5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[AJG]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

250 dom should be locked for JL after this weekend.

Keeping the same dom/ O.S Ratio gives it  750ww.

 

It's still unbelievable. Before BVS I would have said JL could've done Ultron numbers.

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Your total rep and # of posts are identical. That's pretty remarkable given how many hours of your life you've apparently spent posting here. Amazing, really. 

so again, 65-70 5-day and 100-105 rest of the run? 

Edited November 23, 2017 by a2knet

[Brainbug]

@SteveJaros what is your TLJ prediction? Im like really curious.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

@SteveJaros what is your TLJ prediction? Im like really curious.

Probably something like $60M opening day and $150M total. Cause he would.

[RandomCat]

34 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Not nearly among Pixar's best

It's in a class above their best.

[Empire]

2 hours ago, Rth Ragnarok said:

what DHD said, but Coco 13.6

This is a great # for Coco!

[AJG]

16 minutes ago, a2knet said:

so again, 65-70 5-day and 100-105 rest of the run? 

 

You have to make 2 more posts. Keep them numbers in sync.

[Krissykins]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

@SteveJaros what is your TLJ prediction? Im like really curious.

Mine is at least a 20% audience bleed from TFA’s opening weekend. Down $50m or 5-6m admissions. 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

 

Sounds like you're pinning your hopes on a last-second, skin of your teeth win at the buzzer. That's fine, but don't act like you've DOMinated the yearly DOM, because you've been playing from behind the whole time. 

I don't know why I'm engaging but the parade hasn't started yet and I don't feel like making fucking pie crust.

 

Way to go out on a ledge predicting a studio that released 16 movies vs one that released 5 movies (including one nature documentary) over the course of the first 10 months might be ahead at B.O.  at some point.  

 

Alas your fevered dream of JL > Thor + Coco and your delusion SW 8 would make about $200m has collapsed and put a bit of crimp in your forecast. 

 

Who'd have guessed? Everyone else who knew there are 12 months in a year.

 

Edited November 23, 2017 by TalismanRing

[Brainiac5]

40 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It's still unbelievable. Before BVS I would have said JL could've done Ultron numbers.

That’s a sailed ship,Now the film has to focus on being sucessful as that matters firstly above all

else.

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Mine is at least a 20% audience bleed from TFA’s opening weekend. Down $50m or 5-6m admissions. 

 

 

You mean only OW or? I think it will open on par or even above TFA but will have shorter legs for a 750-825M total.

[druv10]

I'm on the 300M bandwagon for Coco, such an emotional movie. I don't think, I've nearly cried as much in a movie before. It's perfect for holiday season, it's going to have great legs. Family angle hits home whether a teen or an adult, such a wonderful film.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

For long? This race started January 1st, and it's November 23rd and I'm in the lead. That's pretty deep into the race eh and I've been winning for a long while.

 

Sounds like you're pinning your hopes on a last-second, skin of your teeth win at the buzzer. That's fine, but don't act like you've DOMinated the yearly DOM, because you've been playing from behind the whole time. 

You make it sound as if you're winning since January started. For what's worth, Universal led the 1st two months of the year, and then it was all Disney until I believe September, when It pushed WB over. Disney led from March through August - 6 months, aka half a year. For WB's lead, it's been 3 months, which is a while, but definitely not a "long while" or "the whole time". So.... "you've been winning for a long while" is debatable, when you equate that to the actual length of a calendar year and how long WB has actually been winning.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I don't know why I'm engaging but the parade hasn't started yet and I don't feel like making fucking pie crust.

 

Way to go out on a ledge predicting a studio that released 16 movies vs one that released 5 movies (including one nature documentary) over the course of the first 10 months might be ahead at B.O.  at some point.  

 

Alas your fevered dream of JL > Thor + Coco and your delusion SW 8 would make about $200m has collapsed and put a bit of crimp in your forecast. 

 

Who'd have guessed? Everyone else who knew there are 12 months in a year.

 

Agreed here. Not taking away from WB as they’ve had an incredible year, but the fact that WB did what it did and Disney still competed (and will win in the end) with 6 films tells you enough 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

You make it sound as if you're winning since January started. For what's worth, Universal led the 1st two months of the year, and then it was all Disney until I believe September, when It pushed WB over. Disney led from March through August - 6 months, aka half a year. For WB's lead, it's been 3 months, which is a while, but definitely not a "long while" or "the whole time". So.... "you've been winning for a long while" is debatable, when you equate that to the actual length of a calendar year and how long WB has actually been winning.

 

You try to reason with a troll. It wont work .

[La Binoche]

Movietickets 

 

2. JL - 18.8%

3. Wonder - 18.7%

 

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

Movietickets 

 

2. JL - 18.8%

3. Wonder - 18.7%

 

Wonder to JL:

Feel the force behind your........

[Lordmandeep]

I dont see JL doing that well over Thanksgiving

 

buzz for that film has turned negative, many who would be interested will just skip it. 

[RamblinRed]

The idea that WB is going to be higher at the end of the year than Disney in 2017 is laughable at this point.

Let's look at this analytically.

As of Nov 12th WB was at $1.788 and Disney at $1.614. So WB is up $174MM. Since then JL made $111MM through Tuesday, but Thor made $41MM - so that adds $70MM to WB's lead

putting it at $244MM up. But yesterday Thor and Coco combined are looking to be about $7MM up on JL bringing that down to $237MM. 

 

I expect Coco will outperform JL for the rest of the winter season and T:R is still out there so Disney is going to be making up money every day from now until the end of the year. 

By the time TLJ comes out the spread could be under $200MM (and could be considerable less depending upon what Coco does). TLJ could make that its opening weekend (which is what tracking is suggesting) and will certainly bring in enough money to have Disney pass WB by end of its first week.

Right now i would guess that Disney ends up roughly +300MM on WB on Dec 31.

 

JL seriously under performing killed any chance WB had of staying ahead. Everyone knew Disney would have a strong finish to the year with Coco and TLJ coming out.

I am glad it looks like JL is going to get to at least 250MM though. But once TLJ comes out I expect that to cut any late legs it might have.

 

Good Wednesday number for Coco. Reviews and audience scores (96% on RT right now and 80 on Metacritic with an A+ cinemascore) suggest it should have strong legs.

The Tuesday increases were sort of ridiculous this year, but even so the flat to small drop for JL on Wednesday is worrisome. Most movies had small increases, suggesting the larger Tuesday had a bigger affect, but it seems like most movies were able to have small increases on Wednesday, not a decline like JL.

 

 

 

[RamblinRed]

7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Movietickets 

 

2. JL - 18.8%

3. Wonder - 18.7%

 

and Coco is up to 27.4 so the gap is increasing there.