JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Cynosure]

No year end #1 for TFA.

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Corpse said:

(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会

 

Weekend Estimates (09/03-04)
01 (01) ¥1,150,000,000 ($11.0 million), +24%, ¥3,775,000,000 ($36.8 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥317,000,000 ($3.1 million), -17%, ¥5,950,000,000 ($57.9 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK6
03 (03) ¥197,000,000 ($1.9 million), -33%, ¥3,625,000,000 ($35.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK4
04 (04) ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), -26%, ¥615,000,000 ($6.0 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) WK2
05 (06) ¥117,000,000 ($1.1 million), -21%, ¥875,000,000 ($8.5 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK3
06 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa) NEW
07 (05) ¥95,000,000 ($920,000), -39%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($10.0 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK3
08 (08) ¥85,000,000 ($820,000), -35%, ¥1,980,000,000 ($19.5 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK4
09 (09) ¥83,000,000 ($800,000), -31%, ¥4,950,000,000 ($48.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK7
10 (07) ¥73,000,000 ($710,000), -45%, ¥6,600,000,000 ($63.9 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK8

 

>Director Makoto Shinkai's 'Your Name.' continues to defy belief by experiencing a second weekend increase, but not just any increase, but a likely 20%+ increase.  Its opening weekend was already insane enough, arguably the most-impressive on record, but its second weekend in on an entirely different level and without a doubt the most-impressive second frame of all-time.  

 

According to estimates, its second weekend will be the 6th biggest of all time overall, and the 2nd biggest for an animation film (behind only Howl's Moving Castle).  It's also the biggest second weekend since 2007, and a small increase over estimates could make it the biggest second weekend since 2004.  And a quick example of how significant this second weekend is in terms of modern-day box office: Its second weekend admissions will be greater than Star Wars: The Force Awaken's opening weekend, and nearly on par with its opening weekend in gross.      

 

Its two-week total also comes in near an all-time high as well for an animated film (and maybe top 10 overall, despite no holiday support).  It's outpacing every animated film ever after two weeks besides Miyazaki's Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away (and its second weekend just bested the latter).  Everyone has been waiting to see who would be the "next Miyazaki" at the box office, if anyone could ever fill that role at all, and audiences and critics alike have spoken in unity that Makoto Shinkai is that guy. 

 

Shinkai's dreamesque love story has become a very likely ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) earner following the result of this weekend, and don't be too surprised if it makes a run at well over the uber-blockbuster mark and climbs toward ¥15 billion ($150 million), or more, as it's likely to remain atop the box office for a couple months.

will the mid-Sep holidays help your name to gross further? 

[Corpse]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

How much more do you think Ghostbusters has left in the tank in Japan, minimum? @Corpse

 

Probably around $4 million, so expect it to finish with $14/15 million.  A bit of a disappointing result, but Japan should end up passing the UK as its biggest overseas market, so... not bad considering its performance everywhere else.  

[Cookson]

I know the topic is mostly Your Name. at the moment but Shin Godzilla having another weekend over 3m is amazing. Another great hold. Should be at 60m going into next weekend hopefully.

 

I doubt it'll hit 80m(or am I wrong?) but hitting 70m is a great achievement for the franchise.

[efialtes76]

What you expect for Suicide Squad?

[Corpse]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

will the mid-Sep holidays help your name to gross further? 

 

Indeed.  Mid-September has been growing in popularity with more holidays, some non-national, being added to the week.  It's been labeled "Silver Week".  The week isn't as strong as the other big three (Golden Week, Obon Week, and New Year Week), but it's still strong.

 

It's quite possible that Your Name. hasn't had its best week yet, and could deliver it during that time frame (17th-23rd).

[Corpse]

3 minutes ago, Cookson said:

I know the topic is mostly Your Name. at the moment but Shin Godzilla having another weekend over 3m is amazing. Another great hold. Should be at 60m going into next weekend hopefully.

 

I doubt it'll hit 80m(or am I wrong?) but hitting 70m is a great achievement for the franchise.

 

Yeah, it's continuing to perform extremely well.  There's a lot to mention about Your Name., so I don't want the weekend estimates analysis to become a chore to read through.   I'll go over how it's doing with the weekend actuals analysis tomorrow, though.

 

$80 million will be a challenge, but I expect it'll clear $75 million.  I'd say it's more than a great achievement, considering its admissions will be higher than any Godzilla film since the 1960s!  Quite remarkable. 

 

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

What you expect for Suicide Squad?

 

Not very much.  It'll probably debut in 4th/5th place or so next weekend.  $10 million, total, is likely its ceiling.  

