The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-first-man-venom-1202972814/

 

Don't feel confident over First Man's projections, but this all seems legit.

 

I'm not feeling any of those projections yet and with the current level of presales, I'd be leery going high on anything this weekend b/c it's between a huge holiday weekend (Venom/Star) last weekend and a HUGE opener coming the following weekend (Halloween).  This could be the forgotten little weekend where everyone does their fall fests, MLB playoff watching, haunted hayrides, etc, so they are ready for the next one:)...

 

It's just we do see a lot of "letdown" openers after wild breakout-over-tracking weekends the week prior...

Edited October 10, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

My theater is booking First Man for the PLF screen while the other screen is in one of the smaller auditoriums (60 seats). Granted six other movies are opening this weekend (even though half of them are getting placed in the smallest theaters), but still. Inclined to think mid-teens is where it will debut now.

[TwoMisfits]

When you know presales for First Man are poor...

 

Universal is now giving any military member or vet a free ticket to the 1st Thursday night shows at every theater (limited to 1st 25 folks per theater...but that's a LOT of "paid" seats by Uni)...this is a bad sign...

 

Although 3000ish screens x $10/ticket x 25 people = $750K in automatic Thursday night minimum sales, right?

Edited October 10, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[La Binoche]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-first-man-venom-1202972814/

 

Don't feel confident over First Man's projections, but this all seems legit.

 

 

That'd be a pretty steep drop for ASIB. I wonder what they're basing it on. 

[dxmatrixdt]

10 hours ago, DAJK said:

America sucks if First Man opens below 20M. Would love to see a weekend where 3 movies go above 30

are you expecting Star is Born to hold above 30, or Goosebumps 2 ?

[LegendaryBen]

12 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

 

That'd be a pretty steep drop for ASIB. I wonder what they're basing it on. 

I doubt it will drop that high.

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, gravestonedt said:

are you expecting Star is Born to hold above 30, or Goosebumps 2 ?

Star. Just saw it so yea im pretty confident it will hold well

[Damianport1]

Variety is crazy if they think ASIB might really drop 62% this weekend

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909
Goosebumps 2	300	631
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481
*4pm-12am

[KeepItU25071906]

I definitely expected bigger numbers for the "First Man" 

Edited October 10, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Krissykins]

So Bad Times has a range of 8-12 with some expecting 17.

 

Hopefully it breaks out a bit. Under $10m would suck. But that last Fandango update points to sub 10m. 

[VENOM]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So Bad Times has a range of 8-12 with some expecting 17.

 

Hopefully it breaks out a bit. Under $10m would suck. But that last Fandango update points to sub 10m. 

It’s not too late for them to rename it Bad times at the box office

[Nova]

Sub 20M for First Man 

Sub 10M for Bad Times 

Goose Bumps probably around 15M 

 

*The most interesting thing about this weekend will be to see how well Venom and A Star Is Born hold 

[MattW]

I'm expecting 25-28 for ASIB. No way it goes under 23.

[MrGlass2]

ASiF always dominates Fandango in the morning, but it is absolutely crushing Venom today. It will probably win in dailies very soon.

[Eric the Minion]

Upcoming releases

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday
Halloween	1535	1659
Bohemian	254	281
Nutcracker	0	45
Fantastic Beasts	1	31

 

 

[el sid]

15 minutes of Pulse 4 hours ago:
First Man: 19
Bad Times: 13
Goosebumps 2: 8

Halloween: 12
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 5
Rhapsody: 4

15 minutes 3 hours ago:
Goosebumps 2: 26 - that's behind The House With a Clock which had 60 same day and daytime and Smallfoot with 46
First Man: 24 - also still a bit meager: Not the best comparison but e.g. The Equalizer 2 had 51 same day and daytime, M: I6 120
Bad Times: 11

Halloween: 24
Rhapsody: 5
FB 2: 3

And 15 minutes of Pulse one hour ago:
First Man: 56 – strange, much better now
Goosebumps 2: 35 – The House With a Clock had 40 same day and daytime, so it also improved
Bad Times: 25

Halloween: 29

[DAJK]

Yeesh. First Man isn’t selling well AT ALL.

 

at least I won’t have to worry about pre-buying my Tuesday IMAX tickets 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Spectre]

I don't know that I'd judge First Man solely based on presales... I feel like a lot of the target audience is of the walk-up variety.

[tonytr87]

Man, Gosling can't catch a break. One of the greatest movie stars of his generation and soulless American don't care.