The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

What about BP?

52.4%

[Deep Wang]

Well, I sent up the Wang signal, which is...well you don't want to know what it is.  

 

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

Well, I sent up the Wang signal, which is...well you don't want to know what it is.  

 

[FlashMaster659]

$175M OW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-will-captain-marvel-soar-higher-further-faster-than-past-march-openers/

[RealLyre]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$175M OW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-will-captain-marvel-soar-higher-further-faster-than-past-march-openers/

their range is 150M-190M..

 

I guess it's possible if the thursday previews are high (24M+) but they don't seem to take into account that this movie is going to be front-loaded

[Cooper Legion]

I’m in complete agreement with BOP, if you told me to put a 45M range somewhere rounded to the nearest 5s that’s exactly where Ikd put it.      

 

Rolling tracker up to 60.8, but the linear projection from same point Fandango yesterday is 72k and I think that should mostly increase throughout the day.

[Stewart]

19 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$175M OW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-will-captain-marvel-soar-higher-further-faster-than-past-march-openers/

@Shawn what's with the redesign? 

 

Also very ballsy but likely given figures we've seen in this thread. 

 

Soooo when's this superhero fatigue supposed to happen?

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

I feel like O8, ASIB and Mammia Mia are films that women go see with a lot of friends. I wonder about Captain Marvel since the genre is so typically skewed toward males, if we see the same effect or not.

1

 

3 hours ago, Nova said:

I did mention that a couple of weeks ago when Deep Wang gave us an update. Female movies tend to be more presales heavy simply because women like to plan ahead and stuff. I'm not sure if Captain Marvel will fall into the same category because as you said it's more likely to have a bigger male audience than your typical female led film. But I do think its important to remember that Captain Marvel will most likely skew more female than your typical CBM so that needs to be taken into account. 

 

According to Victoria Alonso, Senior VP at Marvel Studios, 51% of Marvel Studios audience is female.  I think it’s outdated to assume this genre, or at least, the MCU, is a male-driven franchise.  It’s a full-on four-quad monster.  It also helps that you have people who watched Iron Man as young adults that are now bring their kids to CM / End Game.

 

So while I’m exercising caution, and keeping what Nova said in mine, if half of the MCU audience already has those pre-sale habits in mind, the best comps will be Black Panther and Infinity War.  And if look at those using CoolEric's data, Carol’s about ready to wreck shit up this weekend.

 

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Who thinks I should ask for another update today?

Please and thank you, sir.

[Rebeccas]

Aren't Marvel's opening weekend audiences more male skewing though?

[DAJK]

I'm just kind of wondering if this ends up like a Civil War 2.0 where predictions go crazy but the actual box office (while still huge) comes a bit more back down to Earth. BOP predicted 200, ended up with 179. Kinda wondering if this does stall somewhat around 150-155

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm just kind of wondering if this ends up like a Civil War 2.0 where predictions go crazy but the actual box office (while still huge) comes a bit more back down to Earth. BOP predicted 200, ended up with 179. Kinda wondering if this does stall somewhat around 150-155

if CM doesn't match Black Panther's previews, then 150s is the most probable scenario imo.

 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm just kind of wondering if this ends up like a Civil War 2.0 where predictions go crazy but the actual box office (while still huge) comes a bit more back down to Earth. BOP predicted 200, ended up with 179. Kinda wondering if this does stall somewhat around 150-155

Yeah for some reason, it may be all the babies screaming about it, but I just don't know if I can go for more than $150m right now.  

 

The numbers are definitely there, and it will open huge, but the walkups are there this reaches the next level, and MCU is very GA friendly and I'm sure I'm over thinking it, but I can't help but be more cautious than I would be otherwise with numbers like these.

[Barnack]

If a movie with those trailer/reception/budget/almost unknown hero open at freaking $150M+, that would show how strong the brand currently is. This is getting crazy.

Edited March 7, 2019 by Barnack

[expensiveho]

45 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm just kind of wondering if this ends up like a Civil War 2.0 where predictions go crazy but the actual box office (while still huge) comes a bit more back down to Earth. BOP predicted 200, ended up with 179. Kinda wondering if this does stall somewhat around 150-155

$150m with 2.3x legs as the worst case scenario is still pretty amazing (and far above what anyone could've predicted before BP broke out last year)

[ThomasNicole]

48 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm just kind of wondering if this ends up like a Civil War 2.0 where predictions go crazy but the actual box office (while still huge) comes a bit more back down to Earth. BOP predicted 200, ended up with 179. Kinda wondering if this does stall somewhat around 150-155

For debut maybe, but legs probably will be much better than the 2.27x CW have 

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$175M OW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-will-captain-marvel-soar-higher-further-faster-than-past-march-openers/

Quote

Fandango announced this week that Marvel is the company’s top pre-seller since Avengers: Infinity War, while independent research reveals pre-sales activity is not far off the pace of Black Panther (with a noticeable portion of sales occurring beyond

Senpai noticed us 😛 

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If a movie with those trailer/reception/budget/almost unknown hero open at freaking $150M+, that would show how strong the brand currently is. This is getting crazy.

[terrestrial]

Does someone know about Dallas' (Texas, in case there is more than one Dallas) BO for preview night?

Someone at Twitter says (with lots of screenshots) not many seats are sold after the first screening at 18:00 o'clock. Like 19:00 or later = nearly empty, but shows at 18:00 are full, even sold out.

[terrestrial]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Senpai noticed us

Not sure who Senpai is, but you are aware about past connections to BOP and ... ?

[TalismanRing]

59 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

 

According to Victoria Alonso, Senior VP at Marvel Studios, 51% of Marvel Studios audience is female.  I think it’s outdated to assume this genre, or at least, the MCU, is a male-driven franchise.  It’s a full-on four-quad monster.  It also helps that you have people who watched Iron Man as young adults that are now bring their kids to CM / End Game.

 

So while I’m exercising caution, and keeping what Nova said in mine, if half of the MCU audience already has those pre-sale habits in mind, the best comps will be Black Panther and Infinity War.  And if look at those using CoolEric's data, Carol’s about ready to wreck shit up this weekend.

 

Please and thank you, sir.

Interesting.  I wonder if that takes into account the aftermarket or more women really do come tht much later to see films

 

MPAA - Comscore survey data for the first 2 weeks of release

 

2017  Top 5 Releases F/M % split after 2 wekes

 

WW: 52/48

GOTG2  - 46/ 54 (closer than GOTG 1)

SMHC: - 41/ 59

B&tB: - 66/ 34

SWTLJ: 40/61 (yeah that's what they printed)

 

Overall 2017 releases 51/49