The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 8/28/2021 at 11:02 PM, Eric Robitaille said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1787	11464	15.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 114

 

Comp

1.381x of F9 T-5 (9.8M)

0.583x of Black Widow T-5 (7.7M)

3.497x of The Suicide Squad T-5 (14.34M)

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	60	1984	11464	17.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 197

 

Comp

1.416x of F9 T-4 (10.05M)

0.591x of Black Widow T-4 (7.8M)

3.274x of The Suicide Squad T-4 (13.42M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	15466	17611	2145	12.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

183

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	49.65		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		6.86m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 420/4674 [8.99% sold] [+37 tickets]

 

====

 

NOTE::::: 

 

Made an error in last night's report in that I put in the wrong number for the total amount of tickets Black Widow had sold as of T-6.  It should have been a comp of, ahem, 6.66m.

 

I've corrected it in the quote here and I'll edit my old post in a moment.

 

For the record, that did slightly affect my calcs in my post above as I was using some slightly off figures, but not by much.  If Shang-Chi does 70% of Black WIdow's ticket sales the rest of the way, that points to 8.35m.

 

(SC once again did 73% of BW T-5 sales for what it's worth)

 

Shang-Chi and the Legends of the Ten Rings 

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	15205	17611	2406	13.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

261

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	52.02		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		7.19m

COMP NOTE: BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 482/4674 [10.31% sold] [+62 tickets]

 

===

 

Very nice day today.  Shang-Chi did about 85% of Black Widow's T-4.  If there was a Cinemark effect (and I didn't really see one), it probably just spilled to nearby theaters.

 

Think I'll rope in a The Suicide Squad comp starting tomorrow.  Maaaaaaybe F9, but still mulling that one over.  F9 would have an Ontario adjustment, while TSS obviously would not.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/29/2021 at 10:52 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-5 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,110	2.71%	$13,042	$11.75
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,063	22.06%	$16,463	$15.49
Cine Capri	4	1,782	114	6.40%	$1,668	$14.63
IMAX	2	890	188	21.12%	$2,820	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,475	5.12%	$33,993	$13.73

 

Sold 169 seats today. SAT before release, so down day.

Shang Chi Harkins T-4 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,388	3.39%	$16,370	$11.79
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,148	23.83%	$17,756	$15.47
Cine Capri	4	1,782	131	7.35%	$1,839	$14.04
IMAX	2	890	201	22.58%	$3,015	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	2,868	5.93%	$38,980	$13.59

 

Sold 393 seats. Good day. Let's see how it maintain tomorrow. Should be 400 day may be. I will have comp with BW tomorrow. 

 

Comps

3.62x The Suicide Squad CA Gross - $14.84M

2.98x The Suicide Squad Estrella Fall & Arizona Mills Gross - $12.22M

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-4	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	43	7,251	467	28	6.44%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	569	62	9.53%
		Raleigh	8	31	3,846	527	34	13.70%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	108	17,065	1,563	124	9.16%

 

I'm not buying into the 8m+ previews yet with it still <50% of BW's sales at this point.  Leaning more towards 7m at this point in time.  

 

Comps

BW - .46x (6.09m)

F9 - 1.26x (8.94m)

TSS - 3.05x (12.49m)

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-3	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	50	7,741	532	65	6.87%
		Phoenix	6	34	5,968	652	83	10.92%
		Raleigh	8	33	3,992	633	106	15.86%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	117	17,701	1,817	254	10.26%

 

SC added 9 shows (646 seats) yesterday while more than doubling sales from the previous day.  Easily the best day for SC so far and makes 8m look a lot more likely if this isn't just a fluke day.  It has finally surpassed 50% of BW's tickets sold at this point and is just over 50% in total $ sales ($47,468 to $24,685).

 

Comps

BW - .507x (6.7m)

F9 - 1.25x (8.91m)

TSS - 2.94x (12.07m)

 

T-3 snapshot comparison

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	65	11,177	1,028	52	10.11%
	Phoenix	6	54	8,930	853	40	10.74%
	Raleigh	7	48	5,903	1,312	100	25.28%
Black Widow Total		19	167	26,010	3,193	192	13.77%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	38	7,449	320	52	5.45%
	Phoenix	6	47	7,731	386	64	6.21%
	Raleigh	7	29	3,811	434	91	14.75%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		19	114	18,991	1,140	207	7.62%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	159	36	4.61%
	Phoenix	6	24	3,826	160	28	5.70%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	154	40	6.07%
Suicide Squad Total		20	73	11,455	473	104	5.39%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	50	7,741	439	65	6.87%
	Phoenix	6	34	5,968	507	83	10.92%
	Raleigh	8	33	3,992	493	106	15.86%
Shang-Chi Total		20	117	17,701	1,439	254	10.26%

 

Daily sales rate comparison

 

 

Extended through T-1 hour (1)

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/6/2021 at 6:54 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Black Widow Cineplex T-3 Days

 

Montreal + Quebec City - 1964 (9)

Calgary - 1235 (8)

Edmonton - 1307 (6)

Vancouver + (Victoria, Surrey, etc.) - 3898 (13/15)

New Brunswick State - 431 (5)

Newfoundland State - 270 (2)

Nova Scotia - 538 (11/12)

Prince Edward Island - 100 (2)

Saskatchewan - 387 (6)

 

Total - 10,130 (62/65) ~$126K

 

So I tracked these manually. Literally 75% of open Canada Cineplex theaters (85).

