Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Pah, y'all betting houses. I'll bet the UK's GDP that it won't beat NWH

This is £75M all over again….

 

[SchumacherFTW]

45 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

This is £75M all over again….

 

I'm allowed to be wrong, especially when I'm looking to bankrupt my country 👀

[Brainbug]

Gotta admit, im one of those people who really doubted for years that Avatar 2 could get anywhere close to Avatar. I never thought it would "flop", just that my predicted 1,4 - 1,7B for it would look a bit underwhelming when compared to Avatar 1.

 

But the first pictures look stunning visually and its one of those old box office rules that doubting Cameron is a path to the loosing side. I do have my doubts about Avatar 2's performance in China since that country (or atleast the government) seems to like Western releases less and less and Europe also remains to be seen how it will perform, as 3D films are not that popular anymore.

 

I do think that it will get a big opening (like 150M+) in the US, but not the scale of a Marvel/Star Wars release, and that it will obviously depend on the legs how far it will go and if it could reach or even surpass the first one. All depends on quality, WOM and if the novelty factor still plays a role. Assuming that all of this is there, my prediction would be 1,9 - 2,1B.

 

If the film is merely "good" without having some groundbreaking elements, then i still woudnt be surprised with a range of 1,5 - 1,7B.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

China is more or less done with mainstream Hollywood beyond the occasional odd Snake Eyes or Encanto. So $2B is going to be very tough. It also doesn't have a strong brand name as a failsafe akin to Marvel nor the strong fandom for horror movies.

 

This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting movies in recent years. It'll either be a monster hit or gigaflop. Nothing inbetween. And Disney inherited all these sequels from the old Fox regime may I add.

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It'll either be a monster hit or gigaflop.

 

People like to use that saying but in reality it (whatever that is) ends up being somewhere in the middle most of the time.

 

Also, there's no way Avatar 2 gigaflops, at least to my definition.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Elessar

[Macleod]

6 hours ago, Brainbug said:

If the film is merely "good" without having some groundbreaking elements, then i still woudnt be surprised with a range of 1,5 - 1,7B.

 

Has Cameron ever directed a movie that wasn't "groundbreaking" in certain technical or thematic elements?  I'm not talking hype, here, I'm talking filmmaking realities.  He wouldn't even be pursuing this long-term AVATAR project if he didn't feel he could advance the medium with it.  Sure, people like Ang Lee and Peter Jackson have experimented with frame rates and visual effects, but Cameron almost always expands the medium -- by telling universal stories that allow audiences to immerse themselves in new or unspoken realities.  

[Lothar]

7 hours ago, Brainbug said:

big opening (like 150M+

Thursday preview that high will ensure 1 billie opening weekend Dom

[Brainbug]

5 hours ago, Macleod said:

 

Has Cameron ever directed a movie that wasn't "groundbreaking" in certain technical or thematic elements?  I'm not talking hype, here, I'm talking filmmaking realities.  He wouldn't even be pursuing this long-term AVATAR project if he didn't feel he could advance the medium with it.  Sure, people like Ang Lee and Peter Jackson have experimented with frame rates and visual effects, but Cameron almost always expands the medium -- by telling universal stories that allow audiences to immerse themselves in new or unspoken realities.  

 

Nah, not all of his films were groundbreaking. True Lies (good movie, some elements have poorly aged though) and Aliens, which is amazing, both did not have truly groundbreaking elements. Piranha 2 doesnt really count though, imo since that production history is complicated.

[Sophia Jane]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Nah, not all of his films were groundbreaking. True Lies (good movie, some elements have poorly aged though) and Aliens, which is amazing, both did not have truly groundbreaking elements. Piranha 2 doesnt really count though, imo since that production history is complicated.

Ture Lies break all－time box office record in China,and make Anold become household name in China.

[Macleod]

18 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Nah, not all of his films were groundbreaking. True Lies (good movie, some elements have poorly aged though) and Aliens, which is amazing, both did not have truly groundbreaking elements. Piranha 2 doesnt really count though, imo since that production history is complicated.

Say what you will about TRUE LIES, fair enough, probably his least "groundbreaking" film -- but there are plenty of things to say about ALIENS, what it does for its time, for its gender representation, that film historians/academics/fans would argue that yes, indeed it was groundbreaking.  Its almost jingoistic military fetish has dated a bit, of course, but that was a product of its 1980s-American era.  Still a stunning movie in all technical aspects and for daring to let a woman be Mother, Savior, Action Hero and lead of the film!  We will be using it in class again this upcoming semester!  

