The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Lines up perfectly with that earlier report from Brandon Katz. 👍

I believe these are Universal's read on opening day and weekend after THU. They are doing this since few months, giving a projected FRI and Weekend with THU previews. 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1913030145/?ref_=bo_hm_rd

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

It is projected for a Friday 8.4m on Box Office Mojo already. But nearly 8m not counting the near 2m from thursday would have it near 10m so the weekend will be higher than the projected 19m from earlier?

[Ronin46]

16 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It is projected for a Friday 8.4m on Box Office Mojo already. But nearly 8m not counting the near 2m from thursday would have it near 10m so the weekend will be higher than the projected 19m from earlier?

 

I think it includes the preview number in the total so a 6.5M true Friday. 

[Porthos]

On 8/26/2021 at 10:47 PM, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	15837	17611	1774	10.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	124
Total Seats Sold Today	133

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	46.51		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		6.43m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow has ten more days of pre-sales than Shang-Chi at this point in its track.

 

Regal: 347/4674 [7.42% sold] [+17 tickets]

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	111	15649	17611	1962	11.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

188

 

T-6 Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	48.21		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		6.66m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 387/4674 [8.28% sold] [+40 tickets]

Edited August 29, 2021 by Porthos
Forgot to update the tickets sold for Black Widow

[Madhuvan]

yeah Shang-Chi is looking at 7-8m previews now. No required surge for 9-10m previews so far. These are still great numbers though. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

yeah Shang-Chi is looking at 7-8m previews now. No required surge for 9-10m previews so far. These are still great numbers though. 

[Legion Again]

It’s looking at 9-10ish, keeping pace or slightly exceeding what I wanted to see. Keep in mind the Ontario and atp difference (for applicable trackers, e.g. Porthos already does Ontario so don’t want to double dip).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Shang-Chi first day of presales:

CINEMARK (22)

6pm XD (14), 915 XD (4)

630 3D (2), 945 3D (0)

7pm (2), 1015 (0)

 

AMC (129)

6pm (3), 630 (0), 830 (0)

7pm Dolby (86)

730 3D (0)

8pm IMAX (40)

 

Shang-Chi Today

CINEMARK (44)

6pm XD (16), 915 XD (14)

630 3D (5), 945 3D (0)

7pm (9), 1015 (0)

 

AMC (313)

6pm (11), 630 (3), 830 (3)

7pm Dolby (159)

730 3D (8)

8pm IMAX (129)

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:45 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-7 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	153	40,415	874	2.16%	$10,271	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	948	19.68%	$14,680	$15.49
Cine Capri	4	1,782	85	4.77%	$1,239	$14.58
IMAX	2	890	151	16.97%	$2,265	$15.00
Total	175	47,905	2,058	4.30%	$28,455	$13.83

 

Solid day of 197. There were few, either my mistake or cancellations in some show, otherwise sold seats were over 200. It crossed 2K at T-7, target which I had set for it. Hopefully will cross 3K at T-3 days.

 

Comps

55.05% of Black Widow Gross - $7.7M

49.79% of Black Widow Admits - $7M

 

California Comps

61.82% of Black Widow Gross - $8.65M

407.15% of The Suicide Squad - $16.69M

Shang Chi Harkins T-6 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,017	2.49%	$11,946	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,021	21.19%	$15,804	$15.48
Cine Capri	4	1,782	96	5.39%	$1,398	$14.56
IMAX	2	890	172	19.33%	$2,580	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,306	4.77%	$31,728	$13.76

 

Good uptick today as well at 248. Looking good for that 3K target, though probably 3.1K will be better target. 

 

California Comps 

3.67x The Suicide Squad Gross - $15M

 

The comp will obviously keep decreasing. TSS Final in CA was $23.3K, SC is currently $13.3K, should reach $55K eventually.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	409	49	5.67%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	454	46	7.61%
		Raleigh	7	29	3,598	436	35	12.12%
	Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,299	130	7.74%

 

Can't remember the last time I was only tracking one movie; looking at the release calendar I don't see that changing for a while.  There are three wide releases scheduled for 9/10 that I haven't heard of yet, then four the following week same story.  Is Dear Evan Hansen really the next thing worth tracking? 

