The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I wonder if it might have done better than it would have in a non Covid world tbh 

 

Personally I think it matters because of the delta variant. At least a 20% hit for most films. Real curious to see how the next spiderman film does. Case counts likely aren't going to be down that much in December with nearly 40% of republicans being antivax. Even saying that makes my brain want to explode.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

We’re not that far from full capacity tbh. I agree with Jat that closures are at a level where they don’t matter much since locations can substitute each other.    

I don’t fully agree that things have been performing at a non covid level (though iirc @ViewerAnon made a pretty similar claim on Twitter a few weeks ago). But it is pretty… interesting, at the very least, how robust the box office has been for the past month. Candyman looking at 25+ probably, quite strong. Free Guy at 28 was quite good, and then at 18.5 was even better. Jungle Cruise at 35M with a same day streaming option that was actively cheaper for families, and then TSS was brutally low but perhaps not really that low considering Birds of Prey at 33M and the even more damaging same day streaming model. 
 

Despite the spiking case numbers we’ve seen movie after movie exceed expectations. 

Smaller movies have been doing well but I think bigger movies would be more affected since they have to reach a broader audience.

[el sid]

Candyman counted today at 11:30am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 124 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 60 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 104 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 217 (5 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 555.

Up 50% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday, always the same 7 theaters): The Forever Purge (1.33M previews/12.6M OW) had 241 sold tickets,
AQP II (4.8M previews starting at 5pm/47.5M OW) had 1.582
and Crawl (1M previews) had 328.
Spiral (? previews/8.8M OW) had in 4 theaters 359 sold tickets (so here vs 458).
 

Candyman counted today at 11:30am EST for Friday, August 27:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 202 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 55 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 24 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 38 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 102 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 233 (10 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 656.
Up ok 47% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday, always the same 7 theaters): Old (16.9M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 500 sold tickets,
The Conjuring 3 (24.1M OW) had 1.435
and Crawl (12.0M OW) had 269 sold tickets.
Spiral (8.8M OW) had in 4 theaters 419 sold tickets (so here vs 575).

I'm not completely happy with this day and the comps are so uneven. Will it really reach 20M+ as the Old and Crawl comps suggest?
But because Candyman again improved measured against Spiral I would say at least 15M+ OW should really happen.

Edited August 26, 2021 by el sid

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

Smaller movies have been doing well but I think bigger movies would be more affected since they have to reach a broader audience.

 

There might be something to this.   I did a test last night after Jat's comment and TSS's preview numbers did track within 97% of a randomly selected John Wick 3* locally, which makes The Suicide Squad the first movie of the pandemic era locally to come anywhere close to my pre-2020 comps for various films. 

* Not that terrible a comp, actually, IMO.  Both were R-rated 7pm start times, no 3D films, with decent PLF penetration.

 

On the other hand, Sacto could have been spooked by the Delta surge (TSS was the first film I tracked to be affected by Delta) so if we were more confident than the rest of the nation in going out in seeing movies earlier in the year, perhaps we're now more normalized to an overall US environment.

 

On the other other hand, as @Lokis Legion legion pointed out, screens finally topped the 5,000 marker.

 

On the other other other hand, 80% ≠ 100%, so even if that survey that @charlie Jatinder citied is true, there are some people who might go and see a movie who aren't.  Might not matter as much on preview night/opening weekend as the pool of interested people will perhaps see good and enticing seats and go ahead and grab them and go see a film on OW rather than wait a week or two.  But I still think it is shrinking the overall pool.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Shang-Chi comes closer to my pre-Delta comps (F9, BW) or if it does come closer to my TSS comp (while noting that it has 3D and TSS didn't) and by extension pre-2020 films.  Still, even if it does do that, all it might say is that Sacramento is once again in line with a now fully returned theater landscape and it's seeing the same percentage of folks staying home as everywhere else. 

[Nikostar]

I am so here for Candyman doing 25+ this weekend.

[SpiderByte]

Sounding like Shang-Chi will do well enough to give the rest of Disney's movies an excuse to lock into their current dates with no premier access

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

252

1752

14.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

218

1396

15.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1119	119	15358	7.29%	15	83

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 830

 

AMCs sold	792
Cinemarks sold	144
Regals sold	145
Harkins sold	38

 

Black Widow comp: 6.75M

Fast 9 comp: 11.71M

Suicide Squad comp: 12.60M

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

277

1752

15.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

231

1396

16.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1206	87	15536	7.76%	15	84

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 178

 

AMCs sold	848
Cinemarks sold	151
Regals sold	161
Harkins sold	46

 

Black Widow comp: 6.75M

Fast 9 comp: 11.96M

Suicide Squad comp: 12.21M

 

FTR, not a typo on the Black Widow comp. Just the same pace for the day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

277

1752

15.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

231

1396

16.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1206	87	15536	7.76%	15	84

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 178

 

AMCs sold	848
Cinemarks sold	151
Regals sold	161
Harkins sold	46

 

Black Widow comp: 6.75M

Fast 9 comp: 11.96M

Suicide Squad comp: 12.21M

 

FTR, not a typo on the Black Widow comp. Just the same pace for the day.

