Joy | David O. Russell | Christmas 2015 | New Trailer on Page 20!

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, misafeco said:

She will get it, but the movie is out of the race.

 

So far the reviews of her performances aren't uniformly glowing enough to over come mediocre reviews and it's a strong field for best actress for a change, so I'd hope not.  There's no need to bend over to nominate JLaw because she gave a solid performance in a mediocre movie.  Theron and Mara should be above her. If Phoenix gets some Best Foreign Film buzz then hopefully Nina Hoss will as well though I doubt it   There's also Maggie Smith (In The Van), Emily Blunt (Sicaro), Blythe Danner. 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2015 by TalismanRing

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

So far the reviews of her performances aren't uniformly glowing enough to over come mediocre reviews and it's a strong field for best actress for a change, so I'd hope not.  Theron and Mara should be above her and if Phoenix gets some Best Foreign Film buzz then hopefully Nina Hoss will as well.

Theron is in no way a guarantee. She's a pipe dream more than anything else. The Academy is never that cool.

[misafeco]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

So far the reviews of her performances aren't uniformly glowing enough to over come mediocre reviews and it's  strong field for best actress for a change, so I'd hope not.

I don't think the best actress field is that strong. Only Ronan, Larson and Blanchett are sure bets.

[Infernus]

15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

So far the reviews of her performances aren't uniformly glowing enough to over come mediocre reviews and it's a strong field for best actress for a change, so I'd hope not.  There's no need to bend over to nominate JLaw because she gave a solid performance in a mediocre movie.  Theron and Mara should be above her. If Phoenix gets some Best Foreign Film buzz then hopefully Nina Hoss will as well though I doubt it   There's also Maggie Smith (In The Van), Emily Blunt (Sicaro), Blythe Danner. 

 

 

Also Carey Mulligan (Suffragete) and Charlotte Rampling (45 years).

[filmlover]

LOL Carey Mulligan is not happening. Her movie was seen by no one and is not in contention for anything anymore, and she's not going to be hitting the campaign trail after having just given birth in addition to all of the above.

[TalismanRing]

With the reviews for 45 I think Rampling is already considered in the top 5.  I'd love to see her win.

[Cochofles]

I would not discount warhorse Lily Tomlin. She has the never-before-nominated beloved veteran slot and the surprise nod that no one saw coming slot, plus truly glowing reviews.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

I would not discount warhorse Lily Tomlin. She has the never-before-nominated beloved veteran slot and the surprise nod that no one saw coming slot, plus truly glowing reviews.

She is an Oscar nominee (for 1975's Nashville).

[Joel M]

I wonder if some of the harshness of the reviews comes from the American Hustle overpraisal last year. I follow a lot of critics in twitter and I remember a lot of them giving glowing reviews to AH and then start backpedaling a little (or a lot) when Hustle became a real contender. I'm not saying it's getting terrible reviews just because of Hustle, but I think it could end up with a high 60s/low 70s RT score without a lot of critics waiting for an opportunity to take DOR down a peg.

 

I haven't seen the film obviously and I'm not at all a fan of DOR that wants to excuse him, but that's the vibe I got from the way the critic conversation around American Hustle shifted from early december to february.

[Ethan Hunt]

Welp...

[Wrath]

18 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

After seeing Spotlight I'm not really sold that can win BP. Definitely not sold on Inarritu pulling back to back BP's either. So if this is on par with his last 3 films I could see it being the frontrunner due to a relatively weak slate and DOR not getting his recognition yet. 

 

Spotlight was very good, but not quite great. Keaton and most of the cast were terrific, but Ruffalo was miscast, seriously overacted, and imo threw things off a bit. 

[Wrath]

2 hours ago, 75live said:

 

I dont' think it will flop either and this is coming from someone who doesn't think the movie ever looked good.

 

My guess is people are thinking this is the kind of movie that needs reviews to boost it so when the reviews look really bad right now (not that it can't change), it could theoretically hurt the film

 

Or something like that  

Not flop, perhaps, but with great reviews this could have been 120-140M. Now it'll be ~70M, maybe.

[mahnamahna]

Adjusted predicts

$14 million OW

$65 million DOM

 

Good reviews would get it $20-25 million OW, but the reception makes it look rough. Bodes well for the other Oscar contenders in January/February 

[Fancyarcher]

Cooper's been having a lousy year. Even his collaboration with O. Russell is getting a critical beating, and yeah I'd say Lawrence is not a safe nod anymore. 

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

She is an Oscar nominee (for 1975's Nashville).

Thanks!

I should've been more specific: she's never been nominated for Best Leading Actress.

[filmlover]

Before today I was thinking this would do similar business to It's Complicated (another female-targeted Christmas Day opener from six years ago when the holiday last fell on a Friday), but now after the reviews have come in I think it'll settle for around half of what Silver Linings Playbook/American Hustle made. Concussion and The Big Short have better reviews (and the marketing for the former has been extremely aggressive and effective so far) so they'll function as the go-to alternatives for adults against Star Wars.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Before today I was thinking this would do similar business to It's Complicated (another female-targeted Christmas Day opener from six years ago when the holiday last fell on a Friday), but now after the reviews have come in I think it'll settle for around half of what Silver Linings Playbook/American Hustle made. Concussion and The Big Short have better reviews (and the marketing for the former has been extremely aggressive and effective so far) so they'll function as the go-to alternatives for adults against Star Wars.

Christmas is gonna be an insane bloodbath. And I am including the January 8 weekend here. Bloodbath. 

[75Live]

RT finally learned how to do math and it's at 53% now.  At one point previously, it was 6 rotten 6 fresh and the rating was 33%.  lol   I think even the most mathematically challenged knew that was 50%  

[babz06]

The reviews will probably settle around 60s, so not a critical pan. It still looks like good counter programming for Star Wars, and i wasn't predicting it to reach Amerian Hustle heights anyways, Silver Linings and Fighter seemed like the better comparisons. 

17m OW

90m DOM

[babz06]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's biggest female skewing adult drama in the market though which sets it apart.

Sisters isnt going to be big competition. The trailers have been terrible and its rated-R. 

Daddy's Home is probably going to be the main competition for Joy since it's also a pg? comedy leaning towards the family audience.