4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[JB33]

I refuse to consider May the summer kick-off. It's still Spring. Summer to me is June, July, August. 

 

DEADPOOL 2 will be my summer kick-off movie.

[fmpro]

32 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Bomb. Pitch Perfect franchise is dead now.

 

Pitch 3 is not a BOMB. Not even close

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Even if it goes lower to $600m, who cares.  Disney still literally prints money at that price.  

Disney will care because a poor OS performance for Solo combined with such a massive OS dropoff for TLJ shows that OS audiences are pretty fickle when it comes to the franchise. It just doesn't have the kind of brand loyalty with most of the world that it does DOM audiences. SW fatigue could quickly become a real thing with several OS markets given the current release strategy. 

If in a few years Disney has to depend on DOM for their SW film's success, then the annual release strategy becomes highly problematic. You need a huge OS allegiance for this kind of blockbuster release plan. 

[LonePirate]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

 

Pitch 3 is not a BOMB. Not even close

It may not be a bomb; but percentage wise, its drop from PP2 make it a bigger disappointment than TLJ.

[grey ghost]

DP or Logan were incredibly risky?

 

What about those movies would've alienated fans and general audiences?

 

 

Edited December 26, 2017 by grey ghost

[EmpireCity]

The bigger thing is this one of the most mind blowing investments in the history of cinema.  $4.06b and they have already made their money back and more.  They also are paying themselves in house for things like special effects and sound since they acquired ILM and Skywalker Sound and other film studios use them as well.  Merchandise, new theme parks, billions in licensed content, etc....

 

Disney is not worried on any level about how The Last Jedi is doing. 

[LonePirate]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

DP or Logan was incredibly risky?

 

What about those movies would've alienated fans and general audiences?

 

For some reason, the MRAs didn’t raise a fuss with how Deadpool celebrated Woman’s Day. You would have thought that would have sent them over the edge.

[mredman]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

3D without glasses

New aquatic cameras with extreme realism shots

Rumours about HDR too

 

And this is just what we know right now, probably they'll have a lot of more tricks to create buzz

That will require all new theater set ups and will cost a fortune for theaters around the globe.

19 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Bomb?Budget is $45M.

So it has to make at least 90-100 million to see some returns. I think it can get there

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Why in the world would they do that?  

 

Even if Star Wars becomes normal and not a gigantic event, they are still going to churn out $700m-$1.5b every time they make one.  If they can keep the budgets more in line of a $175m for the stories and $225m for the chapter, they are going to print money.  

 

 

I think Skywalker/Vader is the thing that brings in people to see Star Wars. A whole new story in SW universe is not a sure success

[EmmaPeel]

45 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

He’s 100% correct and if anything TPM sold as many tickets as TFA. A huge portion of tickets sold to TPM were kids tickets because it was a PG movie. The average ticket price for the year would be ABOVE the average paid to see TPM. TFA’s average ticket price wouldn’t be anything close to as low as the annual average with way more PLF and 3D showings in there compared to any other movie both by volume and percentage.

 

Its likely TPM sold about 90-95 million tickets and it’s likely TFA also sold 90-95 million. It’s even closer than his math. 

According to Box Office Mojo, TPM is 18th in number of tickets sold domestically with an estimated 90,312,100 tickets while TFA is 11th with an estimated 108,115,100 tickets sold. That's a difference of 17,803,000 tickets.

 

 

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

It may not be a bomb; but percentage wise, its drop from PP2 make it a bigger disappointment than TLJ.

Agree. Still not a Bomb though.

 

That is a term we use for movies that looses 10`s of millions of dollars..

This will make money

[Orestes]

We'll know for certain how Disney feels if RJs trilogy still moves forward or not.

[Brainbug]

To help put TLJ's run into perspective, heres a look at the Top DOM grossers adjusted per BOM:

 

25	The Godfather	Par.	$704,778,500	$134,966,411	1972^
26	Forrest Gump	Par.	$702,028,700	$330,252,182	1994^
27	Mary Poppins	Dis.	$698,163,600	$102,272,727	1964^
28	Grease	Par.	$687,334,900	$188,755,690	1978^
29	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$686,549,200	$623,357,910	2012
30	Thunderball	UA	$667,964,000	$63,595,658	1965
31	The Dark Knight	WB	$664,959,100	$534,858,444	2008^
32	The Jungle Book	Dis.	$657,961,600	$141,843,612	1967^
33	Sleeping Beauty	Dis.	$648,997,200	$51,600,000	1959^
34	Ghostbusters	Col.	$635,581,400	$242,212,467	1984^
35	Shrek 2	DW	$634,484,800	$441,226,247	2004
36	Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid	Fox	$630,081,600	$102,308,889	1969
37	Love Story	Par.	$625,083,400	$106,397,186	1970
38	Spider-Man	Sony	$620,498,800	$403,706,375	2002
39	Independence Day	Fox	$618,571,100	$306,169,268	1996^

 

 

Somewhere in there will TLJ land. Hardly a bad achievement for the 9th Film in a 40 year old franchise (Screw The Clone Wars, that doesnt count).

 

Before you bombard me with "But its a giant drop from TFA!", i always try to also look at the raw numbers of a movie from a neutral standpoint. And i refuse to call its run "bad", "disappointing" or "pathetic" if it ends up in the Top 40 DOM of all time adjusted, mediocre multiplier or not.

 

This is still such a massive performance.

[McNerdy]

I think part of the underperformance of TLJ may be because of TFA. After all was said and done, quite some people saw TFA as a rehash of the OT. Combine that with the mixed WOM TLJ is likely getting and you get an underperformance.

