The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@captainwondyful I am assuming you will track Lincoln Sq.

Yup.  LS13 and Cinemagic for this.  I took a look at 25's 26 showings on Thursday and went LOL I'm so glad keysersoze handles that nonsense.

 

I Miiiiight do a Final Count Day Of, just because I tend to do my final seat counts for screens 10 minutes before it starts, not just stop at a 4PM/7PM cut off.  So for It 2 Comps for Frozen and TROS, I'll want those consistent.  Otherwise, Go With God.

Edited August 1, 2019 by captainwondyful

[charlie Jatinder]

So what are we looking at previews for Hobbs and Shaw. 

 

Previews will be 26% approx of Opening day IMO. A 30% bump over True Friday on Saturday and then 23-24% Sunday dip. 

 

So basically 10.25x Previews.

I guess if you guys are thinking of 4, Meg numbers for it.

[el sid]

Hobbs & Shaw, sold tickets for the previews today and for Friday, counted today at ca. 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 535 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 815 (total tickets sold for Friday, 21 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 288 / 405 (13 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 221 / 251 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 258 / 264 (28 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 136 / 51 (16 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 56 / 99 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 155 / 109 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 447 / 709 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 315 / 286 (19 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 494 / 418 (17 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Thursday for Thursday: 2.902 and for Friday: 3.407.

Stuber had on Thursday 457 / 441 sold tickets, Crawl 417 / 334, OUATIH 3.644 / 2.765 and TLK 9.101 / 9.705.
H&S increased compared to yesterday by 29% and 26%.
H&S's previews start later so probably the Friday number is more sound for comps. I guess now that a weekend under 50M is impossible because it's in front of OUATIH (on Friday) and will probably have better walk ups and a better multiplier. So 60M+?

Edited August 1, 2019 by el sid

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So what are we looking at previews for Hobbs and Shaw. 

 

Previews will be 26% approx of Opening day IMO. A 30% bump over True Friday on Saturday and then 23-24% Sunday dip. 

 

So basically 10.25x Previews.

I guess if you guys are thinking of 4, Meg numbers for it.

For a spin off a huge fan based franchise I'd guess the previews would be more in the 8-9x range.  But with previews looking very low compared to the recent F&F movies a  10x wouldn't be out of the question.

 

 

 

 

[Firepower]

F&F is one of the most backloaded franchises ever in foreign markets. Not sure about US, but I'd be really surprised if its OW is below 60, no matter of pre-sales.

[TalismanRing]

Latest F&F movies Preview # and Multi.  Both in April

 

FAST8    2017-04-14    Fast & Furious 8     10.40 /    45.7/    98.8/    4.4/     9.5

FAST7    2015-04-03    Fast & Furious 7     15.80/    67.4/    147.2/    4.3/    9.3

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

@Porthos @CoolEric258 @captainwondyful and the rest of the tracking gang, do your thing

 

[Porthos]

BTW, @CoolEric258 there.  THERE'S YOUR DAMN GIF, ALRIGHT?!?

 

Spoiler

NOT EVEN ONE DAY!  ONE!!!!

 

[keysersoze123]

As I said earlier, this will play stronger in smaller markets than Once Upon last week and so the anecdotal tracking we are doing is not painting the complete picture. it will open better than what we are extrapolating from anecdotal data.

[vafrow]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I said earlier, this will play stronger in smaller markets than Once Upon last week and so the anecdotal tracking we are doing is not painting the complete picture. it will open better than what we are extrapolating from anecdotal data.

Looking at the regions people are pulling from in the last few pages, you're seeing moderate markets that probably are a good proxy for national extrapolation (Denver, Sacramento , Calgary). 

 

I'd also say that while this is clearly a better middle America play than OUATIH, the F&F brand has always had diverse audiences. 

 

 

[Tinalera]

Toronto is performing decently it seems from the ones i cover. Im too late for thursday count with half day over. Im not predicting weekend because ill probably botch a guess lol.

 

 

[MattW]

I wonder about how accurate the previews estimates are, is it possible H&S does 4.7 tonight but the estimate we get is 5.0 bc it looks better for example. Rth never gives preview estimates which I think means the data isn't available in the same way that it becomes available on opening day, so perhaps preview numbers aren't subject to the same level of scrutiny.