 

Anyways, back on topic. Nice bounce back for Shang-Chi after a drop in new sales yesterday.  It gained on all three comps a little, but the range is still pretty wide.  Since this is the only thing going, I put together another chart to compare point-in-time for the comps.  Here are the T-6 charts for each of them.

 

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	64	11,033	974	78	8.83%
	Phoenix	6	52	8,718	818	48	9.38%
	Raleigh	7	47	5,803	1,226	59	21.13%
Black Widow Total		19	163	25,554	3,018	185	11.81%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	38	7,449	283	26	3.80%
	Phoenix	6	46	7,676	349	17	4.55%
	Raleigh	7	28	3,723	410	34	11.01%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		19	112	18,848	1,042	77	5.53%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	142	19	3.23%
	Phoenix	6	24	3,826	137	7	3.58%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	146	3	4.52%
Suicide Squad Total		20	73	11,455	425	29	3.71%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	42	7,214	409	49	5.67%
	Phoenix	6	34	5,968	454	46	7.61%
	Raleigh	7	29	3,598	436	35	12.12%
Shang-Chi Total		19	105	16,780	1,299	130	7.74%

 

As you can see, Shang-Chi is closest to F9 in number of shows and seating capacity, though being ahead in sales.  It's performing pretty evenly across the three markets, much more similar to TSS than the other two.  

 

Here's a breakdown by format as well for T-6.

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-5	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	43	7,251	439	30	6.05%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	507	53	8.50%
		Raleigh	8	31	3,846	493	57	12.82%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	108	17,065	1,439	140	8.43%

 

Another big jump, increasing a couple more percentage points on BW.  I missed commenting on it, but yesterday's total surpassed TSS's preview morning run.

 

Comps

BW - .45x (5.95m)

F9 - 1.26x (8.96m)

TSS - 3.04x (12.47m)

 

T-5 snapshot comparison

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	64	11,033	1,028	54	9.32%
	Phoenix	6	54	8,930	853	35	9.55%
	Raleigh	7	47	5,803	1,312	86	22.61%
Black Widow Total		19	165	25,766	3,193	175	12.39%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	38	7,449	320	37	4.30%
	Phoenix	6	47	7,731	386	37	4.99%
	Raleigh	7	29	3,811	434	24	11.39%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		19	114	18,991	1,140	98	6.00%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	159	17	3.61%
	Phoenix	6	24	3,826	160	23	4.18%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	154	8	4.77%
Suicide Squad Total		20	73	11,455	473	48	4.13%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	43	7,251	439	30	6.05%
	Phoenix	6	34	5,968	507	53	8.50%
	Raleigh	8	31	3,846	493	57	12.82%
Shang-Chi Total		20	108	17,065	1,439	140	8.43%

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s looking at 9-10ish, keeping pace or slightly exceeding what I wanted to see. Keep in mind the Ontario and atp difference (for applicable trackers, e.g. Porthos already does Ontario so don’t want to double dip).

There is a pretty big regional spread but some rough extrapolations I had for MTCs get it to 160k MTC1 and 118k MTC2 which I suppose would be 8.5.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

There is a pretty big regional spread but some rough extrapolations I had for MTCs get it to 160k MTC1 and 118k MTC2 which I suppose would be 8.5.

These two will probably be around $9.5-10M barring big over indexing of two.

[Legion Again]

160/118 looks like 9 to me, hoping more 175/130 I suppose.

[Menor the Destroyer]

TSS with 78/54 was just 4.1 so I think it would be unlikely that 160/118 would get to 9 especially since the ATP will be a bit lower. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Looking at BW
MTC 1 - ~257K with $13.6 ATP
MTC 2 - 206.8K with probably $12.75 ATP
 

I expect ATP for both MTC 1 and 2 to be $1 more. 

MTC1 & 2 were 32.2% and 20.7% of just US. 

For $9.5M, will need US to be around $8.75M and if same ratio of BW remains, $2.8M in MTC 1 ($2.35M in our tracked) & $1.8M in MTC 2 i.e. 161k and 130k respectively.

