The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Fanatstic Beasts

2. The Grinch

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Ralph

5. Creed II

I GOT LOYALTY

[Valonqar]

Ralph and Creed 2 are gonna blow up. 

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/the-grinch-bohemian-rhapsody-overlord-veterans-day-box-office-1202500884/

 

A hold in the -40% range is in store this coming weekend for The Grinch as Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald flies in to feast on more pre-Thanksgiving dollars, which many in the industry believe is at $70M (the 2016 first chapter opened to $74.4M).

[Welfin]

70m is a pipe dream.

 

60m might be a longshot at this point. 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Previews/OW

 

 

Fantastic Beasts 2

8,956

 

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

$10m/$80.2m

 

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

$11.5m/ $75.8m

 

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

$15.3m/ $148m

 

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

$14.1m/$84.42m

 

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

$18.6m/$125.5m

 

Avengers: Infinity War

49,836

54,892

68,826

206,000

$39m/ $267.698m

 

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by TalismanRing

[LonePirate]

One local AMC 20plex has showtimes up for Friday. Beasts is one four screens while Widows is on only one. This theater is in an upscale, adult-friendly neighborhood. That scheduling manager should speak to corporate for more training or better info.

[Valonqar]

FB skews more adult than HP. 

[WrathOfHan]

36 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

One local AMC 20plex has showtimes up for Friday. Beasts is one four screens while Widows is on only one. This theater is in an upscale, adult-friendly neighborhood. That scheduling manager should speak to corporate for more training or better info.

I'm at universal rn, but in Tallahassee, the 20plex AMC only had one average auditorium for it. That may change with full showtimes

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

FB skews more adult than HP. 

 

Must be quite true that fanbase even the 9 year's old in 2008 are adult now, by 2011 it was probably already quite adult.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Barnack

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

HP in 2018 skew more adult than HP in 2013 also (that fanbase even the 9 year's old in 2008 are adult now).

Growing up with HP kids is an experience that won't be repeated. 

[filmlover]

53 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

One local AMC 20plex has showtimes up for Friday. Beasts is one four screens while Widows is on only one. This theater is in an upscale, adult-friendly neighborhood. That scheduling manager should speak to corporate for more training or better info.

 

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm at universal rn, but in Tallahassee, the 20plex AMC only had one average auditorium for it. That may change with full showtimes

It's being booked on only one screen everywhere including my multiplex, which is a very popular location for upscale fare (although they're putting it in one of the biggest auditoriums). Hardly surprising when it's only expected to make mid-teens at best this weekend and screen space is about to get extremely tight (Bohemian Rhapsody is being sent to smaller auditoriums this weekend, for instance).

Edited November 13, 2018 by filmlover

[FantasticBeasts]

Fantastic Beasts Pulse Tuesday Until 2 p.m. 5.986 tickets across all formats.

Fantastic Beasts Pulse Monday Until 2 p.m. 3.023 tickets across all formats.

Seems like a nice increase BUT, there are screenings today so that's a nice little disclaimer. If the comparison remains the same till the end of the day, it will end Tuesday with 17.734 tickets. Comparisons are above considering that @TalismanRing counts all formants and we have the same source. (http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt)

[TwoMisfits]

So, does anyone have JL presales from last year?  While it's dated info, it's the same opening weekend audience with a similar franchise appeal...I'd love to see how sales are comparing (yes, I know JL presales fell off a cliff in the 48 hours pre-open, so it seemed until the very last minute that it would open way higher than it did open)...

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Fantastic Beasts Pulse Tuesday Until 2 p.m. 5.986 tickets across all formats.

Fantastic Beasts Pulse Monday Until 2 p.m. 3.023 tickets across all formats.

Seems like a nice increase BUT, there are screenings today so that's a nice little disclaimer. If the comparison remains the same till the end of the day, it will end Tuesday with 17.734 tickets. Comparisons are above considering that @TalismanRing counts all formants and we have the same source. (http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt)

 

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, does anyone have JL presales from last year?  While it's dated info, it's the same opening weekend audience with a similar franchise appeal...I'd love to see how sales are comparing (yes, I know JL presales fell off a cliff in the 48 hours pre-open, so it seemed until the very last minute that it would open way higher than it did open)...