Edited August 1, 2019 by MattW

[TalismanRing]

23 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Hobbs & Shaw (WED: 4pm)

27/301 (2D)
14/301

10/301

(One new show added  but inaccessible)

27/320 (RPX)
15/320

 

93/1543 =6.03%

 

OUITIH: (WED 4pm)  159/1179 = 13.48%    -  $3.39m
X-Men 6 (WED 3:15pm)  209/942 = 22.19%  -  $2.22m (really front loaded even for a CBM)

Shazam: (WED: 3:30pm)  129 / 2229 = 5.78% - $4.25m

 

[I'll try and update this around 7pm and give the Preview Ratios with those below]

 

Edit: 9 more tickets sold

 

Hobbs & Shaw (WED: 7pm)

32/301 (2D)
14/301

10/301

(One new show added  but inaccessible)

31/320 (RPX)
15/320

 

102/1543 =6.61%

 

Godzilla 2 (Wed 7:45pm) 135/ 1915 = 7.04%  -  $4.68m

TLK: (WED 7pm)  557/3228 = 17.26% - $4.21m

TOY STORY 4: (WED 7:30) 233/2049 = 11.37% - $5.25m

 

Throwing out the low  and high (CBM & Animation) so far it looks like $3.5-4.5m previews. 

 

Forget the luxury of F&F comps - I wish I had JW:HK or even Skyskraper /  Rampage comps.

 

H&S (THUR  4pm) (Previews start at 7pm)

 

60/301
39/301
13/301
52/320
17/320

181/ 1543 = 11.73%

 

Previews at 4pm

OUATIH: THUR 4:15PM - 335/1179 = 28.41%  --- $3.13m  / Minus the 4:15 pm show - 240 - $4.37m

SHAZAM - THUR 3:30pm  187 / 2229 = 8.3%  --- $5.71m  (don't have the 4pm showing numbers on hand)

GODZILLA -Thur 3:30pm - 204 / 2150 = 9.488% - $5.5m (ditto)

 

Previews at 6pm

X-Men 6 (THUR 3:45pm) = 272/942 = 28.87% -  $3.32m

Edited August 1, 2019 by TalismanRing

[FlashMaster659]

Hobbs and Shaw - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

7:00 PM - 186/203

10:30 PM - 151/203

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM  - 56/78

8:30 PM - 42/60

9:00 PM - 29/63

9:30 PM - 9/63

10:00 PM - 19/61

11:00 PM - 13/78

 

2D

 

7:15 PM  - 53/114

7:45 PM - 29/79

8:00 PM - 83/217

8:15 PM - ?/?

9:45 PM - 8/167

10:45 PM - 2/114

11:15 PM - 4/217

 

Total

 

684/1717 (39.8%)

 

1.1652x as many seats sold as Once Upon A Time in Hollywood mid-day of previews

 

*Glitched sellout. Not being counted.

[Porthos]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:20pm - 12:55pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	128	12318	14326	2008	14.02%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night:         2 

Total Seats Added Today:                           410

Total Seats Sold Today:                              500

 

Apparently I don't have ANY good comps for this film given its sale pattern.  Might throw in some others at the last moment, or I might change them entirely after thinking about it some more. But here are recent comps.  DON'T TAKE MUCH (if anything) FROM THESE:

 

Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

0.7580x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu mid day of premiere.       [4.47m]

0.8051x as many tickets sold as John Wick 3 mid day of premiere.                [4.59m]

0.6496x as many tickets sold as Aladdin mid day of premiere.                      [4.55m]

0.8416x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters mid day of premiere.  [5.30m]

0.2188x as many tickets sold as The Lion King mid day of premiere.             [5.03m]

 

T-0 Mid Day:

Pika       392 seats sold [0 sellouts/112 shows |  7619/10268 seats  | 2649 seats sold |  25.80% sold]

Wick 3   419 seats sold [0 sellouts/81 shows   |  7968/10462 seats  | 2494 seats sold |  23.84% sold]

Aladdin  585 seats sold [0 sellouts/117 shows | 10762/13853 seats | 3091 seats sold |  22.31% sold]

KotM     398 seats sold [0 sellouts/125 shows | 13097/15483 seats | 2386 seats sold |  15.41% sold]

TLK     1139 seats sold [0 sellouts/288 shows | 18654/27831 seats  | 9177 seats sold |  32.97% sold]

 

Adjusted Comp (also probably lol - use at own risk)

0.3767x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid day of premiere.  [5.76m]

 

T-0 Mid Day:

JW2         761 seats sold [0 sellouts/147 shows |   8762/13715 seats | 4953 seats sold |  36.11% sold]

H&S(adj)  447 seats sold [0 sellouts/128 shows | 10787/12653 seats | 1866 seats sold |  14.75% sold]

 

====

 

Out of all of these, Wick 3 is probably still the best comp due to lack of 3D and late PLF add, but even that's a bit weak due to R-rated film versus PG-13. 

