The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/31/2021 at 1:19 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	155	40,886	1,765	4.32%	$20,785	$11.78
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,292	26.82%	$19,939	$15.43
Cine Capri	4	1,782	155	8.70%	$2,145	$13.84
IMAX	2	890	219	24.61%	$3,285	$15.00
Total	177	48,376	3,431	7.09%	$46,154	$13.45

 

Well. Well. Well. Sold 563 seats today. HUGE increase. In last 4 days, added 1373 seats, compared to 1777 of Black Widow, which adjusted for higher ATP is almost 90% in GROSS.  BW final number was 3.58x of T-3 days, SC may be 4x.

 

Comps
63.09% of Black Widow Gross - $8.7M

322.5% of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $13.2M

 

Harkins will probably point toward $9.5-10M eventually I guess.

Shang Chi Harkins T-2 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	157	41,462	2,333	5.63%	$27,307	$11.70
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,412	29.31%	$21,762	$15.41
Cine Capri	4	1,782	172	9.65%	$2,364	$13.74
IMAX	2	890	247	27.75%	$3,705	$15.00
Total	179	48,952	4,164	8.51%	$55,138	$13.24

 

Sold 733 seats today. Unfortunately I don't have any comps for BW. I have some CA comps will post them. The target is $170K GROSS final now. Onward to that.

 

Since CA is over indexing this comp don't really matter much but here we go.

 

3.19x of The Suicide Squad Tracked Gross - $13.08M

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi Previews (T-2)

MTC1 - 89789/488413 1456903.53 2865 shows (+11147)

MTC2 - 50392/425765 686604.21 3133 shows(+7785)

 

Shang Chi Friday (T-3)

MTC1 - 83569/1028810 1307816.57 5613 shows(+16153)

MTC2 - 48697/876676 605578.24 6052 shows (+10210)

 

Shang Chi Saturday(T-4)

MTC1 - 54233/1108790 780772.69 6084 shows (+12006)

MTC2 - 31813/906658 367318.70 6190 shows(+6951)

 

Another good day. Previews sales did not amp up as much as what I thought was possible after yesterday's sales. But Friday had ginormous increase in showcount and excellent ticket sales as well. Tomorrow Friday will overtake Previews PS. 

 

Edit: Updated with Saturday PS. 

Is this a 24-hour pace? If so it's around 65% of BW's pace for Thursday in MTC2. 

Edited September 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

One thing I wanna say, we are using the words that SC is over indexing at MTC1 or underperforming at MTC2. Well, SC is actually doing what used to be normal. MTC1 is supposed to be more than double of MTC2 in pre-sales. 

 

Past summer, MTC2 was doing really big or over indexing while MTC1 was sort of normal. Donno what changed, but its welcome change if ratios get back to normal.

 

 

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, Menor said:

Is this a 24-hour pace? If so it's around 65% of BW's pace for Thursday in MTC2. 

I had it 61% MTC2. But 86% MTC1 for like 78% overall.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

I had it 61% MTC2. But 86% MTC1 for like 78% overall.

24-hr pace on Tuesday for BW was around 12k so it is around 65%.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	49	7,647	626	94	8.19%
		Phoenix	6	35	5,975	732	80	12.25%
		Raleigh	8	34	4,058	737	104	18.16%
	Shang-Chi Total		20	118	17,680	2,095	278	11.85%

 

Not really the Monday we were hoping for unfortunately.  Partly because of how big the Sunday jump was, but Monday only beat Sunday by 24 sales where BW jumped from 192 to 505 new.   While not exactly inspiring, it was a 15% jump in total sales compared to BW's 14% so it still improves the comp a little.    I'll update the graphs again tomorrow and Thursday when I have more time.  

 

Comps

BW - .513x (6.77m)

F9 - 1.21x (8.6m)

TSS - 2.87x (11.77M)

 

In total sales dollars, SC is at .52x of BW, $47,468 to $24,686.  This is calculated using the adult price for each ticket sold so far. 

 

T-2 Snapshot (*I've updated the T-3 snapshot above; I hadn't updated one of the custom fields from T-4 to T-3 so the Total Sold were too low.)

 

 

Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	66	11,271	1,310	180	11.62%
	Phoenix	6	59	9,189	1,058	99	11.51%
	Raleigh	7	53	6,328	1,718	226	27.15%
Black Widow Total		19	178	26,788	4,086	505	15.25%
F9: The Fast Saga	Jacksonville	6	42	7,818	481	75	6.15%
	Phoenix	6	47	7,731	580	100	7.50%
	Raleigh	8	35	4,235	669	107	15.80%
F9: The Fast Saga Total		20	124	19,784	1,730	282	8.74%
Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	25	4,604	241	38	5.23%
	Phoenix	6	26	3,923	260	42	6.63%
	Raleigh	8	25	3,230	228	32	7.06%
Suicide Squad Total		20	76	11,757	729	112	6.20%
Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	49	7,647	626	94	8.19%
	Phoenix	6	35	5,975	732	80	12.25%
	Raleigh	8	34	4,058	737	104	18.16%
Shang-Chi Total		20	118	17,680	2,095	278	11.85%

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	58	8,470	715	89	8.44%
		Phoenix	7	50	7,146	871	139	12.19%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,259	863	126	20.26%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	145	19,875	2,449	354	12.32%

 

Pretty good day considering yesterday being down.  Continues to slowly gain on BW while dropping against F9 as those comps converge.  A few theaters added a ton of shows while most kept the same amount.  I get the feeling that SC won't get nearly the number of shows that BW had; not sure how much that will hinder box office.  In $ sales, BW was ahead at this point $61,159 to $32,973. I'm still leaning on the conservative side of predictions with 7.5-8m at this point. 

