The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi Previews (T-7)

MTC1  - 53740/390845 902746.82 2082 shows

MTC2(DBOX Adjusted) - 26500/329881 406902.66 2135 shows

 

As I posted yesterday pace of MTC1 ~ 2x MTC2 at this point. 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

About 35 people at my 7pm XD of Candyman. 

 

It's going to have a horrendous Cinemascore and 2nd weekend drop. 

[AJG]

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

About 35 people at my 7pm XD of Candyman. 

 

It's going to have a horrendous Cinemascore and 2nd weekend drop. 

DoubleToasted critics compared it to The Neon Demon and Velvet Buzzsaw. I believe you.

Edited August 27, 2021 by AJG

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

DoubleToasted critics compared it to The Neon Demon and Velvet Buzzsaw. I believe you.

Velvet Buzzsaw is a perfect comp lol. It's a very anemic film imo. Lots of commentary on cultural appropriation and the exploitation and profiting of Black trauma in art--absolutely no scares to satisfy average moviegoer. Some creepy imagery and occasionally gory kill but my theater did not react whatsoever. It's not even a satire, completely humorless too. 

[DAJK]

Numbers here look roughly on par with Old. It didn’t open at my specific location so I don’t have detailed data, but the other theaters I’m tracking in Canada it looks to play slightly similar or just under Old.

 

That being said, I always expected that this wouldn’t be as strong in Canada as the US so there’s that.

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I don't want to speak out of pocket here but isn't Denver like just a step above Portland/Salt Lake City levels of white? It's very Latino but it's not very black compared to most major metro areas.

Nah it’s not out of pocket. Definitely a reason why, Denver is like 10% black. Aurora is 16.5% black and the Cinemark there overindexed compared to other theaters. Also the usual best performing theaters, the two that I put in the post, are in the subarbs where it’s like low single digit black.

Edited August 27, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1409	11464	12.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

1.406x of F9 T-8 (9.98M)

0.561x of Black Widow T-8 (7.41M)

3.669x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (15.04M)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1540	11464	13.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 131

 

Comp

1.460x of F9 T-7 (10.36M)

0.582x of Black Widow T-7 (7.69M)

3.711x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (15.21M)

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

About 35 people at my 7pm XD of Candyman. 

 

It's going to have a horrendous Cinemascore and 2nd weekend drop. 

I almost commented earlier that you had been very negative and selective about the movie all week......but I'm glad I didn't, because you're totally right lol. Movie is a total mess. Beautifully shot and staged and acted - but the script is a disaster. And to your point, audiences gonna hate it. I thought it was interesting enough but general horror movie audiences will not be as forgiving.

[Nikostar]

After leaving the theater tonight I won’t be surprised if Candyman comes close to 30 million. Great walk ups tonight.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just had a look at Candyman couple of days ago and MTC sales did not look like a breakout. Checked again now and walkups have been quite good. 

 

Candyman Previews

MTC1 - 33106/189409 501403.68 1123 shows

MTC2 - 19450/184829 250782.47 1235 shows

 

Thinking previews will be around 2.2m. Not sure if I can update again but there is enough data to extrapolate at this time. 

It finished at 38612 at MTC1 and 29372 at MTC2. Very strong late run as well. I would say 2.5m previews now. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	15846	17487	1641	9.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

149

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	46.07		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		6.37m
SC (adj)	----		135	1600		0/102	15152/16752	9.55%		----

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: SC (adj) Is the amount of seats sold that does not include a theater which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 330/4674 [7.06% sold] [+44 tickets]

 

===

 

Two theaters were re-integrated into the count at this point in BW's track, but barely moved the needle.  Last one comes in tomorrow.

 

Aside from that, Shang-Chi keeps on keeping on.  Was bigger than yesterday, which is a good sign for it going forward.

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	15837	17611	1774	10.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	124
Total Seats Sold Today	133

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	46.51		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		6.43m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 347/4674 [7.42% sold] [+17 tickets]

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I almost commented earlier that you had been very negative and selective about the movie all week......but I'm glad I didn't, because you're totally right lol. Movie is a total mess. Beautifully shot and staged and acted - but the script is a disaster. And to your point, audiences gonna hate it. I thought it was interesting enough but general horror movie audiences will not be as forgiving.

I truly wasn't attempting to be negative, so I regret if I came off that way. I was interested in the film since last year (the original is fantastic), some of the reviews caught me offguard and sadly the movie confirmed those suspicions. The didacticism just completely renders the film flat. I'm fine with vibing with a film mainstream audiences do not (Old) but I'm with them on this one. There's no sense of pace/character. I love what the movie is about but hate how it's about them. The first act is a sermon and thesis, I was growing restless with them. Beautifully staged as you mentioned but yes, very shallow and doesn't deliver the goods in terms of scares

 

I'm not exaggerating when I say my theater did not react AT ALL. They were completely disengaged. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-8 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	149	39,534	754	1.91%	$8,861	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	892	18.51%	$13,808	$15.48
Cine Capri	4	1,782	81	4.55%	$1,191	$14.70
IMAX	2	890	134	15.06%	$2,010	$15.00
Total	171	47,024	1,861	3.96%	$25,870	$13.90

 

Quite decent day of 167 seats. If I had taken yesterday at normal time, perhaps could have been 180-200 day after a 300-310 day. It shall cross the 2K target I had set for T-7 days. Good pace so far.

