The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

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Edited June 15, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok found some time to do a more detailed look at things:

 

BOP's preview pace is similar to 1917 at MTC1. That one added ~28k until final and finished at 51k at MTC1. If BOP does the same it will finish at 70k and that will be 4.5ish million in previews just from a crude ratio against 1917. On the other hand, it's underperforming big time at MTC2 which may affect things. In the worst case, it would finish at 1.1 million gross in MTC1 and 400k gross in MTC2 which would be about 3.5 million previews. In a slightly better case, if its final day bump is closer to Bad Boys than 1917, it would be 1.3 million MTC1 and 500k MTC2 which would be 4.1 million previews with the usual ratios. So I guess 3.5-4.5 would be the range for now (hoping for the latter).  Let's see what Keyser posts and hopefully it runs better than I expect.

 

On to Friday. Going with the usual pace movement on T-1, BOP would have a combined gross of 1.1 million at the 2 MTC for Friday PS (the MTC1 ratio with 1917 gives 11.9ish million true Friday, although Keyser's last update for that was the night before so that might inflate the comp). However, again the super low MTC2 numbers affect things. Bad Boys had 1.73 million in combined PS across both MTC. So even if Birds of Prey had walkups at that level it would still only get to 11 million true Friday. I'd guess it goes below that. Perhaps 9-10 for True Friday. Caveat here is that Friday walkups are a lot harder to predict than Thursday.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Menor

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:30pm)	166/1844	(5pm)		6:00 PM

 

 

COMPS (5PM - Count time)

4PM Start
Shazam!:(3:30pm): $5.237m
Godz 2: (3:30pm): $5.12m 
Joker: (3:45) $2.9m  
OUATIH: (4:20pm) $2.874m 
Jumanji (4pm): $4.40m

7PM Start
Gemini Man (6:30pm): $3.29m
Mal 2 (6pm): $3.977m
Term: DF (4pm) $3.452m

My guess off these numbers  $4-4.5m previews

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TalismanRing

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

My guess off these numbers  $4-4.5m previews

 

Sub $40m confirmed then. Not good. 

[XXR & Friends]

Birds of Prey -- AMC Willlowbrook 24 -- Day of Previews -- 4:30pm CST

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 shows, 213 seats sold out of 712 available (29.92%)

Digital: 4 shows, 85 seats sold out of 588 available (14.46%)

 

TOTAL: 8 shows, 298 seats sold out of 1300 available (22.92%)

 

Previews Prediction: $4.8 million

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by VenomXXR

[efialtes76]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Sub $40m confirmed then. Not good. 

Confirmed?

Shows hasn't started!

 

 

 

 

[Firepower]

If it's front-loaded, it could go below 40 mln...

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, moms 4 opiuM 4 college said:

total?

so Joker was looking at 155+ OS and made 700 and a 90+ OW, no action, and supreme legs?

 

it shouldn't be too hard to get BoP >500 WW, starting with half of Joker OS

No 155+ WW OW.  worst case was 500ish ww

[cdsacken]

33 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Sub $40m confirmed then. Not good. 

Always possible walkups go insane. Competition is light right? 

[ZackM]

20 hours ago, ZackM said:

Birds of Prey - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	54	890	7	7	0
Seats Added	10,198	187,024	694	-311	2,313
Seats Sold	2,722	1,989	1,171	1,017	616
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	452	99,538	103,120	-	3,582	3,582	3.47%
D-1	937	215,158	219,313	305	3,850	4,155	1.89%
D-2	1,140	259,536	262,544	815	2,193	3,008	1.15%
D-3	1,078	251,347	252,611	502	762	1,264	0.50%

D-0 sold tickets are up to 6,862 as of 6PM.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

D-0 sold tickets are up to 6,862 as of 6PM.

Now that is a good sign. Hopefully the other chains replicate that.

[DAJK]

@Kenny you gotta stop going through the tracking thread with wtf reactions  

 

The posts made in this thread are based on available evidence (that, might I add, has been pretty accurate lately), not with some anti-DC agenda. 

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

@Kenny you gotta stop going through the tracking thread with wtf reactions  

 

The posts made in this thread are based on available evidence (that, might I add, has been pretty accurate lately), not with some anti-DC agenda. 

Shush now, how am I supposed to know that I’m saying something reasonable without the patented Kenny stamp of approval?

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Shush now, how am I supposed to know that I’m saying something reasonable without the patented Kenny stamp of approval?

Out of reactions but 

[Eric is Quiet]

Birds of Prey Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1,320	16,591	7.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 557

 

Comp

0.381x of It: Chapter Two (4M)

0.269x of Joker (3.57M)

1.515x of Terminator (3.56M)

4.536x of Charlie’s Angels (4.08M)

1.456x of Jumanji (6.88M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.603x of Hobbs & Shaw (3.49M)

 

There was...a bump, but not enough to sway the needle. Something in the 4M range still sounds about right.

[cax16]

 

What does this even mean? Is that just buzz for the weekend or what those movies peaked at? Seems like a strange chart cause of course BOP would be highest this weekend lol. 

 

He also said fandango said BOP outsold Shazam in presales. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by cax16

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

What does this even mean? Is that just buzz for the weekend or what those movies peaked at? Seems like a strange chart cause of course BOP would be highest this weekend lol. 

 

He also said fandango said BOP outsold Shazam in presales. 

Yeah... that chart isn't saying what he thinks it's saying.  BBFL is looking at around 11-12m this w/e and BOPs buzz is so far just 33% higher and not even double Jumanji?

[cax16]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Yeah... that chart isn't saying what he thinks it's saying.  BBFL is looking at around 11-12m this w/e and BOPs buzz is so far just 33% higher and not even double Jumanji?

That’s what I thought it meant. 

[MrGlass2]

It's just some Fandango thing and doesn't say much one way or another, a quick search:

Quote

About Fanticipation
Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango’s movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango’s advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment.

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/5/2020 at 2:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

238

1884

12.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

113

1506

7.50%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
728	172	10682	6.82%	9	58

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 548

 

Terminator comp: 5.15M

Joker comp: 5.27M

Adjusted Joker comp: 4.89M

Hobbs comp: 4.69M

 

Sub 5M is looking more and more likely.

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

374

1884

19.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

216

1506

14.34%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1515	787	10682	14.18%	9	58

 

Terminator comp: 3.81M

Gemini Man comp: 4.51M

Joker comp: 6.49M

Adjusted Joker comp: 5.63M

Hustlers comp: 4.48M

Hobbs comp: 4.28M

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 4.39M

 

The underperformance of Joker here is definitely showing now. Terminator had pretty bad walkups, and I'd be surprised if BoP replicated that. I think it's safe to say that this will land in the 4M range. I'm thinking around 4.4M.