First bad day in a few. Based on some partial MTC data I had taken I expect this will be the case in other regions as well. Hopefully not the start of a trend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Candyman	Jacksonville	6	14	2,566	211	109	8.22%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,274	153	58	4.67%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,865	153	56	8.20%
	Candyman Total		19	49	7,705	517	223	6.71%

 

Awesome day for Candyman - 75% increase in sales.  Not only that, but the sales were pretty well distributed with 37 of the 49 showtimes adding to their totals.  I didn't realize how low expectations were for this (LRF of 9-14 OW as of last week) until after I made my 25m-27m prediction.  Luckily it's kept up the pace and it still looks possible.

 

Candyman comps

Old - 1.576x (2.36m)

FPurge - 2.33x (3.097m)

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Candyman	Jacksonville	6	15	2,647	406	195	15.34%
	Phoenix	6	18	3,274	218	65	6.66%
	Raleigh	7	17	1,865	306	153	16.41%
Candyman Total		19	50	7,786	930	413	11.94%
Old	Jacksonville	5	13	2,752	181	100	6.58%
	Phoenix	7	16	2,031	264	116	13.00%
	Raleigh	8	14	1,300	215	116	16.54%
Old Total		20	43	6,083	660	332	10.85%
The Forever Purge	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	127	67	6.42%
	Phoenix	7	17	1,781	133	49	7.47%
	Raleigh	7	14	1,267	142	64	11.21%
The Forever Purge Total		19	43	5,026	402	180	8.00%

 

Final run for Candyman at T-1 hour.  Raleigh and Jacksonville looking really good with same-day sales.  We'll see if the walk ups follow suit.  I'll go with 2.5m for my official previews guess.

 

Comps

Old - 1.41x (2.11m)

Forever Purge - 2.31x (3.077m)

Escape Room 2 - 2.05x (2.45m)
Night House - 10x (2.6m)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday: 1122(+112)/16910(+166) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 5.53M [2677(+176)]

 

T-9 days Friday: 759(+72)/36065(-96) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 10.12M [1972(+181)]

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday: 1195(+73)/16995(+85) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 5.56M [2839(+162)]

Fast 9 comp: 12.42M

 

T-8 days Friday: 837(+78)/36065 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 9.97M [2209(+237)]

Fast 9 comp: 22.72M

[TalismanRing]

On 8/24/2021 at 8:26 PM, TalismanRing said:

Shang-Chi (Regal Local) (Oddly has not added Vaccine Requirement yet - probably an oversight)

33/1402 (1st day - Midnight)

57/1402  (5:45pm 8/20/21)
78/1402 (4pm 8.22.21)
78/1402 (4pm 8.23.21)
112/1402 (8pm 8.24.21)

 

Candyman (Regal Local) (Vaccine Req)

8/1154 (4pm 8.23.21)

8/1154 (4pm 8.24.21)

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi (-1 week)	78/1402	(4pm)	112/1402	(8pm)						6:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)		7:00 PM

 

 

Shang-Chi
125/1402 (6:45pm 8.26.21)

 

Candyman (Vaccine Req) (7pm)
=59/1154 (6:45pm 8.26.21)

 

CM- I wish I had more recent comps since movies are more walk up based lately

 

Invisible Man:  $1.39m

Turning:  $1.2m

Dr Sleep: $1.67m

Zombieland 2: $1.77m

Don't Breathe 2  - $3.79m previews (though this was counted 75 minutes earlier and films are far more walk up based in general lately in addition to horror being already heavily walk up based)

 

If I add the older 4 I get a $1.5m avg.  If I add that avg to 3.79 and divide by two I get  $2.65m for my projection.    Though if I weight the avg 4-1 its $1.958m.  I'm going to pretend that makes mathematical sense.   

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Eric Duncan]

19 hours ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Candyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	601	6871	8.75%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 65

Total Seats Sold Today: 217

 

Comp

0.772x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-1 (2.88M)

0.227x of Space Jam 2 Fri 1 Day Before Release (2.98M)

 

@Cmasterclay Black-led movies overindex in Philly for obvious reasons, which means it's usually unfair to compare Candyman to other horror titles like Old or something. However, Spiral is actually a decent comp here and things are pointing towards a positive direction amongst other trackers. I still don't want to go 2.9M like this is saying, but 2M previews should be the minumum and 2.5M+ is on the outside looking in IMHO.

