The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MCKillswitch123]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't put stock in social media numbers when predicting, but I know others do.

Suuuuuure, Mr. Trailer Views (predominantly on YouTube which TOTALLY isn't social media) 

Edited August 30, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Twitter has never been a reliable source for box office tracking.

Bit curious when you say that, have you found a study or did some study over a large numbers of the last year's release ?

 

All study I have read did show twitter volume has being one of the better source for box office.

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.5699.pdf

 

Our initial analysis of the correlation of the average tweetrate with the box-office gross for the 24 movies considered showed a strong positive correlation, with a correlation coeffi- cient value of 0.90. This suggests a strong linear relationship among the variables considered

 

From the results in Table 4, it can be seen that our regression model built from social media provides an accurate prediction of movie performances at the box office. Furthermore, the model built using the tweet rate timeseries outperforms the HSX-based model

 

Study has shown that you can beet the hollywood stake exchange by stupidly using tweet traffic about a movie in the past... Now that people are able to score sentiment of the tweet (positive / neutral / negative) I would imagine that it is even better that in the past.

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06134.pdf

Previous research linking SM to movie sales has demonstrated somewhat less predictive power than might have been anticipated. When [136] correlated box office sales for particular movies with SM information they found only moderate correlations (r 2 = 0.29) when using positive sentiment on blogs along with volume of blog posts. This represents a 12% increase over using the volume of blog posts, but still is far from impressive. Better results are reported for a volume-based analyses by [3]. They predict daily box office revenue for movies as well as sales rank for music albums achieving r 2 = 0.74 and 0.92, respectively. Baseline features such as movie budget, genre, or number of theaters, which may hold greater predictive value, were not provided by [136]. Further work on movie sales was done by [186] who monitored official Facebook fan pages for 50 different movies. They achieve an r 2 of 0.88 in forecasting total box office revenue when incorporating social network features, essentially modeling the influence of each movie’s fan page, a significant improvement over using just the number of theaters showing each film (r 2 = 0.68). Much more positive results are reported by [9] who correlate Twitter volume with opening weekend box office sales achieving r 2 = 0.93 with SM data alone and r 2 = 0.97 when incorporating SM with the number of theaters showing a film. 

 

 

Edited August 30, 2017 by Barnack

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

That's not my point. Downsizing has much more than 14 tweets, yet the tracking doesn't reflect that. 

Link (cannot find it) ? Maybe they give some explanation, like not real time or a number that is a metric score about the volume but not the actual number of tweet or something ?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Link (cannot find it) ? Maybe they give some explanation, like not real time or a number that is a metric score about the volume but not the actual number of tweet or something ?

http://pro.boxoffice.com/movie/31238/downsizing

 

It's up to 66 tweets now

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

http://pro.boxoffice.com/movie/31238/downsizing

 

It's up to 66 tweets now

Maybe better to wait tomorrow to look at today tweets, must be an heavy process (that they probably do not fully pay at least no need to be near real time efficient) for generic words movie like Downsizing, you need to look the tweet context if they are talking about a company downsizing or the movie.

[Mojoguy]

My local theater is keeping Wonder Woman's expansion for another weekend, and Cars 3 is now back.

[Rumpot]

Fandango box office meter with 81 sales of IT in the last 5 minutes or about ~16/minute.  I saw Mother! have 2 sales during the same period and Tulip Fever with 1.  

[grim22]

Deep Wang Updates:

 

- IT is huge. Higher than Dunkirk, Apes, Mummy and Transformers were on the week of release, more than double Dark Tower's final number. Only CBMs. Star Wars and Fantastic Beasts have a higher presale number among comps provided to date

- Inhumans is very meh, Close Encounters is about 75% of Inhumans

- American Assassin has sold 70 tickets, Mother has sold 30

[Alli]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Updates:

 

 

- American Assassin has sold 70 tickets, Mother has sold 30

interesting....

