Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

All I'm willing to predict for China is that the screens they do it show it on will sell really damn well. I'll leave it to the China experts to figure out what that means in $$$

Simple. The lower the Covid-case in China, the higher the box office gross. 

[Macleod]

Can't believe I beat you folks to this???  

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ on Track to Open to $150 Million to $175 Million

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-way-of-water-box-office-tracking-1235440832/

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Macleod said:

Can't believe I beat you folks to this???  

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ on Track to Open to $150 Million to $175 Million

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-way-of-water-box-office-tracking-1235440832/

they posted it in the tracking thread!

 

I'll be sad if my 190m ow prediction is too low, i should have never have doubted myself

Edited November 23, 2022 by IronJimbo

[JustLurking]

20 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Can't believe I beat you folks to this???  

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ on Track to Open to $150 Million to $175 Million

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-way-of-water-box-office-tracking-1235440832/

Think this range is a bit too limited,  it could land here but I can also definitely see a higher OW happening atm.

[stuart360]

1 hour ago, Macleod said:

Can't believe I beat you folks to this???  

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ on Track to Open to $150 Million to $175 Million

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-way-of-water-box-office-tracking-1235440832/

Basically what i said ages in this thread. I think people predicting $200+mil are not thinking it through (although its crtainly possible to hit that.

This films is a 4 hour slot with commercials and previews, that combined with it not really being a fanboy driven film like a Marvel film, means IMO a $150-180mil OW, but very good legs, 5x legs if not more for me.

Edited November 23, 2022 by stuart360

[Ozymandias]

this is gonna make all the money in the world

 

glad to be here with you folks at the end of all things

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, Macleod said:

Can't believe I beat you folks to this???  

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ on Track to Open to $150 Million to $175 Million

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-way-of-water-box-office-tracking-1235440832/

 

Better than i expected. Isn't tracking usually quite conservative?

Edited November 23, 2022 by Elessar

[Deuce66]

A $185 million opening weekend which could lead to a $275 million week #1 total, assuming typical Cameron legs I could see this easily ending up with over $700 million domestic. If week #2 only drops 20-30% we're off to the races. This will be an easy $2B + China movie. 

[Cap]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

You know, I think I realized in the last couple of days what would be THE single most irritating result for A2 domestically.  At least for

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

Don't think I didn't consider that as I was typing!!!

 

The monkey paw probably curled earlier here:

 

On 11/19/2022 at 2:30 PM, Porthos said:

FWIW, I think I'm still around +/- 750m DOM total.  How it gets there, I have no idea.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to do much better than that (stars aligning) and also wouldn't surprise me to see it do less (how much less, I have no idea whatsoever thanks to the wildcards at play).

 

 

and that post you just quoted was me realizing it. 

[fmpro]

Uuuuuge opening coming up here in Denmark

[stuart360]

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

 

 

 

rap god at the end

[IronJimbo]

So does anyone still think A2 is going to make less than 2 billion worldwide now?
With it tracking at $150m-$200m opening weekend right now domestically, and with a china release confirmed. I think it's looking crazy unlikely to go under $2b even entirely from a logical non-view fan view.
 

[hw64]

20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So does anyone still think A2 is going to make less than 2 billion worldwide now?
With it tracking at $150m-$200m opening weekend right now domestically, and with a china release confirmed. I think it's looking crazy unlikely to go under $2b even entirely from a logical non-view fan view.
 

 

If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.

[Reddroast]

25 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So does anyone still think A2 is going to make less than 2 billion worldwide now?
With it tracking at $150m-$200m opening weekend right now domestically, and with a china release confirmed. I think it's looking crazy unlikely to go under $2b even entirely from a logical non-view fan view.
 

Covid is still a massive factor with China. Combine that with WE2 coming out a month later you could only be looking at 100-200 million USD. 2 billion is more likely now... But not a forgone conclusion

 

[Fanboy]

6 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

A $185 million opening weekend which could lead to a $275 million week #1 total, assuming typical Cameron legs I could see this easily ending up with over $700 million domestic. If week #2 only drops 20-30% we're off to the races. 

Christmas Eve will have a big impact on its second weekend drop. If it opens to $185 Million and drops 30% 1 Billion Domestic is happening. If it drops 20% 2 billion is possible. Lol. 

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.

 

It's always curious to me how there is a large portion of people completely uninformed about box office in r/boxoffice, it's not like it is the Youtube comment section we're talking about. You'd think they gather there precisely because they are interested in box office...

 

[Borobudur]

I don't really care that much on the opening, I want to see SW:TFA biggest 2nd weekend record to go down! 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

I don't really care that much on the opening, I want to see SW:TFA biggest 2nd weekend record to go down! 

 

Won't happen. Even with a $200M OW, 2nd weekend Saturday is Christmas Eve which is basically the worst possible day for it. My hope is it's less than 55%.