[Corpse]

Biggest Second Weekends [2001-]

 

¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), -02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.39 billion ($11.3 million), -31%, ¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, ¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) 
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004) 
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, ¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) 
¥1.15 billion ($11.0 million), +24%, ¥3.78 billion ($36.6 million) - Your Name. (2016) *Estimate*
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, ¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) 
¥1.09 billion ($9.3 million), -50%, ¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, ¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) 
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, ¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009) 
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, ¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, ¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.24 billion ($34.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥941 million ($7.6 million), +11%, ¥4.36 billion ($35.0 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥936 million ($7.9 million), -25%, ¥3.18 billion ($26.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥872 million ($8.6 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) - Frozen (2014) 
¥860 million ($8.0 million), -04%, ¥2.49 billion ($23.1 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥820 million ($7.1 million), -19%, ¥2.98 billion ($25.8 million) - Hero (2007) 
¥814 million ($7.3 million), -62%, ¥4.07 billion ($36.1 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) 
¥811 million ($8.3 million), -16%, ¥2.85 billion ($29.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013) 
¥810 million ($7.5 million), -48%, ¥3.43 billion ($30.8 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥806 million ($7.6 million), -22%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.5 million) - Ponyo (2008) 
¥756 million ($7.1 million), -25%, ¥2.62 billion ($25.0 million) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥728 million ($8.2 million), -26%, ¥2.37 billion ($27.3 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010) 
¥726 million ($6.0 million), -42%, ¥3.84 billion ($31.8 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥708 million ($6.3 million), -27%, ¥2.35 billion ($21.8 million) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006) 
¥705 million ($6.1 million), -63%, ¥3.75 billion ($32.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) 
¥704 million ($8.6 million), -48%, ¥2.86 billion ($34.7 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012) 
¥704 million ($7.2 million), -17%, ¥2.49 billion ($25.4 million) - Monsters University (2013)
¥701 million ($6.9 million), -09%, ¥3.27 billion ($32.1 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)

[Krissykins]

22 minutes ago, Corpse said:

 

Probably around $4 million, so expect it to finish with $14/15 million.  A bit of a disappointing result, but Japan should end up passing the UK as its biggest overseas market, so... not bad considering its performance everywhere else.  

 

phew. That will push it over $100m intl.

 

thank you 

[Heretic]

Your Name will be exciting to follow for sure. I can see this being a $150m+ grosser in Japan, it's definitely a new pphenomenon.

Edited September 4, 2016 by Heretic

[seduh]

Amazing for Your Name, i really want to see it

[Agafin]

Yes, this second weekend is significantly more impressive than even Frozen's which is quite something to say the least. 

 

Hey @Corpse wasn't Hosoda the one who used to be considered as Miyazaki's successor?

[Corpse]

4 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Yes, this second weekend is significantly more impressive than even Frozen's which is quite something to say the least. 

 

Hey @Corpse wasn't Hosoda the one who used to be considered as Miyazaki's successor?

 

Hosoda, along with Shinkai, are considered by critics and audiences as the leading candidates to succeed Miyazaki in the market as top director.  However, I think that title (if you give it to one individual) firmly goes to Shinkai now with the performance we're seeing from Your Name.  Last year, Hosoda's The Boy and the Beast performed very well and exceeded the blockbuster mark of 5 billion (5.8 billion), but it wasn't a significant increase over his previous film, Wolf Children (4.2 billion).  And critically, while The Boy and the Beast was met with positive reviews, it seems that most agree it's a slight step down from Wolf Children.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[seduh]

I agree, Wolf Children was amazing while the boy and the beast was good. I love so much miyasaki that i would love to see someone as his sucesor

[SchumacherFTW]

Can't wait to see Your Name soon. If not at LFF, it's already got tickets on sale for a UK release which is insane for any anime movie. 

[Corpse]

Also, thanks to Your Name.'s unprecedented performance, 2016 is guaranteed to increase over 2015 in yearly admissions.  2016 was already likely to increase over 2015 (up double digits back in July), but this locks it up for sure.

 

2016 will make the 5th-consecutive year that yearly admissions are up in Japan, besting the previous longest streak from 1955-1958.  Japan's box office isn't so stagnant anymore.  And if 2016 is able to increase "just" 5% over 2015's yearly admissions, it'll end up with the most admissions since 1974, too.  

 

Additionally... 2015 was the second biggest year in terms of revenue (behind just 2010), and 2016 is looking very likely of beating 2015 (and 2010) there as well.