 

Either way, the film is looking more and more like a breakout, at least in the COVID perspective

Candyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	1415	6871	20.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 814

 

Comp

0.719x of A Quiet Place Part II (3.45M)

1.099x of Spiral Thu+Fri (4.1M)

1.933x of Forever Purge (2.57M)

2.448x of Escape Room 2 (2.94M)

0.320x of Space Jam 2 Fri (4.19M)

1.657x of Old (2.48M)

1.380x of Don't Breathe 2 (1.33M)

 

I know I said before to focus on Black-led movies, but I did it this time to put into some perspective. The big one being that I see no reason to follow the Spiral and Space Jam comps because 4M+ previews sounds way too optimistic and unrealistic. But looking at just about everything else, it's still a given that 2M previews are the floor and 2.5M+ is more and more likely. Crazy to think over The Suicide Squad's OW could happen, but these are strange times we live in.

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-candyman-is-trending-for-a-late-summer-surprise-likely-to-dethrone-free-guy/

 

Opener Forecast Ranges

Candyman
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 26 million
Domestic Total Range: $40 – $75 million

 

Weekend Forecast

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decrease between 1 and 15 percent from last weekend’s $59.1 million top ten aggregate.

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 29	Location Count	% Change from Last Wknd
Candyman	Universal Pictures	$20,000,000	$20,000,000	3,569	NEW
Free Guy	20th Century Studios	$10,900,000	$76,700,000	3,940	-41%
PAW Patrol: The Movie	Paramount Pictures	$6,900,000	$24,800,000	3,189	-48%
Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney Studios	$4,400,000	$99,700,000	3,370	-31%
Respect	United Artists Releasing / MGM	$2,500,000	$19,900,000	2,607	-34%
Don’t Breathe 2	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$2,200,000	$24,000,000	2,703	-57%
The Suicide Squad	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,700,000	$52,300,000	~2,500	-50%
The Protégé	Lionsgate	$1,400,000	$5,400,000	~2,577	-52%
Reminiscence	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,100,000	$3,900,000	~3,265	-44%
The Night House	Searchlight Pictures	$1,000,000	$5,100,000	2,240	-65%

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-candyman-is-trending-for-a-late-summer-surprise-likely-to-dethrone-free-guy/

 

Opener Forecast Ranges

Candyman
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 26 million
Domestic Total Range: $40 – $75 million

 

Weekend Forecast

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decrease between 1 and 15 percent from last weekend’s $59.1 million top ten aggregate.

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 29	Location Count	% Change from Last Wknd
Candyman	Universal Pictures	$20,000,000	$20,000,000	3,569	NEW
Free Guy	20th Century Studios	$10,900,000	$76,700,000	3,940	-41%
PAW Patrol: The Movie	Paramount Pictures	$6,900,000	$24,800,000	3,189	-48%
Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney Studios	$4,400,000	$99,700,000	3,370	-31%
Respect	United Artists Releasing / MGM	$2,500,000	$19,900,000	2,607	-34%
Don’t Breathe 2	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$2,200,000	$24,000,000	2,703	-57%
The Suicide Squad	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,700,000	$52,300,000	~2,500	-50%
The Protégé	Lionsgate	$1,400,000	$5,400,000	~2,577	-52%
Reminiscence	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,100,000	$3,900,000	~3,265	-44%
The Night House	Searchlight Pictures	$1,000,000	$5,100,000	2,240	-65%

That FG drop seems excessive, i'm expecting 12-13M.

 

I would be happy with anything over 20M for Candyman tho

[WrathOfHan]

Didn't have the chance to track Candyman full numbers bc of a job interview but this afternoon it was around 110 seats, which is about 170% of Old (2.6M) and 50% of AQP2 (2.4M). Let's go in the middle and say 2.5M is my guess.

[Boxofficerules]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Didn't have the chance to track Candyman full numbers bc of a job interview but this afternoon it was around 110 seats, which is about 170% of Old (2.6M) and 50% of AQP2 (2.4M). Let's go in the middle and say 2.5M is my guess.

Our numbers are more important than your job interview.

[keysersoze123]

I just had a look at Candyman couple of days ago and MTC sales did not look like a breakout. Checked again now and walkups have been quite good. 

 

Candyman Previews

MTC1 - 33106/189409 501403.68 1123 shows

MTC2 - 19450/184829 250782.47 1235 shows

 

Thinking previews will be around 2.2m. Not sure if I can update again but there is enough data to extrapolate at this time. 

[Inceptionzq]

Candyman Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

57

598

9.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

47

454

10.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
536	N/A	6762	7.93%	15	40

 

AMCs sold	230
Cinemarks sold	136
Regals sold	124
Harkins sold	46

 

Conjuring Friday comp: 2.06M

AQP2 comp: 1.17M

Invisible Man comp: 1.04M

Doctor Sleep comp: 1.03M

IT 2 comp: 1.19M

 

Yeah just mark this up as an underperformance in Denver. Doesn't help that I don't really have any good comps.

[Cmasterclay]

I don't want to speak out of pocket here but isn't Denver like just a step above Portland/Salt Lake City levels of white? It's very Latino but it's not very black compared to most major metro areas.

[ThomasNicole]

With 2.2M it can open around 23-25M, if it's not very frontloaded.

 

Fingerst crossed