Shang Chi Harkins T-7 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	153	40,415	874	2.16%	$10,271	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	948	19.68%	$14,680	$15.49
Cine Capri	4	1,782	85	4.77%	$1,239	$14.58
IMAX	2	890	151	16.97%	$2,265	$15.00
Total	175	47,905	2,058	4.30%	$28,455	$13.83

 

Solid day of 197. There were few, either my mistake or cancellations in some show, otherwise sold seats were over 200. It crossed 2K at T-7, target which I had set for it. Hopefully will cross 3K at T-3 days.

 

Comps

55.05% of Black Widow Gross - $7.7M

49.79% of Black Widow Admits - $7M

 

California Comps

61.82% of Black Widow Gross - $8.65M

407.15% of The Suicide Squad - $16.69M

[Krissykins]

$2m+ for Candyman would be fantastic, as would a $20m+ weekend. 
 

I see Box Office Report have updated their forecast from their original $9-14m opening weekend. Someone else here was predicting $9m too. I guess it started to really build interest again recently for some. 

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

About 35 people at my 7pm XD of Candyman. 

 

It's going to have a horrendous Cinemascore and 2nd weekend drop. 

Are you expecting an Old/ The Night House Cinemascore (C+/C-)?
 

Hopefully the second weekend drop can avoid being “horrendous” with a Labor Day bumper, but there is an MCU film opening. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Are you expecting an Old/ The Night House Cinemascore (C+/C-)?
 

Hopefully the second weekend drop can avoid being “horrendous” with a Labor Day bumper, but there is an MCU film opening. 

It’s basically in the vein of an A24 film and even less crowdpleasing than Us (B). So probably C+
 

It’s just not audience friendly. Not scary. Perhaps 2 jump scares and not many more moments of gore. Lots of dialogue in art galleries. The fact it’ll overperform probably damages the Cinemascore too because those walk ups won’t be satisfied 

Edited August 27, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It’s basically in the vein of an A24 film and even less crowdpleasing than Us (B). So probably C+
 

It’s just not audience friendly. Not scary. Perhaps 2 jump scares and not many more moments of gore. Lots of dialogue in art galleries. The fact it’ll overperform probably damages the Cinemascore too because those walk ups won’t be satisfied 

Ah I absolutely loved Us lol. Can’t wait to see this tonight. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-7	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	360	36	4.99%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	408	27	6.84%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,598	401	19	11.15%
	Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,169	82	6.97%

 

I'd give Shang-Chi a B- for sales yesterday.  Five shows decreased their sales amount and in turn there were fewer new sales than the last two days.  Here are the new sales numbers for the last few days for the comps I'm using:

 

	T-7	T-8	T-9	T-10
Shang-Chi	82	111	117	53
Black Widow	215	166	120	103
F9	65	36	56	63
TSS	54	26	14	8

 

Maybe it's just getting back on track after the reviews bump - just something to follow. 

 

Shang-Chi comps

BW - .4126x (5.446m)

F9 - 1.211x (8.6m)

TSS - 2.95x (12.1m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	409	49	5.67%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	454	46	7.61%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,598	436	35	12.12%
	Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,299	130	7.74%

 

Can't remember the last time I was only tracking one movie; looking at the release calendar I don't see that changing for a while.  There are three wide releases scheduled for 9/10 that I haven't heard of yet, then four the following week same story.  Is Dear Evan Hansen really the next thing worth tracking? 

 

Anyways, back on topic. Nice bounce back for Shang-Chi after a drop in new sales yesterday.  It gained on all three comps a little, but the range is still pretty wide.  Since this is the only thing going, I put together another chart to compare point-in-time for the comps.  Here are the T-6 charts for each of them.

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	64	11,033	974	78	8.83%
	Phoenix	6	52	8,718	818	48	9.38%
	Raleigh	7	47	5,803	1,226	59	21.13%
Black Widow Total		19	163	25,554	3,018	185	11.81%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	38	7,449	283	26	3.80%
	Phoenix	6	46	7,676	349	17	4.55%
	Raleigh	7	28	3,723	410	34	11.01%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		19	112	18,848	1,042	77	5.53%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	142	19	3.23%
	Phoenix	6	24	3,826	137	7	3.58%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	146	3	4.52%
Suicide Squad Total		20	73	11,455	425	29	3.71%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	409	49	5.67%
	Phoenix	6	34	5,968	454	46	7.61%
	Raleigh	7	29	3,598	436	35	12.12%
Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,299	130	7.74%

 

As you can see, Shang-Chi is closest to F9 in number of shows and seating capacity, though being ahead in sales.  It's performing pretty evenly across the three markets, much more similar to TSS than the other two.  

 

Here's a breakdown by format as well for T-6.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 68/236

6:30 IMAX: 29/372

7:00: 31/107

7:30 3D: 0/107

9:30 Dolby: 33/236

Total: 161/1,058

 

Comps:

 

45% of Black Widow the day before (5.9M)

124% of F9 three days out (8.7M)

146% of AQP2 two days out (7M)

282% of The Suicide Squad five days out (11.6M)

 

So far these are encouraging for 8M+ unless it gains little ground over the next few days for the first three comps. I'm not sold on 10M yet; that will depend on walkups and day before sales like Widow.

 

[Krissykins]

 $1.9m for Candyman. 
 

Was expecting 2m+, hmm.