The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

So, did I miss it, or did Deadline literally make no comment on this opening weekend's tracking or their personal box office predictions for Shazam and Pet Semetary?

[XXR vs XXR]

27 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I'm gonna guess First Colony?

 

They were slated for a recliner upgrade that kept getting pushed back, so dollars to donuts they got it underway a while back and they are hurrying the fuck up to get every theater ready to go, but they can't publish times in theaters they aren't sure will be up and running.

Lolol you're correct. Sucks for them. Hopefully they get it done with enough time left that most of their regulars don't go elsewhere. 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Lolol you're correct. Sucks for them. Hopefully they get it done with enough time left that most of their regulars don't go elsewhere. 

 

Yeah, anytime the upgrade happens they know they are gonna miss out as they are down auditoriums for months at a time, and I’m sure they knew how big this one would be(I doubt they knew it would be THIS big), so I have to imagine they’ll be good to go. 

[DAJK]

Pet Sematary about 65% of Glass at local theatre ($2.37M previews, or $25.85M for the weekend) so pretty much expected.

 

Shazam! IMAX was only 31% of Aquaman, so using that comp you get about $2.75M previews so ouch. But if it is indeed more walk-up based I could compare with something like Bohemian Rhapsody which definitely had its fans but I don't think quite as rabid as a CBM (130% Bohemian, aka $5.1M previews). 

[Porthos]

*sees @Deep Wang post in thread*

*hurriedly clicks on thread*

 

Oh.

 

*sees Deep Wang post in thread again*

*clicks quickly*

 

Ah.

 

===

 

I am a disappoint, Deep Wang.

 

(lol j/k naturally )

 

 

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*sees @Deep Wang post in thread*

*hurriedly clicks on thread*

 

Oh.

 

*sees Deep Wang post in thread again*

*clicks quickly*

 

Ah.

 

===

 

I am a disappoint, Deep Wang.

 

(lol j/k naturally )

 

 

This was me too! you ain't the only one.

[HouseOfTheSun]

How much of previews audience would have been eroded by early screenings 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

How much of previews audience would have been eroded by early screenings 

A large amount, I would think, but not all.  Just being on a Saturday made it more convenient for some folks.

 

How many?  No clue whatsoever.

[FlashMaster659]

Endgame Fandango

 

00:00 32,688

[TalismanRing]

There will probably be a bump of couple of hundred here or there but as of Midnight CST

 

Avengers: 30,022
Shazam: 17,013
PS: 8,556
US: 4,236
CM: 3,784
Dumbo: 3,342
The Best of Enemies: 1,027

 

Shazam!

 

53.89% of Venom $10m in previews with a 5pm start - $5.389m.  Maybe a 10% knock for an hour earlier which would bring it down to around $4.85m

67.5% of AQM which did $9m with a 7pm start  =  $6.075 previews.  But a 4pm start probably knock that down at least 20-30% so $4.25  -$ 4.85m

 

Edit: Both well off Deadline's $4.1-4.4 but maybe they know the % of tickets bought for the FSS w/e and not just previews, or the %s aren't working or they're Deadline.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2019 by TalismanRing

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

53.89% of Venom $10m in previews with a 5pm start - $53.89m.  Maybe a 10% knock for an hour earlier which would bring it down to around $4.85m

67.5% of AQM which did $9m with a 7pm start  =  $6.075 previews.  But a 4pm start probably knock that down at least 20-30% so $4.25  -$ 4.85m

Why would starting previews earlier mean lower previews gross?

[TalismanRing]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Why would starting previews earlier mean lower previews gross?

Hah, it shouldn't I was thinking lower internal multiples then for some reason did a % on the previews.   I should go back to sleep. 

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	9	219	6257	22905	72.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         7 (inc 1 non reserved showing)

Total Seats Added Today:            429

Total Seats Sold Today:               566

 

Infinity War Comps:

2.5981x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after three day of pre−sales.
2.0303x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 21 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.0790x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
0.9564x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally, unless specifically noted otherwise.

 

IW (day 3):          264 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 5033/10500 seats left  | 52.07% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 3):  312 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/219 showings | 4258/18462 seats left  | 76.94% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 3): 272 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/193 showings | 3659/16249 seats left  | 77.48% sold]

----

IW (T-21):    6996 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/116 showings    | 4129/11125 seats left  | 62.89% sold]  

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   14204 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/219 showings   | 4258/18462 seats left  | 76.94% sold]

EG (exact**):  12590 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/193 showings   | 3659/16249 seats left  | 77.48% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

8.9843x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel after three days of pre-sales. 

5.0114x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 21 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre-sales versus EG's 23 days]

1.5776x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking. 

 

CM (day 3):   160 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/81 showings  |  8755/10608 seats left | 17.47% sold]

CM (T-21) :  3322 tickets sold so far   [2 sellouts/81 showings   | 7294/10616 seats left  | 31.29% sold]

CM (final):  10553 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/92 showings    | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:            16648 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/219 showings | 6257/22905 seats left  | 72.68% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps:

Spoiler

 

4.8761x as many tickets sold as Solo after two days of pre-sales.