 

Comps

BW - .52x (6.91m)

F9 - 1.12x (7.97m)

TSS - 2.56x (10.48m)

 

Edited September 1, 2021 by katnisscinnaplex
Submitted before adding content

[YM!]

12 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Shang-Chi and the Legend of The Ten Rings

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

Mequon, WI

9/3/21

 

6:00 - 40/116

7:00 - 93/301 - UltraScreen 

7:45 - 9/63

8:30 - 0/146

215.6% ahead of Birds of Prey ($104.2M)

14.5% ahead of Venom ($91.9M)

95.9% of Ant-Man and The Wasp ($72.7M)

67.2% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($78.8M)

59% of Thor: Ragnarok ($72.6M)

50.7% of IT ($62.6M)

47.8% of Justice League ($44.9M)

 

 

It’s good to back dropping some ticket tracking locally y’all. Anyways while these comparisons are very old, it’s impressive that Shang-Chi for the most part is closely following these comparisons during a pandemic with less preview showtimes. I think that a $65m-$70m weekend seems really likely.

Updated with a Birds of Prey comparison, and that was just a month before the pandemic, which in theory would be the best comparison of the bunch but that would indicate an OW with the potential of 100m, however BOP skewed less towards families cause R rating and due to the pandemic I’m thinking less families will go to Shang-Chi but it seems rather hopeful.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

Is this a 24-hour pace? If so it's around 65% of BW's pace for Thursday in MTC2. 

Its tad more than 24 hours for thursday. Late PS did pick up quite a bit and there were ginormous amounts of shows added especially for Fri/Sat. 

Edited September 1, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Borobudur]

With SC going this strong, I guess FG will drop considerably more this week even with LD holiday

[charlie Jatinder]

Well Deadline joke prediction are here
‘Shang-Chi’ Bound For Labor Day Weekend Record With $90M+ WW Launch – Box Office Preview

 

But there's some useful info.

Quote

As of yesterday, advance U.S./Canada ticket sales for Shang-Chi are running 20% behind that of Black Widow‘s which has posted the biggest domestic opening during the pandemic with $80.4M (that was with a simultaneous day-and-date on Disney+ Premier, the streamer’s PVOD tier). Black Widow‘s advance ticket sales repped 28% of its opening weekend, while F9‘s advance ticket sales repped 20% of its $70M opening weekend. Shang-Chi will have the full swath of 400 IMAX auditoriums, 850+ premium large format screens, 1,500 3D locations; and 235 specialty D-Box/4D screens.

 

Ofcourse just having numbers don't make anything. You have to read them. 

 

First off I don't know if this data came from Disney or some exhibition but seems like they aren't considering THU as pre-sales.

 

Second, if pre-sales are 20% less than BW, how dumb you have to be think that opening weekend will be 50% less that too when BW was Summer release while SC is Labor day weekend release with Sunday gonna hardly drop from SAT. 
 

Edited September 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[MrPink]

...20% behind BW advance ticket sales but will launch with 45-50m? OK.

[Krissykins]

Deadline/Industry low ball will help the headlines on Sunday. $75m is my prediction for the 4 day.

[charlie Jatinder]

If SC open $40-50M 4 days, we should just close this thread. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Well Deadline joke prediction are here
‘Shang-Chi’ Bound For Labor Day Weekend Record With $90M+ WW Launch – Box Office Preview

 

But there's some useful info.

 

Ofcourse just having numbers don't make anything. You have to read them. 

 

First off I don't know if this data came from Disney or some exhibition but seems like they aren't considering THU as pre-sales.

 

Second, if pre-sales are 20% less than BW, how dumb you have to be think that opening weekend will be 50% less that too when BW was Summer release while SC is Labor day weekend release with Sunday gonna hardly drop from SAT. 
 

How can it be only 20% though? Canada is really overperforming that much? 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

How can it be only 20% though? Canada is really overperforming that much? 

 

Well, you have to also understand - Deadline and Math are not two words that go together:)...they had to compute a %, so that computation has to be seen as suspect without the real figures:)...

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

How can it be only 20% though? Canada is really overperforming that much? 

Thing is they may be just having say MTC 1 pre-sales and thinking well USA will be similar. Per my estimates it was 30% behind as of yesterday.

[Legion Again]

20% makes sense only interpreted as recent run rate rather than cume.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

20% makes sense only interpreted as recent run rate rather than cume.

Who knows MTC3 is overindexing 😁

Mtc 3 be like, "why should 1 & 2 have all the fun"

Edited September 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[WrathOfHan]

Full showtimes are up, and it happened....

 

Shang-Chi:

6:00 Dolby: 106/236 (+6)

6:15 Open Caption: 4/40 (+2)

6:30 IMAX: 67/372 (+7)

7:00: 64/107 (+5)

7:15: 11/40 (New)

7:30 3D: 12/107 (+7)

7:45: 0/40 (New)

8:00: 7/107 (New)

8:15: 0/77 (New)

8:30: 0/107 (New)

8:45: 0/40 (New)

9:00: 2/77 (New)

9:15: 5/40 (New)

9:30 Dolby: 88/236 (+18)

9:45: 0/40 (New)

Total: 366/1,626 (+70/+528)

 

Comp:

 

101% of Black Widow the day before (13.3M)

 

 

It's now on par with Black Widow

 

I'll give a word of caution that the metro area has an extra 15-20k students in town compared to July, but I don't think that's enough to skew the comp more than 5% or so. We also know Shang-Chi is over indexing in larger areas. With that, my current guess is 10.5-11M. Let's see how tomorrow pans out.

[DAJK]

Guys Shang chi is KILLING it in Canada. Over 1M in pre-sales for the weekend, that’s more than BW had at this point.

Edited September 1, 2021 by DAJK