I do fear that if the rumors of Solo are true and the movie is bad, than Disney is in serious danger of damaging the SW brand in eyes of general audience, not unlike what recently happened with WB and DC..

[Lordmandeep]

I feel making endless star war movies will end up not working.

 

Not everything can be turned into the MCU

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

To help put TLJ's run into perspective, heres a look at the Top DOM grossers adjusted per BOM:

 

25	The Godfather	Par.	$704,778,500	$134,966,411	1972^
26	Forrest Gump	Par.	$702,028,700	$330,252,182	1994^
27	Mary Poppins	Dis.	$698,163,600	$102,272,727	1964^
28	Grease	Par.	$687,334,900	$188,755,690	1978^
29	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$686,549,200	$623,357,910	2012
30	Thunderball	UA	$667,964,000	$63,595,658	1965
31	The Dark Knight	WB	$664,959,100	$534,858,444	2008^
32	The Jungle Book	Dis.	$657,961,600	$141,843,612	1967^
33	Sleeping Beauty	Dis.	$648,997,200	$51,600,000	1959^
34	Ghostbusters	Col.	$635,581,400	$242,212,467	1984^
35	Shrek 2	DW	$634,484,800	$441,226,247	2004
36	Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid	Fox	$630,081,600	$102,308,889	1969
37	Love Story	Par.	$625,083,400	$106,397,186	1970
38	Spider-Man	Sony	$620,498,800	$403,706,375	2002
39	Independence Day	Fox	$618,571,100	$306,169,268	1996^

 

 

Somewhere in there will TLJ land. Hardly a bad achievement for the 9th Film in a 40 year old franchise (Screw The Clone Wars, that doesnt count).

 

Before you bombard me with "But its a giant drop from TFA!", i always try to also look at the raw numbers of a movie from a neutral standpoint. And i refuse to call its run "bad", "disappointing" or "pathetic" if it ends up in the Top 40 DOM of all time adjusted, mediocre multiplier or not.

 

This is still such a massive performance.

The problem is you're disregarding the fact that a massive performance for it was guaranteed. There was 0% chance of it dropping below like 550 DOM, even if it were considered the worst movie ever made with no marketing campaign. That's why saying it posted massive numbers is no big achievement in and of itself. There should have been no way it went below 650 if it had delivered, and now that's a possibility. 

[mredman]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

To help put TLJ's run into perspective, heres a look at the Top DOM grossers adjusted per BOM:

39	Independence Day	Fox	$618,571,100	$306,169,268	1996^

 

ID4 2 gotta be the biggest bomb of the century if not of all time

[EmmaPeel]

52 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Agreed, but I will point out the TFA outdid TPM by about $150M.

 

And really, though the reception towards TLJ is divisive, those are related more to the narrative and thematic decisions.  No one thinks it was a badly made and poorly acted film like AOTC.

 

EDIT:

 

And I will add that I think with time TLJ's virtues will come to the fore, and people will come to love it.

I don't think it's poorly made in terms of cinematography, music, or production design. But it's pacing is off, the editing is spotty, and the script is mediocre. Some people might come to love it eventually but not all. There are just too many real weaknesses in it that Empire Strikes Back, the movie everyone points to as it's analogue, didn't have. ESB's only real problem was people's expectations. Once people got over that, the movie could shine for what it was. ESB had few narrative, character, or pacing problems. TLJ has real story and flow issues that don't go away once you've made peace with the fact that it "doesn't go the way you think". If anything, my third viewing was the one I enjoyed the least.

Edited December 26, 2017 by EmmaPeel

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Orestes said:

We'll know for certain how Disney feels if RJs trilogy still moves forward or not.

This thread alone has proven how Star Wars vocal minority will act and how little they should pay attention to it. 

 

I literally saw the last few weeks the narrative go from "JJ Abrams is a fucking hack and Rian Johnson is awesome!! Looper!!" to "Rian Johnson is a fucking hack and JJ Abrams will totally be awesome and save Episode 9!!"

 

If that crazy group of people can swing from "Never let JJ Abrams touch Star Wars again!!" to "JJ Abrams totally gets Star Wars and Episode 9 will be awesome!!" then they aren't really worth listening to.  

[LinksterAC]

21 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The bigger thing is this one of the most mind blowing investments in the history of cinema.  $4.06b and they have already made their money back and more.  They also are paying themselves in house for things like special effects and sound since they acquired ILM and Skywalker Sound and other film studios use them as well.  Merchandise, new theme parks, billions in licensed content, etc....

 

Disney is not worried on any level about how The Last Jedi is doing. 

Great post.  

 

With Disney's investment paid back, I'm not surprised TLJ took some unexpected narrative turns.  I think the future of the property depends on its growth away from the Skywalker Saga.

 

That said, I hope we keep seeing stories that follow the main line of episodes.

Edited December 26, 2017 by LinksterAC

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

This thread alone has proven how Star Wars vocal minority will act and how little they should pay attention to it. 

 

I literally saw the last few weeks the narrative go from "JJ Abrams is a fucking hack and Rian Johnson is awesome!! Looper!!" to "Rian Johnson is a fucking hack and JJ Abrams will totally be awesome and save Episode 9!!"

 

If that crazy group of people can swing from "Never let JJ Abrams touch Star Wars again!!" to "JJ Abrams totally gets Star Wars and Episode 9 will be awesome!!" then they aren't really worth listening to.  

Lol, I'm not even sure the person you described there exists, and if they do it's not the majority of us that have issues with TLJ.