It's getting few Fan Fest sales according to Fandango:

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-11-13 13:58:16 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-11-13 14:00:00	528	Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	447	Bohemian Rhapsody
2018-11-13 14:00:00	365	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
2018-11-13 14:00:00	148	Overlord (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	134	A Star Is Born (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	112	The Girl in the Spiders Web
2018-11-13 14:00:00	97	Nobodys Fool
2018-11-13 14:00:00	60	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
2018-11-13 14:00:00	49	Venom (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	44	Halloween (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	39	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-11-13 14:00:00	36	Dr. Seuss The Grinch 3D (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	34	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event
2018-11-13 14:00:00	28	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 3D
2018-11-13 14:00:00	28	Widows (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	22	Can You Ever Forgive Me
2018-11-13 14:00:00	21	Beautiful Boy (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	20	Ralph Breaks the Internet
2018-11-13 14:00:00	20	Instant Family (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	20	Creed II
2018-11-13 14:00:00	14	Boy Erased
2018-11-13 14:00:00	12	The Hate U Give
2018-11-13 14:00:00	11	Smallfoot
2018-11-13 14:00:00	10	Hunter Killer (2018)
2018-11-13 14:00:00	10	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event The IMAX 2D Experience

 

2018-11-13 13:00:00	821	Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	701	Bohemian Rhapsody
2018-11-13 13:00:00	581	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
2018-11-13 13:00:00	238	A Star Is Born (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	233	The Girl in the Spiders Web
2018-11-13 13:00:00	227	Overlord (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	159	Nobodys Fool
2018-11-13 13:00:00	130	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
2018-11-13 13:00:00	70	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-11-13 13:00:00	64	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event
2018-11-13 13:00:00	63	Venom (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	53	Dr. Seuss The Grinch 3D (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	53	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 3D
2018-11-13 13:00:00	50	Widows (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	47	Halloween (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	45	Creed II
2018-11-13 13:00:00	45	Ralph Breaks the Internet
2018-11-13 13:00:00	39	Can You Ever Forgive Me
2018-11-13 13:00:00	36	Instant Family (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	31	Beautiful Boy (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	28	The Hate U Give
2018-11-13 13:00:00	20	Burn the Stage the Movie
2018-11-13 13:00:00	18	Hunter Killer (2018)
2018-11-13 13:00:00	18	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-11-13 13:00:00	16	Overlord The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-11-13 13:00:00	16	Boy Erased
2018-11-13 13:00:00	13	Free Solo
2018-11-13 13:00:00	12	Coldplay A Head Full of Dreams
2018-11-13 13:00:00	12	Smallfoot
2018-11-13 13:00:00	11	Thugs of Hindostan
2018-11-13 13:00:00	10	First Man

(Posted an hour back as well because of the rollover effect)

 

It... could be better for FB2, is probably the way I would put it.

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It... could be better for FB2, is probably the way I would put it.

Fuck my english..

Does this mean it is looking better or worse than it was yesterday?

[filmlover]

A lot of theaters around me aren't booking Fantastic Beasts on very many screens (even my multiplex is giving it 3 screens only with a 4th added late at night Friday and Saturday). A part of this is because there's so much coming out and only so much theater real estate that's available but the signs sure are pointing to a domestic underperformance at this point.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Fuck my english..

Does this mean it is looking better or worse than it was yesterday?

About the same. 

 

And since I've been comparing this film to Solo in its pattern of presales for quite a while now, I'll let you draw your own conclusions about what I mean by that.

 

NOTE:::: The above is my gut reaction at seeing the numbers as they come in, and not based on any sort of hard data/number crunching.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Porthos

[Eric Duncan]

My theater's also not giving FB2 a lot of love either. Just four showings, half 2D, half 3D. That was what it was at when pre-sales first started. Typically tentpoles like these double, or at least add one or two more showings by the end of the week. But Beasts? Nah. Granted there are two other openers, as well as a lot of holdovers, but it does seem a bit strange.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

My theater's also not giving FB2 a lot of love either. Just four showings, half 2D, half 3D. That was what it was at when pre-sales first started. Typically tentpoles like these double, or at least add one or two more showings by the end of the week. But Beasts? Nah. Granted there are two other openers, as well as a lot of holdovers, but it does seem a bit strange.

I think the fact Fox and Paramount dated other openers that'll land in at least the teens (compared to the stack of nonstarters that opened against the first Fantastic Beasts) was perhaps the first clue that Hollywood saw this as a vulnerable franchise.

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-could-seize-as-much-as-275m-in-global-launch-box-office-preview-1202501299/

 

Quote

Holiday moviegoing will explode this weekend as Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter spinoff Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald takes over the world with a global near everywhere opening ranging that at the lowest looks to be coming in at $253M and at the highest $275M. On the low end that’s 15% higher than the worldwide launch of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them back in November 2016.

 

Broken out Grindelwald is looking at $65M-$70M stateside with another $188M-$205M per industry estimates from foreign markets. Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them bowed to $145.5M in 63 overseas markets at historical rates and without China and Japan. In like-for-likes, and including China, that translates to about $180M today. FB2 is opening in 79 markets out of 80 (WB has adjusted the way it counts overseas territories since 2016).

 

Grindelwald isn’t the only movie going after families: Paramount has the Mark Wahlberg-Rose Byrne comedy Instant Family in 3,258 theaters and it’s eyeing a mid-teen to $20M launch. Previews start Thursday at 7PM.

 

20th Century Fox has See-Saw’s socio-drama-heist movie Widows from 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen which tracking has also in the mid-teen, possibly $20M opening range.