had Barbie not been there, then it'd be lucky to make Dunkirk numbers.

[redfirebird2008]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Departed opened with nearly $27M in the same month 17 years ago and was sold as a true ensemble movie with big names so KOTFM almost matching that being sold as a Leo vehicle first and foremost seems solid IMO. With strong WOM it should leg it out to over $100M.

Departed is a $43M opener in 2023 dollars. Will be interesting to see how the legs play for Killers. 

[redfirebird2008]

10 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Huge shame about Flower Moon, but this further reinforces my belief that the Barbenheimer craze at least doubled Oppenheimer's haul. Had Barbie not been there, then it'd be lucky to make Dunkirk numbers.

Sounds pretty ridiculous. 

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Sounds pretty ridiculous. 

 

I mean you can’t deny the meme power helped both movies massively. What other reason is there for Oppenheimer to make so much more than Dunkirk/Interstellar?

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

I mean you can’t deny the meme power helped both movies massively. What other reason is there for Oppenheimer to make so much more than Dunkirk/Interstellar?

Nuclear weapons are a universal issue. Dunkirk is not exactly an accessible story outside of Britain. Don’t forget inflation, which helps every new movie compared to stuff from years ago. 

[JustLurking]

A- is a great score for this given what it is, well-deserved too. I'm hoping for a leggy run.