[Corpse]

(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会

 

Weekend Actuals (09/03-04)
01 (01) ¥1,160,909,500 ($11.27 million), +25%, ¥3,872,646,600 ($37.6 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥316,739,300 ($3.07 million), -17%, ¥6,017,239,800 ($58.4 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK6
03 (03) ¥199,201,000 ($1.93 million), -32%, ¥3,666,121,600 ($35.9 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK4
04 (04) ¥167,478,000 ($1.62 million), -23%, ¥732,195,900 ($7.1 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) WK2
05 (---) ¥120,101,200 ($1.16 million), 0, ¥193,479,100 ($1.9 million), Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa) NEW
06 (06) ¥114,763,400 ($1.11 million), -22%, ¥892,679,600 ($8.7 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK3
07 (05) ¥93,273,200 ($906,000), -40%, ¥1,046,347,500 ($10.1 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK3
08 (08) ¥85,909,200 ($833,000), -34%, ¥2,013,275,000 ($19.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK4
09 (09) ¥84,428,100 ($819,000), -30%, ¥4,969,439,100 ($48.5 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK7
10 (07) ¥74,892,300 ($727,000), -43%, ¥6,636,604,100 ($64.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK8

 

>Alright, so get used to me saying what I'm about to say, because I'll be saying it for many, many weeks (possibly until November)... Director Makoto Shinkai's 'Your Name.' once again reigns atop the box office this weekend, this time selling an outstanding 872,000 admissions for a 24.8% increase over its opening weekend...  After just 10 days in release, it's 5,330 admissions shy of 3 million admissions already.

 

The film somehow managed to improve upon its insane opening weekend, arguably the most-impressive opening ever, and certainly delivered the most impressive second weekend of all-time.  Last weekend, it sold through ~43% of its available weekend admissions; this weekend, it increased selling through ~55% of its available weekend admissions.  Here's how massive its second weekend/second total really is:  

 

>First film to ever experience a second weekend increase that debuted above ¥900 million.
>Biggest second weekend of all-time for an original film from a non-established studio/source material.
>6th highest second weekend of all-time; 2nd highest second weekend for a domestic film (behind Howl's Moving Castle).
>9th highest two-week total of all-time; 3rd highest for a domestic film (behind Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away).
>3rd biggest two-week total for any animated film (behind Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away).
>Biggest #1 weekend film of all-time for the month of September. 

 

Basically... it's second weekend and two-week total are bigger than everything besides the early Harry Potter films and two Miyazaki films (and its second weekend bests Spirited Away's by near 20%).  Everyone has been waiting to see who would be the "next Miyazaki" at the box office, if anyone could ever fill that role at all, and audiences and critics alike have spoken in unity that Makoto Shinkai is that guy. 

 

Shinkai's dreamesque teenage love story has become a lock to exceed the ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) uber-blockbuster milestone, so where does it go from there?  Well, it'll begin its path toward reaching the ¥15 billion ($150 million) milestone, and don't be shocked if it's able to go even higher.

 

>Shin Godzilla has taken the backseat in regards to making headlines with its incredible performance, but it's far from being forgotten.  Once again, the film enjoyed an exceptional hold and still hasn't fallen more than 21% since it opened.  

 

Over its sixth weekend in release, it managed to exceed the ¥6 billion milestone and has sold over 4.1 million admissions.  And after next weekend, it'll have sold enough tickets to become the most-attended Godzilla film since 1966, and will still have quite a bit left in the tank still.  On its current weekly path, it'll eventually exceed ¥7.5 billion ($72/73 million) on over 5 million admissions (that'd give it a monstrous multiplier over 12).  

 

>The Secret Life of Pets falls to third place in its fourth weekend, and while a 32% decline is a little harsh, it's actually quite good for a family animated film coming out of the summer box office season.  It's now evident that it won't have to crawl to the ¥4 billion ($40 million) milestone, and should end up finishing its run around ¥4.3/4.4 billion ($42/43 million).  

 

>Now You See Me 2 comes in fifth place, selling 87,045 admissions over the weekend frame on 245 screens, and 150,492 admissions since opening on Thursday.  This debut is pretty solid, despite the ranking, and is actually up 19% compared to its predecessor.    

 

>Finding Dory was unable to avoid the big post-summer drop that the majority of family animated films experience, thus ending any chance it had at a recovery at the box office.  Overall, even though Japan will be its best international market, the film has had a disappointing run in the market.  It's going to finish its run with about ¥7 billion ($67/68 million), possibly even missing that milestone, which is down 36% compared to Finding Nemo and down 22% compared to Monsters University.  

[cannastop]

@Corpse

Was it Labor Day in Japan or something? Monday admissions also seem really high, according to mimorin.

[Corpse]

No, there wasn't a holiday yesterday.  Are you referring to Your Name., in particular?

 

If so, it's because it's become a phenomenon.  I even see some locations today with multiple showings at half-capacity or better, 6+ hours before they begin.  Expect to see it post crazy figures for weeks/months to come.

Edited September 6, 2016 by Corpse

[Cookson]

Do you think that 72/73m for Shin Godzilla will be it's total, or do you think it could sneak to 75 or even 80?