Edited January 21, 2022 by Macleod

[Valonqar]

Aliens was absolutely groundbreaking. It changed the genre for the established IP which was very unusual for sequels (from sci fi horror to sci fi action). It was hailed for Ripley's iconic turn as a full-blown action heroine which was rare in the 80s mainstream blockbusters. When it comes to strong female characters in mainstream blockbusters, that neither feel like male characters nor as parodies of strong female trope, Cameron is the king. 

 

[Mango]

Really interested to see if this film revives the 3D fad. The format has basically been on life-support for years. I hate 3D, so I hope not. Not saying that I want the film to fail, but it'd be nice to not have 3D shoved down my throat for another 5 years.

 

In terms of quality, Cameron hasn't really given me a reason to doubt IMO. I'm not sure what more I'd necessarily want from an Avatar sequel, the first one was a pretty good vfx bonanza with a pretty simple story that was boosted by great direction and imaginative design but I haven't really been clamoring for a sequel. That said, the only two sequels Cameron has directed were arguably better than the originals, so there's that.

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, Macleod said:

Say what you will about TRUE LIES, fair enough, probably his least "groundbreaking" film -- but there are plenty of things to say about ALIENS, what it does for its time, for its gender representation, that film historians/academics/fans would argue that yes, indeed it was groundbreaking.  Its almost jingoistic military fetish has dated a bit, of course, but that was a product of its 1980s-American era.  Still a stunning movie in all technical aspects and for daring to let a woman be Mother, Savior, Action Hero and lead of the film!  We will be using it in class again this upcoming semester!  

 

Unfortunately if TRUE LIES came out today, the amount of controversy and think pieces about its alleged racism and sexism would be something else.  I like TRUE LIES a lot, it was one of my favorites growing up as an Ahnold fan.  Its the last Cameron film that I truly enjoy.

 

And as much as I like ALIENS(i've probably seen it like 50 times), ALIEN is the superior film IMO.  ALIEN hasn't aged at all whereas ALIENS is very much an 80s film.

 

 

[Macleod]

16 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Unfortunately if TRUE LIES came out today, the amount of controversy and think pieces about its alleged racism and sexism would be something else.  I like TRUE LIES a lot, it was one of my favorites growing up as an Ahnold fan.  Its the last Cameron film that I truly enjoy.

 

Well...if TRUE LIES were made today, I think Cameron and everyone else would make a *different* TRUE LIES, because of course the culture has changed!  

 

Not disagreeing that usually the first ALIEN is still considered superior film, yes.  But we're just talking Cameron, here.  😉

[Maggie]

3D is dead, so i don't know how this movie can achieve the high some are predicting

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Maggie said:

3D is dead, so i don't know how this movie can achieve the high some are predicting

 

By bringing it back to life. Same thing the first one did. 

[AniNate]

It's hard to imagine 3D having a similar kind of fad-ish wave after Avatar 2 as it did the first. It's an entirely different market the movie will be releasing in and everyone has wised up to 3D's main business purpose of adding an extra $3 to the ticket price. Only way 3D gets revived now is if they figure out how to do it without glasses on a mass scale.

Edited January 22, 2022 by AniNate

[cdsacken]

On 1/20/2022 at 3:12 AM, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm allowed to be wrong, especially when I'm looking to bankrupt my country 👀

 

If Avatar 2 is released in China no chance. If not, definitely possible.

[Ozymandias]

16 hours ago, Maggie said:

3D is dead, so i don't know how this movie can achieve the high some are predicting

 

It may temporarily revive it or be largely exclusive to the Avatar sequels when it comes to people giving a shit about it, but as far as it becoming a permanent mainstream part of cinema in the way that color film did like Cameron was hyping it up to be in his Avatar promotional tours back in 09 and 10?  Lol not a chance.  3D does not make any of the fundamentals of any film any better like the writing, performances, score, etc.

[TomCruiseTop]

Whenever you read any detractors about Avatar, ask yourself this: Who do I trust more? James Cameron, a self made billionaire, inventor, and pioneering film maker... or some dude with over 10 thousand posts on a box office theory forum?

 

It's a tough choice isn't it?