The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	213	8514	24698	16184	65.53%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	400

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #1 (VERY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	277.88		402	5564		0/131	8041/13605	40.90%		57.52m
EG	75.90		457	20371		28/254	5666/26037	78.24%		45.54m
TROS (adj)	n/a		382	15461		7/213	7989/23450	65.93%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	332.34		151	4069		1/92	6077/10146	40.10%		46.86m
TROS (adj)	n/a		301	13523		7/213	5782/19305	70.05%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	166.27		8133		13523		30.93m
Solo	233.60		5789		13523		32.94m
JW:FK	217.13		6228		13523		33.22m
AM&tW	293.66		4605		13523		33.77m
Venom	320.19		4493		14386		32.02m
CM	146.51		10553		15461		30.33m
EG	58.00		26655		15461		34.80m
TLK	140.85		10977		15461		32.40m
It 2	285.99		5659		16184		30.03m
AVG							32.27m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

Seats sold nearly doubled today (400 v 215) despite not a single showing being added.  And considering how many seats had been sold already, that's no mean feat at all.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Seats sold nearly doubled today (400 v 215) despite not a single showing being added.  And considering how many seats had been sold already, that's no mean feat at all.

I think that happened for all films. Right?

I mean even EG & CM comp is about double yesterday.

 

CM sell 5k seats in last 4 days. TRS shall be around 4.5-4.75k I guess, that gives 20.25k final, which will be $38mn for CM comp while $46mn for EG. Sacramento will be suggesting I guess close to EG comp.

 

Looking at MTC Previews data compared with EG, I am sorta convinced for $40mn plus Previews but its Thursday that matters.

[charlie Jatinder]

Nationwide estimates for SW: TRS are at $88mn Approx.

A very good increase in last two days, going by the pace, TRS shall beat TLJ in final pre-sales, may be even TFA. 

MTC 1 may be a little behind two, but MTC 2 is growing, which will be pushing Nationwide up. 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

I think that happened for all films. Right?

I mean even EG & CM comp is about double yesterday.

EG added a ton of showings on that relative Sat (adding 11 showings due in large part to the new theater opening) and CM was at a far lesser penetration on seat percentage.  Thus there were a lot of open/great seats to select that TROS simply doesn't have (TROS last added showings on Thr, and only two in that case).

 

As for where I think this will end up?  Well I'm far too biased to say.

 

But I think Sacto will suggest anywhere from 42m to 47m, depending on the comp.  Since Sacto could very well be over-performing, I won't suggest a final number quite yet.  Except to say that we've had over-performers before in Sacto and they could be a 'worst case' type comp.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Deleted post

Edited December 16, 2019 by Ms Lady Hawk
Meant to post in WW84 thread

[jason1230]

18 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Star Wars franchise is one of the strongest around. Yet, Rise of Skywalker’, which is expected to open between 180-210 million “only” has 34 million views on its main YouTube channel for the first trailer. 

TLJ had a similar number before it came out.

[Knights of Ren]

26 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Star Wars franchise is one of the strongest around. Yet, Rise of Skywalker’, which is expected to open between 180-210 million “only” has 34 million views on its main YouTube channel for the first trailer. The main thing is that the WW84 trailer was certainly enough to whet the appetite and anticipation for the movie.

Haven’t we learned by now that trailer views don’t matter much

[StarWarsMemer]

What's the ratio of tickets sold at MTC 1/MTC 2 to the gross? Like if a movie sells 100K tickets in previews, what would b the approximate gross of the previews

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:

What's the ratio of tickets sold at MTC 1/MTC 2 to the gross? Like if a movie sells 100K tickets in previews, what would b the approximate gross of the previews

About $1.2 - 1.4 million for previews. 

Edited December 16, 2019 by VenomXXR

[narniadis]

@keysersoze123 your last data highlights why the 24th is such a rough day. Early closings for theaters mean a lot less show times overall.

[Justin4125]

2 hours ago, Knights of Ren said:

Haven’t we learned by now that trailer views don’t matter much

Detective Pikachu's trailer had twice as many views prior to OW than the trailer for TROS, simple math TROS OW should be around 25M-30M. I feel bad for you guys going through all this pre-sale data....

 

Seriously though I completely agree, the insane variation in trailer views to OW ratios on boxofficereport should put the trailer view argument to bed. Trailer views might help indicate interest for movies in a very general way, especially for movies where we have poor comps and little data, but for movies like TROS they are more or less irrelevant 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Justin4125

[Valonqar]

Any Cats and Little Women tracking? 

