The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’ve got 40 as the O/U point until/unless keyser shows up and tells me same day preview sales are going well.

Ugh...my heart is telling me that's impossible, with me thinking on 1st trailer that this was a shoo-in between Shazam and Joker's OW, with Shazam as the floor. 

 

Now, the numbers are telling me that under Shazam is likely...but I don't wanna think further than that b/c it will get too depressing...

Edited February 6, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[YSLDC]

Wouldn't be surprised if this does sub $40M

[AdrianL]

Sub-40 would be bad.

 

From what I remember Shazam was looking to not go as high for $5.9m in previews initially, hopefully the reviews get major walk-ins.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

From what I remember Shazam was looking to not go as high for $5.9m in previews initially, hopefully the reviews get major walk-ins.

Shazam's presales was affected by Endgame's presales starting that week though though. I guess superbowl might have had some effect on BoP but its had time to have good increases in presales which it hasn't had.

[ThanosTheHedgehog]

21 minutes ago, Burgess said:

 

It’s interesting because, anecdotally, NTTD seemed to have a bigger reception (through upvotes and comments) on Reddit’s r/movies than any other Super Bowl spot.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I mean Reddit does skew American, where those movies don’t make much( relatively),also tons of users on reddit hate these  movies . 

[narniadis]

I am with @TwoMisfits here this is remining me of Jumanji's weak ass sales but without the family element to offset *sigh* 

 

I am refusing to consider under 45m but thats still down from the 50m I had assumed would be a minimum before Christmas. 

[AdrianL]

Hm so that 5 for $35 deal on Atom is gone on the app, wonder if it that did well 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Hm so that 5 for $35 deal on Atom is gone on the app, wonder if it that did well 

If it did that well and the presales are still bad...

[DAJK]

I'm gonna say 37-41 until I start seeing numbers tonight. Hopefully this breaks out, but I wouldn't put money on it. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 1/16/2020 at 11:35 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 1544 shows 50321/303549 748975.27 
MTC2 prev - overall 1634 shows 31349/251933 377660.00 

 

MTC1 is showing great growth. I am thinking it can hit 90K before end of the day and that would be 6m previews !!! As @Menor said it can hit 50m by end of sunday. 

 

 

So BOP was well below this (even accounting for the fact that this was morning), and no way its getting walkups like Bad Boys did. I don't think 6 million is possible at this point.

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

If it did that well and the presales are still bad...

It probably sold out Fri/Sat night big city PLFs...so that's gonna be in the presale total, but not Thursday's...

 

[ChipDerby]

This site is THE most dramatic site I've ever been to. My god people, get a hold of yourselves.

[efialtes76]

7 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

This site is THE most dramatic site I've ever been to. My god people, get a hold of yourselves.

Drama Queens.

[el sid]

No numbers yesterday because of a birthday invitation .

Birds of Prey, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 351 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 394 (total tickets sold for Friday, 13 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 221 / 250 (16 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 257 / 268 (14 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 313 / 217 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 87 / 38 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): 29 / 27 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 119 / 62 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 594 / 499 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 249 / 202 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 592 / 427 (18 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till today for Thursday: 2.812 and for Friday: 2.384.

Looks a bit frontloaded.
Comps: Bad Boys for Life had on Thursday 2.502/2.460 sold tickets, Ford v Ferrari 1.116/1.516, OUATIH 3.644/2.765 and Hobbs & Shaw 2.902/3.407.
Bad Boys 3 must have had great walk ups so to be on the safe side I don't compare the Friday presales in this case. But if I compare the Friday number of BoP above (2.384 tickets) with those of the other mentioned films, BoP would still achieve an OW of ca. 37M-49M, not bad. As you can see, the Thursday comparisons are even more favorable.
The only thing that worries me is the possible frontloadedness.

Edited February 6, 2020 by el sid

[MrGlass2]

36 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

This site is THE most dramatic site I've ever been to. My god people, get a hold of yourselves.

Maybe some people, but this thread in general has been getting better and better at predicting OWs thanks to the effort of our tireless trackers. I now trust it more than the weekend previews in trades.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

This site is THE most dramatic site I've ever been to. My god people, get a hold of yourselves.

Yeah , a lot of bipolar ( or manic depressive to use the older term) behavior here. 

Either on top of the world or totally depressed.

I think BOP will do Shazam numbers....which is what I always suspected. Thouh it looked great to me, I always thought it might be just a little offbeat to be  massive hit. (For all of Harley;s popularity, she is not anywhere near the draw "Mr. J" is.)

But with it's modest budget that will be a fine result for DC.

I think people were really overestimating the movie. But then there is a lot of around here.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

50

282

17.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

318

14.47%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
167	31	3662	4.56%	9	25

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.09M

 

Quite the anomaly at Highlands Ranch. It sold more in the past day than Birds of Prey.

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

282

18.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

37

318

11.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
164	6	3662	4.48%	9	25

 

Seats sold removed: 9

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.06M

 

Unfortunately it looks like some of those sales at Highlands Ranch yesterday didn't actually happen, or some people already got a refund for it. More likely the former. Nothing to worry about though.

[cdsacken]

59 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Yeah , a lot of bipolar ( or manic depressive to use the older term) behavior here. 

Either on top of the world or totally depressed.

I think BOP will do Shazam numbers....which is what I always suspected. Thouh it looked great to me, I always thought it might be just a little offbeat to be  massive hit. (For all of Harley;s popularity, she is not anywhere near the draw "Mr. J" is.)

But with it's modest budget that will be a fine result for DC.

I think people were really overestimating the movie. But then there is a lot of around here.

Overseas is looking horrendous thus far. Domestic I am strongly holding out hope for a delusional now expectation of 55+ OW. Overseas I've basically given up.

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 15, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, moms 4 opiuM 4 college said:

what were the lowest figures OS Joker was initially looking at?

155+. Long term tracking for months was 80 million domestic OW.

 

Sub 550ww would have been disappointing. I was expecting 250/600 prior to Midnight's. After the actuals sky rocketed I thought 750 and was way off. Praying same happens here but France and South Korea are bombs.

Edited February 6, 2020 by cdsacken