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What a WONDERful Weekend | WW down only 16% on Sunday. 103M weekend. pg 226

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I do think 3x multi is likely the best case scenario, maybe 3.2x at an Iron Man level.

 

It had a really strong IM compared to most large opening summer tentpoles, so that could lead to a larger than normal DOM multi.

 

I also think WW playing well with female and older audiences will lead to better legs than younger oriented comic book movies.

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12 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

Mmmm...coming up with the best multipliers for non-animated films opening over 90m in the summer, I get:

 

GotG1 : 3.5x (August)

JW: 3.1x

TA: 3x

TDK: 3.3x (9 years ago)

Dead Man's Chest: 3.1x (11 years ago)

Spider-Man: 3.5x (15 years ago).

Crystal Skull: 3.1x (9 years ago).

Iron Man 1: 3.2x (9 years ago)

Matrix Reloaded: 3x (13 years ago)

 

And that's it. Everything else - and there's a couple dozens films in there - falls below 3x. I think the pattern is clear.

 

So it seems to me that 3x is the absolute best case scenario for WW, and we should actually be looking at less than that given how few films have managed to get there in recent times, even with good WOM.  All in all, I'm not seeing those 300m predictions. Even a WOM wonder like the first Spider-Man film "only" managed 3.5x, 15 years ago. 

 

That said, I hope to be proven wrong. It would be nice to have WW buck that trend and become a rare box office surprise. But BO history is not on her side.

 

 

 

Thx this post is very enlighting.

 

Obviously, having a 3+ multiplier in this day and age is super rare and tough so we ll see if Wondy can do it.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Crystal Skull and Matrix Reloaded were not Friday openers.

 

You're right. I took out the Transformer films because they weren't Friday openers either, but forgot about those two. I was even there Wednesday night for Crystal Skull! - but I think we can all understand why I'd want to forget that.

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Just now, BluRayHiDef said:

 

I'm so sorry. Please don't punish me. Also, thanks for moving it for me. 

 

No worries, you're new, you don't know all the ins and outs of how we do things. The Review thread also offers a poll where you can give the movie a grade, if you want. 

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2 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

 

Why? Just interesting. Competition isn't strong, WOM is excellent (or very good). I think 300m is a real aim.

CBMs (or any blockbusters for that matter) have an incredibly hard time reaching a 3x. A movie which I think is a solid comparison is Doctor Strange. That opened lower than WW, also had excellent word-of-mouth and had the holidays to help legs and still "only" managed a 2.75x. I don't see why WW would do much better. Also, competition may not be brutal, but it's far from weak. The Mummy is not really a threat, but Cars 3 will take away families, Transformers 5 will take away theaters (even if it doesn't do too well), Despicable Me 3 will take away more families and July looks quite competitive as a whole. I think it's gonna hold up much better than the other DCEU films because WOM is clearly great, but for the above reasons I think MoS numbers are the absolute high end. Again, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong, but I'm just not feeling a 3x.

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6 minutes ago, God Emperor Tele said:

 

No worries, you're new, you don't know all the ins and outs of how we do things. The Review thread also offers a poll where you can give the movie a grade, if you want. 

 

Thanks. 

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It's odd that the last guaranteed $50M+ opener of the summer is War for the Planet of the Apes on July 14, especially after Suicide Squad opened to $133M last early August. Hopefully there are a handful of surprises in those remaining few weeks before school goes back in session.

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's odd that the last guaranteed $50M+ opener of the summer is War for the Planet of the Apes on July 14, especially after Suicide Squad opened to $133M last early August. Hopefully there are a handful of surprises in those remaining few weeks before school goes back in session.

 

Have you forgotten about Spider-Man: Homecoming

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's odd that the last guaranteed $50M+ opener of the summer is War for the Planet of the Apes on July 14, especially after Suicide Squad opened to $133M last early August. Hopefully there are a handful of surprises in those remaining few weeks before school goes back in session.

 

Spider man, Transformer, Despicable Me 3, all before I guess august is weak.

Edited by Barnack
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There is an "untitled WB event film" scheduled for February 2020. Could this be where a WW sequel lands? I don't see any other major film there. Deadpool thrived in February, plus in 2020, St. Valentine's day falls on a Friday. I could totally see WW2 taking the February OW record, and maybe it could become a date-night event on its first Friday (provided no snowstorm fucks it all up): https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/february/2020

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