4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[grey ghost]

Get Doug Liman for a Transformers reboot.

 

Edge of Tomorrow was incredible 

[Blaze Heatnix]

8 minutes ago, James said:

What would happen to the forums if TLJ actually drops today instead of increasing? 

 

My nuclear gifs aren't working, but yeah, there would be explosions.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Blaze Heatnix

[mredman]

30 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

They are a takeover target for the likes of Disney or WB. Paramount has some very popular movies on home video like Godfather 1/2, Titanic, Ferris Bueller, Grease, etc. But their new product is garbage. 

They do have MI franchise too which is pretty huge and only getting better each year. I can not see Disney allowed to buy more movie studios then its basically a complete monopoly and they would also cannibalize their own movies because they would have no room to open them more apart each other. Dont think WB wanna buy it either. 

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Some said virtual 3D or glassless 3D

 

November is pretty good. Could see Thor3 legs with a $145M OW. The only thing it has to worry about is Bond and Frozen 2.

Are that technology even ready. And wouldn't theaters need massive upgrades in the billion dollar mark too ?

November is good if it opens close to october like Thor:Ragnarok did.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

TLJ- Monday ~$27,459,000 confirmed by The Numbers.

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

i think that's possible. thinking anything from -5% to +5%. last tue was -6%.

I think it's dropping.  If it were going to see an impressive bump, Christmas would have been the day.  

 

TLJ is on a fantastic run, but it looks like it's losing steam faster than the usual day-to-day boosts can compensate for.  Christmas had to be massive for me to believe there was some untapped well of demand waiting for it during the "real" holiday break.

[redfirebird2008]

So last week we were thinking 75-80 for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Now we are begging for 60 and that requires 18% increase today. Bummer. 

[MovieMan89]

It was mainly kid targeted movies that increased today in '06. Of course that was before discount Tuesday. TLJ has been all over the place too, nothing from '06 has been a good comp. 

[fmpro]

47 minutes ago, James said:

Not really. The only reason the drop is not sharper is that at this point in it's run TFA hadn't opened in China. Same with TLJ. TFA did 124m in China. TLJ will likely make around 24m... When all is said and done, the drop will be way worse OS than DOM. 

 

TLJ will make much more than 24 mill in China. Don`t make it worse than it is

[Taruseth]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Boxofficemojo kept that stupid Monday estimate and I thought it was for Tuesday cause 27.5M Monday was confirmed. Disregard. @Taruseth

Okay, just hoped this might come true.

But let's wait for RTH to give us some numbers (in 12 hours or so)

15 minutes ago, James said:

What would happen to the forums if TLJ actually drops today instead of increasing? 

I think it might drop. gave like 10+ pages ago a daily prediction where I have it dropping 5 or 6%.

Compact to both TFA and Rogue One it has the disadvantage of not being an off day for most.

[James]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

 

TLJ will make much more than 24 mill in China. Don`t make it worse than it is

All we know right now is that it has half of Dunkirk's presales with the same number of showtimes. Dunkirk made 50m total. SW is much more presales heavy than a WW2 movie. How is that not a realistic prediction?

[meriodejaneiro]

28 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

If SW8 ends up with 1.35B or 1.375B, it will have a worse retention rate among big franchises worldwide in 2017:

 

FF8 vs FF7: 1240 vs 1515 = 81% retention

DM3 vs Minions 1033 vs 1159 = 89% retention

SW8 vs SW7 1375 vs 2070 = 65% retention

 

All these franchises had both 2015 and 2017 releases. 

There are other franchises drops in 2017

 

POTC5 vs POTC4: 795 vs 1045 = 76% retention

Transformers 5 vs TF 4: 605 vs 1104 = 55% retention

Apes 3 (war) vs Apes 2 (down): 490 vs 710 = 69% retention

Lego 2 (batman) vs Lego (movie): 312 vs 469 = 66% retention (i don't even compare it with Ninjago 123M ww)

Alien Covenant vs Prometheus: 240 vs 403 = 59% retention

JL vs BvS: 647 vs 873 = 74% retention

[Taruseth]

43 minutes ago, mredman said:

what new technology are you hearing it has ?

i agree they should move it to a month with more off days. November is a shitty month

 

Right now it is dated to open on the first of November.

I disagree, second monday is veterans Day and it has Thanksgiving and November should be less crowded.

And I would say that Bond (likely 65-85 Mio Opening Weekend) is weaker competition compared to going up against SW IX and Wicked in it's second Weekend (Despite VIII drop, I think both together will be like 225+Mio big, I want to say 275+Mio, but the performance of VIII has me doubting that) and Frozen 2 basically opens just in it's fourth weekend and I think Frozen 2 might play more Christmas concentrated than their normal Thanksgiving-release. While if Wonder Woman 2 opens on 14th December it would open on the third weekend of Frozen 2.

And I think it has a certain advantage being the first big film of a season.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Taruseth

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

TLJ- Monday ~$27,459,000 confirmed by The Numbers.

shit, not even 27.5M which was just a rounded number. 

[a2k]

Quote

If SW8 ends up with 1.35B or 1.375B, it will have a worse retention rate among big franchises worldwide in 2017:

 

FF8 vs FF7: 1240 vs 1515 = 81% retention

DM3 vs Minions 1033 vs 1159 = 89% retention

SW8 vs SW7 1375 vs 2070 = 65% retention

 

All these franchises had both 2015 and 2017 releases. 

