ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

1. 1
   

   Grand Moff Tele 
    1,347
2. 2
   

   That One Guy 
    1,128
3. 3
   

   Porthos 
    1,061
4. 4
   

   Jayhawk 
    1,019
5. 5
   

   WrathOfHan 
    1,007

 

thnx m8s

Well, one of those up there is a fraud. Boosted by illegal Portuguese likes.

[Dingdong123]

I think Im the only one here that doesn't care bout R1 numbers lol.

 

but give me those sexy Moana holds! Rth please treat us Disney fans with Moana numbers soon thanks!

[babz06]

Just now, DAR said:

I wonder if Christmas Day could be bigger than expected since the majority of the NFL is playing Christmas Eve

Probably, historically everything takes steep drops on Christmas Eve

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Even giant openers in the summer like JW and The Avengers had to cope with the basic rules of how summer box office works.

 

Summer box office works 1 way, Holiday box office works another way. Doesn't matter the size of the opening, although it does play into it a bit. Holiday box office WILL mean better legs, no matter what happens.

No, every single 110m+ opener except for like 3 show that they work the same no matter the time of year (multis sub 3.2x). So I don't buy the argument that it's the season that determines it. The size of the opening is far more important. Also the few that did get higher than 3.2x multis were summer releases except for TFA. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by MovieMan89

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, DAR said:

I wonder if Christmas Day could be bigger than expected since the majority of the NFL is playing Christmas Eve

 

I don't think that means anything.  There's room for both.

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

I don't think that means anything.  There's room for both.

I know that.  I was thinking there's less games that Sunday so it could perhaps open it up

[terrestrial]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm hoping for an extra 2M from the west coast and late shows.

 

Does he know about the weather? The only time I remember out of my mind/head why he was rather high was him being in the heat of another region and missing the weather reports in a way.

[junkshop36]

25 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Again, pointing out that an $150m opening would be nearly +80% over the next non-TFA movie. Why the heck would you expect a similar multiplier to those movies, given this fact?

 

Because I just do. 

 

If it opens to 150m then I think the multi will land between 3 and 3.2, which would be on the low end of December multis. 

 

If you disagree that's cool. 

[Daxtreme]

Once more, Rth will rule the galaxy! And... we shall have numbers.

 

 

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Even giant openers in the summer like JW and The Avengers had to cope with the basic rules of how summer box office works.

 

Summer box office works 1 way, Holiday box office works another way. Doesn't matter the size of the opening, although it does play into it a bit. Holiday box office WILL mean better legs, no matter what happens.

 

Simply not true. I've said this before, but 90% of the reason for the big multipliers in December is because movies released in December underperform in their opening weekends (due to proximity to Christmas/weather). There's plenty of evidence from franchise sequels that open in December that show this effect. TFA was immune, and the only reason it got a huge multiplier was because of the amazing WOM. Judging by the size of Rogue One's opening, it also looks to be mostly immune from this effect, so 90% of the reason for huge multipliers in December won't exist for Rogue One.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Does he know about the weather? The only time I remember out of my mind/head why he was rather high was him being in the heat of another region and missing the weather reports in a way.

 

West Coast looks good tonight.  

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

1. 1
   

   Grand Moff Tele 
    1,347
2. 2
   

   That One Guy 
    1,128
3. 3
   

   Porthos 
    1,061
4. 4
   

   Jayhawk 
    1,019
5. 5
   

   WrathOfHan 
    1,007

 

thnx m8s

 

 

 

• Week
• Month
• Year
• All Time

1. 1
   

   Grand Moff Tele 
    29,006
2. 2
   

   Christmas Baumer 
    16,673
3. 3
   

   grim22 
    12,624
4. 4
   

   CJohn 
    12,601
5. 5
   

   WrathOfHan 
    12,412

 

 

[MrPink]

18 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Leaving for my 2nd showing in 20-30 minutes.

 

Probably gonna have to drive @MrPink home because he thinks I'm his personal Uber driver 

 

 

Blame the Metro!

[Arlborn]

I'm blown away; I loved this movie in a way I didn't think I would.  It really is the perfect prequel for A New Hope.

 

It might just be my second 10/10 of the year.

[MovieMan89]

All the Hunger Games movies, the Twilight sequels, Deadpool, Alice in Wonderland, Furious 7, BvS, DH1, TFA...these are all the 110m+ openers outside of summer and they all adhered to an under 3x multi rule except for the one with insane WOM. So it's not a summer thing, it's an opening weekend thing. 