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

Detective Pikachu's trailer had twice as many views prior to OW than the trailer for TROS, simple math TROS OW should be around 25M-30M. I feel bad for you guys going through all this pre-sale data....

 

Seriously though I completely agree, the insane variation in trailer views to OW ratios on boxofficereport should put the trailer view argument to bed. Trailer views might help indicate interest for movies in a very general way, especially for movies where we have poor comps and little data, but for movies like TROS they are more or less irrelevant 

Plus there are probably hundreds of different places people can go to watch the trailer by this point in time. I don't think we can make an accurate judgement at all of how many people are watching the trailer based on the views of one trailer alone.

[filmlover]

Good reviews for Spies in Disguise so far for the most part.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

On 12/13/2019 at 10:59 AM, Jayhawk said:

TROS 12/13 Update #9 (Last Update 12/9)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	2128	3252	$16.54	$37,190.00	65.44%	(+) 132	(+) $2,147.50
Friday	2764	5117	$14.62	$41,514.75	54.02%	(+) 184	(+) $2,692.25
Saturday	2570	5117	$14.62	$37,658.50	50.22%	(+) 121	(+) $1,860.25
Sunday	1756	4895	$14.53	$25,265.00	35.87%	(+) 212	(+) $3,225.00
Total	9218	18381	$15.36	$141,628.25	50.15%	(+) 649	(+) $9,925.00

 

TROS 12/16 Update #10 (Last Update 12/13)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	2235	3252	$16.54	$38,931.75	68.73%	(+) 107	(+) $1,741.75
Friday	2907	5117	$14.62	$43,746.50	56.81%	(+) 143	(+) $2,231.75
Saturday	2787	5117	$14.62	$40,899.50	54.47%	(+) 217	(+) $3,241.00
Sunday	1932	4895	$14.53	$27,943.50	39.47%	(+) 176	(+) $2,678.50
Total	9861	18381	$15.37	$151,521.25	53.65%	(+) 643	(+) $9,893.00

 

Overall, a very strong week, preview sales pace is strong and the weekend numbers continue to impress. Will be doing daily updates from now on until Thursday.

[el sid]

Cats, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 23 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 13 (total tickets sold for Friday, only 1 showtime so far)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 16 / 8 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 /11 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 14 / 24 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): 15 / 9 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 5 / 4 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 49 / 65 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 20 / 5 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 67 / 37 (1 showtime)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 237 and for Friday: 176.

Strange that in several theaters it's getting only one showtime so far on Friday. Do they think that TROS will have all the admissions anyway?
Difficult for me to find comps: Blinded by the Light (4.3M OW) had on Wednesday 0/95 sold tickets, OUATIH had on Monday 1.469/1.231 and Charlie's Angels also on Monday 140/210 (but with way more showtimes on Friday).
So so far its presales are as expected pretty muted. Maybe they improve if it has good reviews.

And TROS, also counted at 10 am EST (still only one theater today but on Wednesday I will count it in 10 theaters because for that day I have all the comps):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 640 (total tickets sold for Thursday, 9 showtimes, 1 added) / 926 (total tickets sold for Friday, still 14 showtimes).

Last Wednesday it were 601 and 847 sold tickets, means it increased by 7% and 10%. Not the biggest jumps but almost all shows are already very crowded (they should add a few more) and it's still looking good in comparison to e.g. It 2 (91.1M OW) which had in this theater on the same day = Monday 384/413 sold tickets.
TLK (191.8M OW) had on Wednesday two days before it was released 882/1.160 (but with 14 and 27 showtimes) so TROS is now at 72% and 80% of TLK with two days left.

[RockyMountain]

Reviews come out Wednesday morning (believe the press screenings are tomorrow evening) if reviews end up being good with these types of presale numbers could we potentially be looking at a 230+ OW?

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Reviews come out Wednesday morning (believe the press screenings are tomorrow evening) if reviews end up being good with these types of presale numbers could we potentially be looking at a 230+ OW?

230 is extremely unlikely right now. Not sure how many times I have to say that good reviews won’t change much of anything. They're already baked in to expectations.  It’s not like good reviews -> bigger, bad reviews -> remains on course. It’s good reviews -> remains on course, bad reviews -> smaller.

[StarWarsMemer]

How's Canada doing relative to US

[Lordmandeep]

20 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Reviews come out Wednesday morning (believe the press screenings are tomorrow evening) if reviews end up being good with these types of presale numbers could we potentially be looking at a 230+ OW?

 

 

No one will be really caring about good reviews for this really as I think fanbase will be focusing on reception amoung the fans due to the last film.