 

Assuming they cover about 80% of open Cineplexes, i.e. $155K Approx. The No. 2 chain in Canada, Landmark has 31/46 open. That isn't as easy to track as Cineplex, so I won't attempt that. After doing some calculations, Landmark is probably around $50K, so $205K approx Canada previews so far on 110 theaters. 100 other are confirmed Closed. Usually Cineplex + Landmark are 85-90% of Canada. So I am gonna just se that ratio for overall $225K pre-sales.

 

 

On 8/25/2021 at 10:54 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi T-9 Days

 

Calgary - 627 (8)

Edmonton - 576 (6)

Shang Chi T-4 Days

 

Montreal + Quebec City - 1612 (11)

Vancouver + Others in BC - 3895 (16/16)

Calgary - 1021 (8)

Edmonton - 925 (6)

New Brunswick State - 284 (5)

Newfoundland - 219 (2)

Prince Edward - 63 (2)

 

Total - 8019 (50) 

 

87% of Black Widow T-3 in same centres.
77% of Black Widow T-3 ignoring BC.

 

BC as @DAJK mentioned is over indexing due to Chinese population and well Simu Liu is Canadian, so there gotta be support for home boy. These numbers are a day early than what I took for BW but BW was only in sale for a 6 days at that point while SC is on sale for 11 days now but I guess T-3 is as late as it could get for T-x days comp.

 

BW didn't release in ON and Manitoba, which are like 45% of Canadian box office so SC being overall ahead of BW was given. BW I think did $0.45-5M Approx in Canada during previews, SC probably will do $400-450K in same centres plus with help of ON and Manitoba, may be $725-825K overall previews. 

[WrathOfHan]

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 84/236 (+16)

6:10 Open Caption: 0/40 (New)

6:30 IMAX: 40/372 (+11)

7:00: 54/107 (+23)

7:30 3D: 0/107 (-)

9:30 Dolby: 49/236 (+16)

Total: 227/1,098 (+66/+40)

 

Comps:

 

63% of Black Widow the day before (8.3M)

176% of F9 three days out (12.3M)

206% of AQP2 two days out (9.9M)

280% of The Suicide Squad two days out (11.5M)

 

This is picking up the pace FAST. I'm shocked how much the standard show has gone up over the weekend. Assuming it maintains the same pace, it'll probably be 80-85% on the Black Widow comp come Wednesday. Interestingly, it's lost some ground against Suicide Squad, but I don't think that matters right now when 9M+ looks likely.

[el sid]

Shang-Chi counted today at 12pm EST for Thursday, September 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 356 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 472 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 76 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 118 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 636 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 880 (21 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.561.

Up 52% since last Monday.
Comps: TSS had also on Monday of its release week 1.385 sold tickets in the same 7 theaters. Means Shang-Chi = 1.85x TSS = 7.6M at the moment.
Birds of Prey's final Thursday number, counted on the same day = Thursday, was 2.085. So Shang-Chi leads (1.23x) and has still 3 days left to significantly increase the margin.
Edit: Sorry, that F9 number, 1.656 sold tickets, was for its Friday. Normally the Thursday and the Friday sales look pretty similar but I can't guarantee it. So better no comp here.
The AQPII comp which had on Monday of its release week 747 sold tickets is of course too high, 3.42x = 16.4M.

It lost some ground against TSS in my comp too but probably this isn't so surprising because TSS first looked better in my theaters than in (almost) every other report here. But then TSS had these tiny jumps in its last week which wrecked all chances for success. I bet Shang-Chi will have way better jumps.
Tomorrow I count the Friday (and at least on Thursday both days).

Edited August 30, 2021 by el sid

[Tinalera]

Shang Chi

Toronto Ontario

Taken Aug 30 for Thursday Sept 2

 

		Shang Chi
	21	4	25	Vip
	22	8	30
	24	4	28
Yonge Dundas	20	6	26
	23	7	30
	16	10	26
	70	31	101	Imax
	62	58	120
	22	1	23	4dx
	20	1	21
	54	53	107	reg
	42	87	129
Scotia	105	119	224	imax	huh?
	106	138	244		huh?
	80	214	294	3d
	38	298	336
Varsity	5	7	12	vip
			25	so (estimate total)
	8	4	12
	8	6	14
	109	76	185	reg
	36	304	340
yonge eglinton	100	13	113	3d
	64	275	339
	20	4	24	vip
	26	5	31
	18	4	22
	23	13	36
yorkdale	49	213	262	avx3d
	64	275	339	avx
	96	119	215
	30	310	340
	51	341	392	reg
	37	372	409
eglinton town	87	148	235	imax
	63	194	257
	45	141	186	3ddbox
	22	194	216
	31	218	249	reg
	11	276	287
queensway	66	160	226	avx3d
	41	242	283
	80	67	147	avx
	80	51	131
	31	14	45	vip
	23	14	37
	40	9	49
	42	10	52
	21	21	42
	18	32	50
	53	43	96	reg
	39	73	112
empress walk	84	64	148	imax
	52	165	217
	11	314	325	3d
	91	88	179	reg
	2500		8443
	Total Sold		Total Seats sold and available