1.7527x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.

1.7465x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.

2.4536x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.

2.2807x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

Solo (day 3):  122 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/87 showings    |  6435/9348 seats left   | 31.16% sold]

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   14202 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/219 showings   | 4258/18462 seats left  | 76.94% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri: 0 sellouts/240 showings (-1/nc) [IW: 0/214]

Sat: 0 sellouts/240 showings (nc)       [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellout/230 showings (nc)       [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  9/219 (+0/+7)  [2D: 8/175 (+0/+6) | 3D: 1/44 (+0/+1)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 190 screens (+6) [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       9* [nc] [IW: 1]

90-95%: 38  [+5} [IW: 10]

80-89%: 50 [nc]   [IW: 9]

70-79%: 29 [+3]  [IW: 17]

60-69%: 24 [nc]   [IW: 17]

50-59%: 12 [-2]  [IW: 6]

40-49%:   8 [+3]  [IW: 7]

30-39%:   3 [-2]  [IW: 5]

20-29%:   6 [-1]  [IW: 4]

10-19%:   4 [+1]  [IW: 6]

0-9%:       9 [-1]   IW: 0]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

Edited April 5, 2019 by Porthos
Corrected a couple of errors - EG Adj was typed in wrong

[AnDr3s]

the 4 million to 4.4 are final numbers?

[mulderfox]

4 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the 4 million to 4.4 are final numbers?

Don't forget the 3.3 million it made in its screening. So its actually over 7 million.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the 4 million to 4.4 are final numbers?

Too early to be final, we'll get those around 10am EST tomorrow

[nevermore]

5 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the 4 million to 4.4 are final numbers?

Final numbers around 8-9 hours from now

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

There will probably be a bump of couple of hundred here or there but as of Midnight CST

 

Avengers: 30,022
Shazam: 17,013
PS: 8,556
US: 4,236
CM: 3,784
Dumbo: 3,342
The Best of Enemies: 1,027

 

Shazam!

 

53.89% of Venom $10m in previews with a 5pm start - $5.389m.  Maybe a 10% knock for an hour earlier which would bring it down to around $4.85m

67.5% of AQM which did $9m with a 7pm start  =  $6.075 previews.  But a 4pm start probably knock that down at least 20-30% so $4.25  -$ 4.85m

 

Edit: Both well off Deadline's $4.1-4.4 but maybe they know the % of tickets bought for the FSS w/e and not just previews, or the %s aren't working or they're Deadline.

 

 

CM got up to 90% of Us in fandango sales huh? Curious to see what the ratio of daily gross is.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	9	219	6257	22905	72.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         7 (inc 1 non reserved showing)

Total Seats Added Today:            429

Total Seats Sold Today:               566

 

IW (day 3):          264 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 5033/10500 seats left  | 52.07% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 3):  312 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/219 showings | 4258/18462 seats left  | 76.94% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 3): 272 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/193 showings | 3659/16249 seats left  | 77.48% sold]

 

Starting to slow down a bit at the exact same theater metric.  But that's partially because most of the showings added the last two days were at the two theaters I didn't have tracking info for most of last year.  And much of the rest of the difference is because one of the theaters that has EG but not IW also added a showing.

 

Still, that EG was still able to match IW even on the most restrictive measurement shows there is still a little bit of blood left to squeeze out of this stone.

 

Maybe not THAT much blood, but some nonetheless.

 

====

 

And unless showings keep getting added each day, I do expect the tickets sold per day to drop pretty rapidly.  I mean, look at the following:

 

100%:       9

90-95%: 38  

80-89%: 50 

70-79%: 29 

60-69%: 24 

50-59%: 12 

40-49%:   8 

30-39%:   3 

20-29%:   6 

10-19%:   4 

0-9%:       9 

 

Just not a lot of room for massive growth here.

 

Now there are a few theaters in town which could stand to add a few more showings (which they'll do sooner or later).  Just saying don't be surprised to see the slowdown to start in earnest soon. 

[TalismanRing]

Not a lot of growth at my local either unless people want 3D seats  The 2D, RPX & fan Showing shows are all pretty much front row and wheelchair places left

They've added 3 more regular 2D times but they haven't gone live yet and to match AIW they'd have to add another 2 so people are most likely waiting.

 

2D:  1235/ 1408= 87.71%

RPX:  590/640 = 92.19%

Fan Fest:  251/257 = 97.66%

3D: 724/1689 =  42.87%  (4.25% rise)

 

2800/3994   = 70.1%

Without 3D being force fed (7 out of 15 showings is ridiculous) they probably could have sold at least another 600-700 seats. I guess they're hoping people will be desperate enough to see it o/w that the $3.50 mark up will be worth it.