The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-105 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14796	15086	290	1.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mon Night

51

 

===

 

I know I said I was going to wait a week (or two!) for my next report.  But I also didn't expect FF9 to average 17 tickets sold a day.  Frankly, I was expecting 10 to 15 total from Tue to Sun.  But I'm seeing the exact same thing @Eric Sionis is:  Consistent small chugging along.  

 

Tue: 12 tickets sold

Wed: 19 tickets sold

Thr: 20 tickets sold

 

Frankly, I'm impressed it's sold that many per day even with the Super Bowl in the recent rear view mirror.  

 

Gonna make my next update on Sun night.  Depending on how many tickets are sold I'll either stick with a twice a week update schedule or go ahead with the planned once a week update.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Porthos

[kitik]

3 hours ago, Eric Sionis said:

F9
Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

56 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I know I said I was going to wait a week (or two!) for my next report.  But I also didn't expect FF9 to average 17 tickets sold a day.  Frankly, I was expecting 10 to 15 total from Tue to Sun.  But I'm seeing the exact same thing @Eric Sionis is:  Consistent small chugging along.  

 

At some point the presales have to dry up, right? Like it'll sell 5 tickets for the entire month of March or something. It can't sell tickets for 110 days straight.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

At some point the presales have to dry up, right? Like it'll sell 5 tickets for the entire month of March or something. It can't sell tickets for 110 days straight.

Even Captain Marvel dried up for a spell, and that was "only" out for 59 days.  This has 50 more than that.

 

This was the "low" point for CM locally:

T-40	19
T-39	17
T-38	9
T-37	22
T-36	21
T-35	40
T-34	18

Barring that spike at T-35, that's as dry as it got.  FF9 meanwhile has a month and a half more.  It's gonna dry up at some point.  I just don't know when and how "dry" it'll get.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

At some point the presales have to dry up, right? Like it'll sell 5 tickets for the entire month of March or something. It can't sell tickets for 110 days straight.

It will keep trending upward from here until the domestic presales exceed TFA’s total gross. The rebirth of Han shall finally defeat the death of Han, as foretold in prophecy.

[MCKillswitch123]

I gotta say I love how this @Kenny dude is just WTFing every post that hints at a not great performance for BOP. Guess it's our wishful thinking that matters the most, not the reliable data from this thread.

 

And to @ChipMunky, there are some overdramatic people in this forum, sure, but this thread is the most reliable tracking source maybe out there at all. It's natural that people like to react to the numbers in however way they feel like.

Edited February 7, 2020 by MCKillswitch123

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Birds of Prey Previews Final

MTC1  - overall 1796 shows 77886/352462 1217652.40
MTC2  - overall 1940 shows 49496/305116 611317.96

I think this suggest 4.8-5.8 i.e. 5.4.

 

I haven't checked chain wise data for films like this, so I guess ratio of MTC 1 may be higher than usual? So I won't really pin on my numbers.

Edited February 7, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think this suggest 4.8-5.8 i.e. 5.4.

 

I haven't checked chain wise data for films like this, so I guess ratio of MTC 1 may be higher than usual? So I won't really pin on my numbers.

Sorry Charlie but the tracking thread wins here. Kinda came in on the very low end too.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Sorry Charlie but the tracking thread wins here. Kinda came in on the very low end too.

 

 

Yeah, MTC 1 did overperformed. In fact MTC 4 was suggesting $2.5-3mn last night update. Should have kept that in mind.

[MrPink]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-105 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14796	15086	290	1.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mon Night

51

 

===

 

I know I said I was going to wait a week (or two!) for my next report.  But I also didn't expect FF9 to average 17 tickets sold a day.  Frankly, I was expecting 10 to 15 total from Tue to Sun.  But I'm seeing the exact same thing @Eric Sionis is:  Consistent small chugging along.  

 

Tue: 12 tickets sold

Wed: 19 tickets sold

Thr: 20 tickets sold

 

Frankly, I'm impressed it's sold that many per day even with the Super Bowl in the recent rear view mirror.  

 

Gonna make my next update on Sun night.  Depending on how many tickets are sold I'll either stick with a twice a week update schedule or go ahead with the planned once a week update.

 

The Family is all in on Han. Justice is coming.

[keysersoze123]

On 2/2/2020 at 2:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic the Hedgedog(T-11)

Sonic MTC1 Prev - overall 799 shows 5501/135581 86472.71 70316.30
Sonic MTC2 Prev - overall 1024 shows 3829/161668 47663.50 33845.37 

 

Numbers are good considering we have over 11 days of PS left. 
 

Sonic the hedgedog(T-6)

MTC1  - overall 879 shows 9788/146750 151718.61 122952.67
MTC2  - overall 1030 shows 6327/162641 78505.58 55860.29   

 

I think the numbers are very good considering the genre. I am feeling this is gonna break out like 4 day around 50m. 

