Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

11 hours ago, The Futurist said:

These movies are gonna be on a scale we have never seen before.

We are going to witness something truly spectacular.

 

A2 4bil lets go

[IronJimbo]

I'm actually wondering how Jim could possibly spend over $1b on making these films, that's an obscene amount of money.

Will that $1b+ include marketing budget?

 

[aabattery]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

I'm actually wondering how Jim could possibly spend over $1b on making these films, that's an obscene amount of money.

Will that $1b+ include marketing budget?

 

 

I mean, $250M per film isn't that unbelievable a number. They've spent more on POTC movies and I imagine they've got more than enough stuff in these four to burn a billion dollars (and then some tbh).

[Warmaster506]

My favorite director ever coming to haunt all the competition.

[vc2002]

That so called "$1BN for 4 movies" is as true as IronJimbo's Cameron quotes.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm actually wondering how Jim could possibly spend over $1b on making these films, that's an obscene amount of money.

Will that $1b+ include marketing budget?

 

It's a believable number and on top of that cameron is getting 1b for 4 movies, isn't he?

 

So it's 500m non-marketing budget per movie (or 2b combined) for the sake of our math:

 

If some movie makes say 500 dom and 1.3b os for 1.8b ww,

then it gets the studio 275 (55% of 500m dom ) + 425 (33% of 1300m os) = 700m in theatrical revenue alone.

 

Not only does that cover the 500 (250 prod + 250 cameron) non-marketing budget, but also covers the global marketing budget (150-200 for tentpoles). It makes them 0-50m profit from theatrical alone with entire non-theatrical remaining.

 

So for 4 avatar movies to average 1.8b makes the 650-700 budget (250 production + 250 cameron + 150-200 global marketing) profitable just from theatrical (few tentpoles manage that). Non-theatrical from each is gravy as even marketing budget has been covered above.

 

What does it take for 4 movies to average 1.8b? something like:

2.5b a1

2.0b a2

1.5b a3

1.2b a4

= 7.2b (1.8 * 4)

 

And those numbers, especially a4 and a3, are very conservative. Especially considering what folks expect out of China, and that due to that market's growth sequels don't fall much. Eg: china is the only market where War of Apes is gonna beat Dawn of Apes (110m vs 105m).

Edited September 27, 2017 by a2knet

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

It's a believable number and on top of that cameron is getting 1b for 4 movies, isn't he?

 

So it's 500m non-marketing budget per movie (or 2b combined) for the sake of our math:

 

If some movie makes say 500 dom and 1.3b os for 1.8b ww, then it gets the studio 275 (55% of 500) + 425 (33% of 1.3 ) = 700 in theatrical revenue alone.

 

Not only does that cover the 500 (250 prod + 250 cameron) non-marketing budget, but also covers the entire global marketing budget easily (say 150-200 for tentpoles).

So makes them 0-50m profit from theatrical alone with entire non-theatrical remaining.

 

So for 4 avatar movies to average 1.8b (using above numbers) makes the 650-700 budget (250 'production' + 250 cameron + 150-200 global marketing) profitable just from theatrical. Non-theatrical from each is gravy as even marketing budget has been covered above.

 

What does it take for 4 movies to average 1.8b? something like:

2.5b a1

2.0b a2

1.5b a3

1.2b a4

= 7.2b (1.8 * 4)

 

And those numbers, especially a4 and a3, are very conservative.

Jimbo getting 1 bil is hilarious, love the guy. Also $10b is the floor.

 

 

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

 

I mean, $250M per film isn't that unbelievable a number. They've spent more on POTC movies and I imagine they've got more than enough stuff in these four to burn a billion dollars (and then some tbh).

I thought the fact they're doing all 4 movies in one production blast would make it less expensive.

 

23 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

That so called "$1BN for 4 movies" is as true as IronJimbo's Cameron quotes.

[The Futurist]

250m a pop is a bargain but does it include the giant self-sustainable in energy facility that was built specifically in New Zealand by Cameron to do the movies ?

Probably not.

And it s all shot together so where movie one ends and movie two begins is a very fluid idea.

[vc2002]

16 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

IronJimbo's Cameron quote image, we meet again.

[peludo]

I am not a Cameron lover, but I do not see that budget so high. It means $250m by film. John Carter cost that amount...

 

And if I remember well, the Hobbit trilogy was estimated to have cost about $800m. And it still was profitable.

 

I do not think that these sequels will repeat the first film massive success everywhere. It will be big, but not that big. And unless the films are crap, with China making tons of money, I can see each sequel making 2-2.5 billion, way more than enough to get huge benefits.

[Jay Beezy]

The only sequel likely to reach that height is the first one.

 

Whatever new visual allure these new Avatar movies bring will only apply to the first sequel. After that, if no one cares about the story (and who cared about the story of the first one; typical modern James Cameron), then don't count on the sequels making as much.

[peludo]

6 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

The only sequel likely to reach that height is the first one.

 

Whatever new visual allure these new Avatar movies bring will only apply to the first sequel. After that, if no one cares about the story (and who cared about the story of the first one; typical modern James Cameron), then don't count on the sequels making as much.

Of course, my theory of 2-2.5b for each sequel asumes that China makes about 700-1b with each film (the first one did $200m in 2010 and it ranked #1 during 4 1/2 years, something that any other film has been able to do).

Edited September 27, 2017 by peludo

[Cochofles]

People stll use the BS "who cared about Avatar's story" hyperbole? 

I cared about the story and the characters, and so did everyone I went to see it with, which makes that statement silly.

If I didn't care for the story or characters, I would not have been so moved and captivated by what happened to them and by the plot.

 

It's funny how when a film triumphs at pretty much every traditional standard of success used for modern films (critical reviews, box office, word of mouth, awards recognition), people have to make up stuff to diminish that film (because they have nothing to base their hate on).

The whole "nobody cares about the story/characters" is an amusing narrative that took a life of its own because the very vocal minority that hated Avatar keeps parroting it to this day.

And the "James Cameron" cannot write!" is the most laughable thing; not only can he write, he is probably the best cinematic storyteller working today.

 

 

 

[The Futurist]

Avatar was a big success only because of 3D and shiny colors !

 

Oh wait  ...

 

[Elessar]

40 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

The only sequel likely to reach that height is the first one.

 

Whatever new visual allure these new Avatar movies bring will only apply to the first sequel. After that, if no one cares about the story (and who cared about the story of the first one; typical modern James Cameron), then don't count on the sequels making as much.

Here we go again, people projecting themselves onto the whole population. A film doesn't get legs amazing as these because the visuals are pretty or Leo is hot. Nope, that's not how it works.

 

Yes, the sequels won't make as much, for similar reasons the sequels to TFA probably won't make as much.

Edited September 27, 2017 by Elessar

[KeepItU25071906]

 

 

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

 

Oh, wow, never underestimate Cameron. I did not expect this, that he'll take a page from Harry Potter and have young cast that young audience can grow up with. Very interesting and exciting. if they are great characters, the sky's the limit. Kids looks adorable, especially the girls. of course, it could be a flop casting like Narnia but hope not. 

[Cochofles]

14 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

 

“Nobody is watching Avatar [on home video] or waiting in four-hour lines at Disney’s World of Avatar or going to the sold-out Cirque du Soleil shows because of the film’s 3-D,” he points out. “People respond because of the movie’s characters, themes, and emotions—and we have all that again. When the cast read what Jim Cameron wrote, it hit them with even greater  resonance than the first movie.”

 

^^^Listen well, children.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

  

[Valonqar]

Kids are in! See IT success. Cameron has his finger on the audience's pulse. 

Edited September 27, 2017 by Valonqar