[WrathOfHan]

33 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Updates:

 

- IT is huge. Higher than Dunkirk, Apes, Mummy and Transformers were on the week of release, more than double Dark Tower's final number. Only CBMs. Star Wars and Fantastic Beasts have a higher presale number among comps provided to date

- Inhumans is very meh, Close Encounters is about 75% of Inhumans

- American Assassin has sold 70 tickets, Mother has sold 30

The FB comparison is one I was thinking about in terms of presale-heaviness. It was outselling Doctor Strange the week of release and ended up coming in about 11M below IIRC. I'm predicting 75M right now, so if presales ever become on par with FB, that would help my prediction

O/U 400k for those two?  

Not gonna judge the 15th releases yet because they just went on sale and they aren't exactly presale-based films.

Edited August 30, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[FantasticBeasts]

Wow this is extremely impressive for IT undeniably. 70m is a given. Not even worth doubting at this point.

[Rumpot]

39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The FB comparison is one I was thinking about in terms of presale-heaviness. It was outselling Doctor Strange the week of release and ended up coming in about 11M below IIRC. I'm predicting 75M right now, so if presales ever become on par with FB, that would help my prediction

O/U 400k for those two?  

Not gonna judge the 15th releases yet because they just went on sale and they aren't exactly presale-based films.

I'd expect FB to be much more presales heavy than IT though. If their presales lined up I imagine IT would have a better weekend.  I think the same can be extended to CBMs too.  I'm very aware of the box office buzz for this movie, but none of my fellow 30+s who have nostalgia for the movie and/or book knew this was going to be this big and was worth consideration of buying ahead of time.  The younger fans of stranger things that are excited, sure.  But I think sales from another big.demographic for this movie largely won't buy tickets til next week

[FantasticBeasts]

3 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I'd expect FB to be much more presales heavy than IT though. If their presales lined up I imagine IT would have a better weekend.  I think the same can be extended to CBMs too.  I'm very aware of the box office buzz for this movie, but none of my fellow 30+s who have nostalgia for the movie and/or book knew this was going to be this big and was worth consideration of buying ahead of time.  The younger fans of stranger things that are excited, sure.  But I think sales from another big.demographic for this movie largely won't buy tickets til next week

It goes without saying. IT will be far less pre sales driven. You cannot compare the Potter fan base to IT's.

[grim22]

Official Twitter roundup of movies with the most social conversation on Twitter

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, grim22 said:

Official Twitter roundup of movies with the most social conversation on Twitter

 

 

Funny seeing All Eyez on Me in there when it pretty much flopped. Just goes to show how much potential a good Tupac biopic had that was wasted away.

[That One Girl]

Foreign summer blockbuster Justice League.

[KeepItU25071906]

IT is on MT again:

 

1.Hitman -10.5%

2.Annabelle - 10.2%

3. Arjun Reddy - 7.5%

4. Leap! - 7.3%

5. IT - 6.1%

 

Think, it's here till Friday. Or may be not).

[Rumpot]

9 hours ago, Rumpot said:

Fandango box office meter with 81 sales of IT in the last 5 minutes or about ~16/minute.  I saw Mother! have 2 sales during the same period and Tulip Fever with 1.  

Wow. 120 ticket sales on IT in 5 minutes on Fandango.  Can't believe it's only August 30th

[POTUS 2020]

Oh my

 

Title	Your Prediction	Prediction Average

Wind River	$0.00M	$4.25M
The Hitman's Bodyguard	$0.00M	$6.37M
Annabelle 2	$0.00M	$4.31M
Leap!	$0.00M	$3.21M
Logan Lucky	$0.00M	$2.91M
Dunkirk	$0.00M	$2.96M
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$0.00M	$2.15M
Birth of the Dragon	$0.00M	$1.51M
The Emoji Movie	$0.00M	$1.74M
Girls Trip	$0.00M	$1.74M

Top ten to barely clear 30m. Is this going to be the worst weekend since the early 90s, late 80s? 

[dxmatrixdt]

holy shit, Jeepers Creepers 3 is popping up on PULSE!!!!  WTF!!!!!