[DeeCee]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Does he know about the weather? The only time I remember out of my mind/head why he was rather high was him being in the heat of another region and missing the weather reports in a way.

 

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

West Coast looks good tonight.  

And he is in the heat of another "region".

[Captain H]

I think y'all are wrong in the multi discussion. It's not doing doing <3x or 3-3.4x. It's doing >4x 

[hw64]

18 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Doesn't matter the size of the opening, although it does play into it a bit. Holiday box office WILL mean better legs, no matter what happens.

 

Also, you do realize the implications of this statement, right?

 

If what you are saying was true, then imagine this scenario. You put The Avengers in the summer, it opens to $200m and makes $600m total, for about a 3.0x multiplier.

 

If you put it in December, it opens to the same amount and magically gets a 4.0x multiplier instead of a 3.0x one, and magically generates $200m more at the box office than what it would have in the summer.

 

It just doesn't make ANY sense at all and isn't consistent with reality. Movies opening in December do not magically make hundreds of millions more at the box office just by virtue of the holidays. If they did, December would be the most packed month in the entire year and every studio would be vying to put their blockbusters in December at all costs.

Edited December 17, 2016 by hw64

[JonathanLB]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No, every single 110m+ opener except for like 3 show that they work the same no matter the time of year (multis sub 3.2x). So I don't buy the argument that it's the season that determines it. The size of the opening is far more important. Also the few that did get higher than 3.2x multis were summer releases except for TFA. 

 

I don't think you understand the basic underlying reasons for a higher multiple, so you don't think there's any particular reason people say "holiday legs." You think they're being superstitious or just using small movies as examples to fit their bias. That's not actually what's going on here. Why do summer movies have lower multiples? Let's take a basic look:

 

1) There is INTENSE competition at the blockbuster level during the summer, with a big movie opening virtually every week and most assuredly every two weeks, all summer long, often from early May through early August. Each movie, being similar in target demographics, cannibalizes the previous movie or movies, not only in drawing attention from them, or in drawing crowds from them, but actually drawing theaters from them. You lose your IMAX screens quickly because "the next big thing" comes out in a week or two. You lose your other PLF screens, like RPX or D-Box, because of the next big thing. With those losses, your average ticket price sinks and your theater count shrinks prematurely.

 

2) Summer is wonderful, we all love the weather and beaches and pools and hiking or whatever it is you do, but it also means a lot of distractions for outdoor activities versus indoor. People go have fun during the day, enjoy the weather, and focus shifts to taking in the sun when there's free time. Movie theaters provide a nice air conditioned escape, yes, but that's more so at night. 

 

3) While school is out, which helps the weekday numbers massively over, say, February, adults all work. Many of us -- myself included -- have much busier work schedules in the summer than in the winter (where business is dead until the new year). 

 

These are the reasons for high holiday multiples:

 

1) Virtually all schools are out between December 15 and January 2, with many more out a week before that, or staying out until a week after that (colleges, mainly). 

 

2) Many, many adults if not most adults take vacation time around the holidays, either to be with family, their kids, or just relax a bit. Many companies, like mine, prefer our employees to take time off now because business is slow. Unless you work in retail (which is huge), this is the slowest time of the year for most industries. Nobody pulls the trigger on business-to-business expenditures because they're waiting for budget planning for the next year, key executives go on vacation so the decision process comes to a halt, and people enjoy some time off.

 

3) With weekdays that play much like weekend days for the final two weeks of the year, movies opening on the frame that TFA and Rogue One opened on ARE going to enjoy better multiples. It's unavoidable. It works even with a monster opening weekend like TFA. That's simply because people have more TIME to go see movies, and they do, during the week. 

 

4) With the weather being crappy almost everywhere, going to see a movie is one of the few "going out" activities that many people can do, besides eating, and since dinner and a movie are a pretty common occurrence, there you have the recipe for large holiday box office. 

 

It's not some random superstitious occurrence, you can clearly examine the underpinnings of WHY holiday movies enjoy better multiples. 

 

PS: Nobody wants to say it for fear of sounding crazy, but yes, you do sacrifice some OW sales to get the holiday multiplier. And yes, that means I think TFA would have opened to $275M or more in the summer, absolutely. It would have been more front-loaded and could have opened to $300M frankly. That's only $52M ahead of where it opened, and if people knew they couldn't go see it Monday or Tuesday, they'd have seen it on one of the weekends, which would have either led to an even smaller 2nd weekend decline or an even larger opening weekend. My bet is on the first. 

[The Futurist]

I am afraid Passengers is gonna cut short Rogue1's legs unfortunately.

 

Spoiler

Said no one ever.