[Tinalera]

So it seems Cineplex seems to wanting to mess with my mental state-basically looks like they are adding seats to certain screens (the huh comments are a couple of examples), so if suddenly seats available jumped up, Im thinking that Cineplex really is going by percentage of how many are in theatres, and not per screen-that's my guess anyway. 

 

Overall Shang Chi is having healthy growth by day. Seems theres a push to get out to theatres. Seeing as Shang Chi is Theatre only not streaming/theatre, be interesting to see if indeed those numbers as they come out.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)		(8pm)						6:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)			$13.2m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM

 

Comps:

BW:  $10.49m

SS: $15.35m

Joker: $7.7m

BOP: $10.7m

H&S: $18.36m

 

I'd toss Joker and H&S - the first is more pre- bought than usual even for CBMs and the later far more walk up heavy than CBMs. 

 

As of today, $10m seems to be quite possible.  Even (the tossed) Joker points to $8m

 

 

[Legion Again]

A regional overperformance seems likely from “NYC local” — but on the other hand, comps could still grow. I am still targeting 9-10ish national final.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/29/2021 at 3:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

350

1786

19.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

281

1396

20.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1528	99	15536	9.84%	15	85

 

AMCs sold	1058
Cinemarks sold	184
Regals sold	223
Harkins sold	63

 

Black Widow comp: 7.16M

Fast 9 comp: 11.70M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.73M

Shang-Chi Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

378

1786

21.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

349

1396

25.00%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1790	262	16946	10.56%	15	94

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1410

 

AMCs sold	1212
Cinemarks sold	213
Regals sold	269
Harkins sold	96

 

Black Widow comp: 7.58M

Fast 9 comp: 12.04M

Suicide Squad comp: 11.84M

 

Massive day. Over 86% of BW's pace today. Even increased with F9 and TSS, which was pretty surprising to me this late into the run. I hope this isn't just a blip. Let's see what the rest of the week brings.

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/29/2021 at 4:00 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday: 1532(+135)/16995 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 5.88M [3440(+243)]

Fast 9 comp: 13.00M

 

T-5 days Friday: 1129(+82)/36065 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 10.32M [2878(+265)]

Fast 9 comp: 20.48M

 

Friday is still all over the place. Hopefully today will be the last bad day for it.

Shang-Chi Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday: 1804(+272)/18498(+1503) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.30M [3779(+339)]

Fast 9 comp: 13.63M

 

T-4 days Friday: 1448(+319)/48654(+12589) in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 11.58M [3289(+411)]

Fast 9 comp: 22.37M

 

Fantastic day here as well

[charlie Jatinder]

Its Monday fellas.

 

The casual audience start waking up to film for booking them.

 

The hope is SC will be doing very close to BW now. The first leg of sales is supposed to be very fan loaded heavy. SC was never supposed to be anywhere close to BW but it managed to do 50% of BW at most places. Now's time to increase it.

 

Atleast theory says that.

[XXR vs XXR]

Even though I'm retired from the tracking game (May 2015 - December 2019, RIP) I'm pulling hard for Shang Chi to blow up big. Cheers to a $10M+ Thursday and $90M+ 4-Day! 

[katnisscinnaplex]

For the cities I track, BW increased by 105.5% between T-3 (Monday morning) to T-1 hour.  That would mean 1,918 new sales in that time needed to maintain 50% of BW.  As of this morning, SC had a huge day of 254 sales to bring its total to 1,817.  If it continues on BW track, the comps would be 6.7m for BW and 6.9m for F9.  Now here's the interesting part: BW had the smallest % increase in the last four days.  F9 (which SC has been tracking closest to) jumped 165% in the final days.  If SC can do that, we're looking at 8.6m for BW comp and 8.9m for the F9 comp.  TSS was even higher with a 217% jump.  I'm not even gonna entertain that with the numbers being so much lower.  All that to say, the potential is there.

[keysersoze123]

I will update later tonight but Presales for Previews and Friday is looking super strong. I think I will bump up my predictions at this time. Looking at Saturday PS its looking frontloaded but there is still time. 

[CJohn]

Shang-Chi set and ready for a cool 60M 4 day weekend. It will dominate all of September.

[Legion Again]

Guys I think it’s possible that this new character MCU entry might not have its PS run be as frontloaded as an OG Avenger’s 8th starring role. 

[Cmasterclay]

IMAX and Dolby shows are selling like crazy around here, but regular shows still a little meh. Worth noting that South Florida is one of the smaller metros for AAPI population, despite our otherwise huge diversity.