160k and 118k would probably be $9-9.1M. @Lokis Legion 👍

Edited August 28, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Tinalera]

Shang Chi 

Toronto Ontario

Taken August 28 for Thursday Sept 2nd

 

		Shang Chi
	17	9	26	Vip
	22	8	30
	22	6	28
Yonge Dundas	18	8	26
	21	9	30
	14	12	26
	65	44	109	Imax
	61	59	120
	22	1	23	4dx
	19	2	21
	22	128	150	reg
	20	150	170
Scotia	105	12	117	imax
	104	46	150
	79	113	192	3d
	26	260	286
Varsity	5	7	12	vip
			25	so (estimate total)
	5	11	16
	8	6	14
	81	162	243	reg
	87	142	229
yonge eglinton	86	31	117	3d
	38	152	190
	18	8	26	vip
	26	5	31
	17	6	23
	23	13	36
yorkdale	49	155	204	avx3d
	41	252	293	avx
	92	33	125
	24	302	326
	23	345	368	reg
	11	404	415
eglinton town	86	45	131	imax
	56	134	190
	39	84	123	3ddbox
	11	187	198
	15	226	241	reg
	5	276	281
queensway	29	262	291	avx3d
	18	321	339
	80	67	147	avx
	75	66	141
	31	14	45	vip
	23	14	37
	40	9	49
	42	10	52
	21	21	42
	18	32	50
	35	86	121	reg
	24	131	155
empress walk	79	88	167	imax
	48	176	224
	11	314	325	3d
	74	131	205	reg
	2131		7751

[Tinalera]

as before, total seats sold on left, seats available in middle, total seats sold and available on right. I post the latter just for reference as some like those numbers, mainly due to fact that number available keeps shrinking due to covid distance restrictions. When day comes that full seating is allowed again, I may drop that number, but it seems some people like it for reference.

 

Also a note-yonge town I actually did a dupe last time, the 3dbox numbers were duped so I removed those this time.

 

I have definitively decided to wait until next week to start doing friday numbers, because Cineplex dumps a ton of new theatres in around tues/wed of the week of opening, kind of totally muddying the waters for the counters. (Plus nothing says fun like adding a ton of new seats, screens out of nowhere

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looking at BW
MTC 1 - ~257K with $13.6 ATP
MTC 2 - 206.8K with probably $12.75 ATP
 

I expect ATP for both MTC 1 and 2 to be $1 more. 

MTC1 & 2 were 32.2% and 20.7% of just US. 

For $9.5M, will need US to be around $8.75M and if same ratio of BW remains, $2.8M in MTC 1 ($2.35M in our tracked) & $1.8M in MTC 2 i.e. 161k and 130k respectively.

160k and 118k would probably be $9-9.1M. @Lokis Legion 👍

My final BW number was 247K MTC1 and 189K(DBOX Adjusted) MTC2. I dont see Shangi Chi hitting 9m. Its falling behind the ratio required to hit that number and MCU movies have become insanely front loaded as their fanbase has grown. That is inevitable for any maturing fanbase. I am fairly confident with 7-8m previews. Dont forget you grossly overestimated BW comparing it to Captain Marvel !!!!

[Menor the Destroyer]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

My final BW number was 247K MTC1 and 189K(DBOX Adjusted) MTC2. I dont see Shangi Chi hitting 9m. Its falling behind the ratio required to hit that number and MCU movies have become insanely front loaded as their fanbase has grown. That is inevitable for any maturing fanbase. I am fairly confident with 7-8m previews. Dont forget you grossly overestimated BW comparing it to Captain Marvel !!!!

206.8k MTC2 was the full final number I took Friday morning. I also don't see it going quite as high as 9m but BW is a better comp than Captain Marvel as it is only two months old. 

[Krissykins]

Fellow MCU film Black Widow still has the worst preview to OW multiplier of the year, but Shang Chi will have the benefit of a boosted Sunday and no at-home option. 
 

$8m previews would point to a $60m 3 day.