 

I'd take both the KotM and JW2 comps with a grain of salt due to aforementioned lack of 3D and a much lower PLF penetration. At the same time Pika Pika had matinees, so grain of salt right back at it.  And Aladdin and Pika Pika would have had more kids tickets purchased.

 

Those quibbles aside, it's definitely trending upward.  Feeling pretty good still about at least 5m.  Not entirely sure it has the juice to reach 6m though.  Just have to wait and see, I suppose.

 

Hell of a lot better than the 2.5m to 3m comps I was getting last week at least.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Porthos

[FlashMaster659]

Hobbs and Shaw - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 24/532

10:15 PM - 0/532

 

2D

 

7:30 PM - 8/404

8:00 PM - 0/411

8:30 PM - 0/128

9:00 PM - 0/196

9:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/404

11:15 PM - 0/411

11:30 PM - 0/155

 

Total

 

32/3511 (0.9%)

 

2.9091x as many seats sold as Men In Black: International mid-day of previews

0.1928x as many seats sold as Dark Phoenix mid-day of previews

0.0654x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters mid-day of previews

0.3441x as many seats sold as Once Upon A Time in Hollywood mid-day of previews

[TalismanRing]

17 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Hobbs and Shaw - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 24/532

10:15 PM - 0/532

 

2D

 

7:30 PM - 8/404

8:00 PM - 0/411

8:30 PM - 0/128

9:00 PM - 0/196

9:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/404

11:15 PM - 0/411

11:30 PM - 0/155

 

Total

 

32/3511 (0.9%)

 

2.9091x as many seats sold as Men In Black: International mid-day of previews

0.1928x as many seats sold as Dark Phoenix mid-day of previews

0.0654x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters mid-day of previews

0.3441x as many seats sold as Once Upon A Time in Hollywood mid-day of previews

Ontario not F&F or Rock fans, eh?

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Ontario not F&F or Rock fans, eh?

 

 

Guess not tonight

[Old Spice]

Hobbs and Shaw preview night report for Salt Lake City, 3:40 local time. Sugarhouse Luxury theater, 8 showtimes, all 2D.

 

7:00 PM 39/104

7:35 PM 3/48

8:00 PM 6/47

8:30 PM 6/62

9:40 PM 6/46

10:10 PM 14/104

10:40 0/48

11:10 0/47

Total 74/506 = 14.6%

 

92.5 % of Dark Phoenix = $30.3 OW 😲 

66.6% of John Wick = $37.9

137% of Rocketman = $35.2

73.2% of KOTM= $35.02

 

F & F is more like The Slow and Somewhat Irritable in SLC. The comps on the face of it look absurd compared to what was expected, but it is what it is. Solid reviews should help motivate people on the fence, but man... not looking good right now. 

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

T-1 and still the situation is dire for 10 2d shows. Just sold 62 tickets in since the last update. Needs dramatic spike in the last minute. Sadly wont be able to track all the shows till show time as I will be traveling.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Hobbs and Shaw previews
AMC Empire 25
Imax - 258(251)/303 (8PM), 42(32)/303 (1115PM) Total: 300(283)/606 +17

Dolby -216(213)/225 (7PM),127(117)/225 (1015PM) Total: 343(330)/450 +13

2D -55(48)/377(A13 7PM), 28(12)/309(A9 730PM), 13(12)/309(A14 830PM), 7(5)/158(A6 9PM), 12(8/)144(A20 930PM), 9/262(A17 10PM), 4/377 (A13 1030PM),3/309 (A9 1045PM), 7/99(A22 11PM), 6(4)/146(A7 1130PM) Total: 144(112)/2490(1681)  +32

 

Overall -787(725)/3546 (22.2%) +62

 

 

Update as we have just over a hour to go for 1st show to start. the 1st 2d show has shown significant spike and I expect it to sell lots more with walk ins. Its definitely looking up. I am thinking half the preview tickets should be sold with premium shows almost selling out.

 

Spoiler

Hobbs and Shaw previews
AMC Empire 25

Imax -268(258)/303 (8PM),64(42)/303 (1115PM) Total: 332(300)/606 +32

Dolby -218(216)/225 (7PM),156(127)/225 (1015PM) Total:374(343)/450 +31

2D -127(55)/377(A13 7PM), 46(28)/309(A9 730PM), 37(13)/309(A14 830PM), 13(7)/158(A6 9PM), 15(12/)144(A20 930PM), 10(9)/262(A17 10PM), 6(4)/377 (A13 1030PM),3/309 (A9 1045PM), 7/99(A22 11PM), 8(6)/146(A7 1130PM) Total: 272(144)/2490(1681)  +128

 

Overall - 978(787)/3546 (27.6%) +191