[kitik]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-tracking-the-lovebirds-the-new-mutants-peter-rabbit-2-the-runaway/

 

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/14/2020	Downhill		n/a	NEW		n/a	NEW	Searchlight Pictures
2/14/2020	Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$14,000,000	-10%	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$31,000,000	-23%	Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020	The Photograph	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000		$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$24,000,000	-20%	Universal
2/14/2020	Sonic the Hedgehog	$33,000,000 – $38,000,000	$36,000,000	6%	$110,000,000 – $140,000,000	$125,000,000	6%	Paramount
2/21/2020	Brahms: The Boy 2	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000		$15,000,000 – $28,000,000	$17,800,000		STX
2/21/2020	Call of the Wild	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$13,000,000	-13%	$50,000,000 – $65,000,000	$44,000,000	-12%	20th Century
2/28/2020	The Invisible Man	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	$30,000,000		$60,000,000 – $105,000,000	$80,000,000		Universal
3/6/2020	Onward	$50,000,000 – $70,000,000	$60,000,000		$175,000,000 – $250,000,000	$227,000,000		Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020	The Way Back	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$13,000,000		$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$43,500,000		Warner Bros.
3/13/2020	Bloodshot	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$14,000,000		$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$36,000,000		Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020	I Still Believe	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	$14,500,000		$44,000,000 – $59,000,000	$49,000,000		Lionsgate
3/13/2020	My Spy	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$10,000,000		$25,000,000 – $45,000,000	$36,000,000		STX
3/13/2020	Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project		n/a			n/a		Universal
3/20/2020	A Quiet Place Part II	$60,000,000 – $80,000,000	$72,000,000		$140,000,000 – $190,000,000	$168,000,000		Paramount
3/27/2020	Mulan	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$46,000,000		$115,000,000 – $170,000,000	$132,000,000		Disney
4/3/2020	The Lovebirds	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW	$35,000,000 – $50,000,000	$42,000,000	NEW	Paramount
4/3/2020	The New Mutants	$15,000,000 – $25,000,000	$17,000,000	NEW	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	$37,000,000	NEW	20th Century
4/3/2020	Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000	$18,500,000	NEW	$65,000,000 – $85,000,000	$71,000,000	NEW	Sony / Columbia

 

 

[Tinalera]

Seeing this slow trend of sales for films 2 3 or months out its almost turning into live theatre, complete with the assigned seating. Is this in part our social med

Media spoiler culture having this effect? Or a way for studios to anticipate or predict a trend for a movie?

The fact people are buying them weeks or months away is really intriguing. It really helps studios promote the "event" type of idea

Edited February 7, 2020 by Tinalera

[AJG]

Just now, Tinalera said:

Seeing this slow trend of sales for films 2 3 or months out its almost turning into live theatre, complete with the assigned seating. Is this in part our social med

assigned seating is a godsend. We’ve had in the U.K. for a couple of years now. 
 

No more turning up to the cinema and being stuck in the first 3 rows.

[dudalb]

16 minutes ago, AJG said:

assigned seating is a godsend. We’ve had in the U.K. for a couple of years now. 
 

No more turning up to the cinema and being stuck in the first 3 rows.

It's not universal in the US, but some of the major chains do it.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

282

18.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

37

318

11.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
164	6	3662	4.48%	9	25

 

Seats sold removed: 9

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.06M

 

Unfortunately it looks like some of those sales at Highlands Ranch yesterday didn't actually happen, or some people already got a refund for it. More likely the former. Nothing to worry about though.

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

64

282

22.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

37

318

11.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
207	43	3662	5.65%	9	25

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.72M

Jumanji comp: 4.29M

 

This is really good. Especially being 6 days out. Hopefully glitched sold seats aren't bamboozling me again.

[Boxofficerules]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

64

282

22.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

37

318

11.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
207	43	3662	5.65%	9	25

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.72M

Jumanji comp: 4.29M

 

This is really good. Especially being 6 days out. Hopefully glitched sold seats aren't bamboozling me again.

What about the other new releases next week?

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What about the other new releases next week?

Fantasy Island doesn’t have Thursday previews(and isn’t worth tracking anyways). And The Photograph isn’t worth tracking to me

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think this suggest 4.8-5.8 i.e. 5.4.

 

I haven't checked chain wise data for films like this, so I guess ratio of MTC 1 may be higher than usual? So I won't really pin on my numbers.

For this level of opener, the MTC1+2 gross (from Keyser data) is about 40-43% of the previews. Bad Boys and Jumanji were both around that range at least.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Menor

[ZackM]

20 hours ago, ZackM said:

Birds of Prey - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-0 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	21	54	890	7	7
Seats Added	8,790	10,198	187,024	694	-311
Seats Sold	10,722	2,722	1,989	1,171	1,017
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	452	95,737	106,197	-	10,460	10,460	9.85%
D-1	942	214,360	220,453	515	5,578	6,093	2.76%
D-2	1,144	260,607	265,019	1,280	3,132	4,412	1.66%
D-3	1,090	252,943	254,709	732	1,034	1,766	0.69%

 

I'll have a final count for D-0 in the morning.

Final D-0 number was 11,939.

[MCKillswitch123]

IT'S SAHNIC TIME

 

Seriously, is Sonic OW > BOP OW possible?