1 minute ago, meriodejaneiro said:

There are other franchises drops in 2017

 

POTC5 vs POTC4: 795 vs 1045 = 76% retention

Transformers 5 vs TF 4: 605 vs 1104 = 55% retention

Apes 3 (war) vs Apes 2 (down): 490 vs 710 = 69% retention

Lego 2 (batman) vs Lego (movie): 312 vs 469 = 66% retention (i don't even compare it with Ninjago 123M ww)

Alien Covenant vs Prometheus: 240 vs 403 = 59% retention

JL vs BvS: 647 vs 873 = 74% retention

Lego Bat was a spin-off so the low retention is understandable. It's like comparing RO with SW7/8. Mininons DM3 comp is also skewed but Minions didn't behave like a spin-off. It went nuts. It behaved like a third DM and DM3 is behaving like a fourth DM

 

From all this comps by you and @MinaTakla, only A:C and TF5 will show a worse drop than SW8. Understandable considering SW9 was a flash in the pan thing and numbers are huge but the disappointment is tangible.

[George Parr]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So last week we were thinking 75-80 for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Now we are begging for 60 and that requires 18% increase today. Bummer. 

To me, that was always aiming way too high anyway, but I didn't want to rule it out due to Star Wars occasionally dropping crazy numbers out of the blue. With the raises that have been standard for this particular schedule, last week would have needed to be much higher to get to 35m+ for Monday, much less approach 40m. It's only when you see Rogue One doing 32m on Monday that you think "this should be able to beat that number".

 

What made the lower end sound a bit more likely was the surprisingly good Sunday drop. -40% was not what the past had ever hinted at. So regular raises for Monday could have led to 35m+. But at the same time, the very reason why the Sunday worked better than expected may be the reason why the Monday isn't doing the same. Sometimes you get lucky, and a better drop than usual gets followed by a normal or even better increase, but other times the better drop undercuts the raise for the next day.

 

The latter would also kind of explain the lack of discount Tuesday effect, not only for TLJ but for TFA and Rogue One as well. If you look at all the big starts this year, they all dropped big time on Monday, then rose on Tuesday, but not nearly to the same extend to everything around it. Now, TLJ had a much better monday drop than all those starts, because there already was a small holiday effect in play, followed by a small decrease on Tuesday, alongside muted increases for everything else. The behaviour was pretty much the same, instead of dropping 70% on Monday and getting a 20-30% increase on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies), you get a lower Monday drop, followed by little change on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies). The whole scale simply shifted downwards because Monday already was inflated.

[a2k]

Looks like FSSM actuals

 

2017/12/22	1	$24,763,084	+38%	4,232	$5,851	$321,365,440	8
2017/12/23	1	$29,172,415	+18%	4,232	$6,893	$350,537,855	9
2017/12/24	1	$17,629,999	-40%	4,232	$4,166	$368,167,854	10
2017/12/25	1	$27,459,557	+56%	4,232	$6,489	$395,627,411	11

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/15	1	$220,009,584		4,232	$51,987	$220,009,584	1
2017/12/22	1	$71,565,498	-67%	4,232	$16,911	$368,167,854	2

 

[a2k]

Yeah actuals are trickling in (in black)

 

	Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Week
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$71,565,498	-67%	4,232	$16,911	$368,167,854	2
2	new	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$34,000,000		3,765	$9,031	$48,758,112	1
3	new	Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$19,928,525		3,447	$5,781	$19,928,525	1
4	new	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$8,600,000		3,006	$2,861	$13,198,731	1
5	(2)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$7,050,000	-47%	3,630	$1,942	$26,532,884	2
6	(3)	Coco	Walt Disney	$5,383,149	-46%	2,111	$2,550	$161,502,277	5
7	new	Downsizing	Paramount Pictures	$4,954,287		2,668	$1,857	$4,954,287	1
8	(16)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$3,891,945	+359%	806	$4,829	$6,745,022	5

[fmpro]

11 minutes ago, James said:

All we know right now is that it has half of Dunkirk's presales with the same number of showtimes. Dunkirk made 50m total. SW is much more presales heavy than a WW2 movie. How is that not a realistic prediction?

 

Presales this far out is not that reliable in China. I have been following it daily for years.. its not going to drop 80% from TFA..

[MrGlass2]

14 hours ago, The Greatest Rth said:

lets play

 

So... Did we find out what this means?

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, George Parr said:

To me, that was always aiming way too high anyway, but I didn't want to rule it out due to Star Wars occasionally dropping crazy numbers out of the blue. With the raises that have been standard for this particular schedule, last week would have needed to be much higher to get to 35m+ for Monday, much less approach 40m. It's only when you see Rogue One doing 32m on Monday that you think "this should be able to beat that number".

 

What made the lower end sound a bit more likely was the surprisingly good Sunday drop. -40% was not what the past had ever hinted at. So regular raises for Monday could have led to 35m+. But at the same time, the very reason why the Sunday worked better than expected may be the reason why the Monday isn't doing the same. Sometimes you get lucky, and a better drop than usual gets followed by a normal or even better increase, but other times the better drop undercuts the raise for the next day.

 

The latter would also kind of explain the lack of discount Tuesday effect, not only for TLJ but for TFA and Rogue One as well. If you look at all the big starts this year, they all dropped big time on Monday, then rose on Tuesday, but not nearly to the same extend to everything around it. Now, TLJ had a much better monday drop than all those starts, because there already was a small holiday effect in play, followed by a small decrease on Tuesday, alongside muted increases for everything else. The behaviour was pretty much the same, instead of dropping 70% on Monday and getting a 20-30% increase on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies), you get a lower Monday drop, followed by little change on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies). The whole scale simply shifted downwards because Monday already was inflated.

 

In 2006 a lot of movies jumped big time from Monday to Monday. Something like $35-38m seemed pretty reasonable in that context. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2006-12-25&p=.htm

 

Turns out Eragon’s 30% increase from Monday to Monday was most accurate for Last Jedi.