Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, trifle said:

triple budget for break even seems like a number people use when they want a film to seem unsuccessful.  I thought it was the low 2's for averaging, and reality was more income stream specific - not that we are ever likely to know that.

 

But yeah, it looks like Red Sparrow has started better than some were expecting, even in the US, so I'm just hoping it does well enough for a sequel, or two (there are two more books).

I honestly don't really know where's the break even point  I think 2x production budget is where the movie can be considered "not an absolute faceplant failure, even if it loses a little bit of money", but usually I see something higher - 3x production OR 2x production & marketing combined - as the "theatrically profitable" mark.

[KJsooner]

Really enjoyed Atomic Blonde. That room fight sequence was awesome.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, trifle said:

triple budget for break even seems like a number people use when they want a film to seem unsuccessful.  I thought it was the low 2's for averaging, and reality was more income stream specific - not that we are ever likely to know that.

 

But yeah, it looks like Red Sparrow has started better than some were expecting, even in the US, so I'm just hoping it does well enough for a sequel.

The avg is usually 2.5 the budget but that disregards the marketing budget which can make a huge difference . A $10m movie + $35m in P&A does not mean a $25m gross is a success.

 

For this, the P&A seems to have been at least as much as the $70m budget - if the Superbowl spot and the WW premieres are indicative.  So I'd say 2.5 is a reasonable number with 3x ($200m+ WW) more likely the target for a sequel.

Edited March 2, 2018 by TalismanRing

[trifle]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I honestly don't really know where's the break even point  I think 2x production budget is where the movie can be considered "not an absolute faceplant failure, even if it loses a little bit of money", but usually I see something higher - 3x production OR 2x production & marketing combined - as the "theatrically profitable" mark.

I was  thinking back to a discussion here that @Barnack wrote of the breakdown for profitability, but I am sure it varies.

[trifle]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

The avg is usually 2.5 the budget but that disregards the marketing budget which can make a huge difference . A $10m movie + $35m in P&A does not mean a $25m gross is a success.

 

For this, the P&A seems to have been at least as much as the $70m budget - if the Superbowl spot and the WW premieres are indicative. 

I said that somewhere and was told that ads BEFORE the superbowl were bargains next to most superbowl spots. However, there were tv buys, no question, at the Olympics as well.  That is a number that might be reported somewhere eventually, though.  The rest of the advertising was mostly Jen and Joel going on talk shows.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Because its fascist propaganda. It's openly racist and encourages more violence and carnage. It's everything wrong with our country distilled into a two hour movie. It preaches an evil ideology.

 

The first one is even worse, btw. I ain't one of the people that call it a classic or anything like that.

I always see pick up trucks with Trump stickers and Blue Lives Matter stickers with Punisher decals on them.

 

It seems out of dozens of superheroes the only one they put on a pedastal and obsessively worship is the white veteran (nothing wrong with that) who extrajudicially kills countless inner city thugs.

 

Yeah, nothing disturbing about that at all.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

From BOM:

 

Fox's Red Sparrow brought in $1.2 million from Thursday night previews last night. While preview screenings don't necessarily foreshadow a film's overall weekend performance, this could be an early indication of an opening that falls below expectation as it is shy of both the $1.8 million Ghost in the Shellbrought in before opening with $18.7 million and the $1.52 million for Atomic Blonde ahead of its $18.3 million debut.

MGM's Death Wish kicked off its opening weekend with $650,000 from Thursday 7 PM previews from ~2,250 screens. Again using comparisons from our preview below, this is slightly behind the $775k for The Foreigner, the $915k for American Assassin and the $870k for John Wick.

Damn, the sales on Fandango yesterday for DW fooled me.  It was selling at least 50% better than The Foreigner and The Commuter.  Maybe it didn't skew as old as the those films

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, trifle said:

I said that somewhere and was told that ads BEFORE the superbowl were bargains next to most superbowl spots. However, there were tv buys, no question, at the Olympics as well.  That is a number that might be reported somewhere eventually, though.  The rest of the advertising was mostly Jen and Joel going on talk shows.

They're bargains in that they're usually about 50% of the cost - that is still a $2.5m spot

[Jonwo]

25 minutes ago, cookie said:

Supposedly James L. Brooks did a lot of reshoots and reworking in post-production hence why it cost that much outside the salaries.

It's more surprising that Sony even agreed to such a budget, it's no shock that they ended his production deal because the movie bombed so hard.

[ThePhasmid]

Better than expected for Sparrow.

 

About as expected for Death Wish. A remake no one was clamoring for. While the original was somewhat controversial for its time, this just was really not a good time for this type of film. Taken had a full year to test the waters before its American release. The problem with Death Wish is that, for better or worse, it's innately American pulp cinema. I think it will perform much better in the home video/digital distribution market, though. That's where these type of exploitation films tend to thrive.

[Plain Old Tele]

I think you could've made a potentially very interesting DEATH WISH by playing around with the ethnicities of the lead and villains. Of course, a studio probably wouldn't want to bankroll it.

[Fancyarcher]

2 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

I think you could've made a potentially very interesting DEATH WISH by playing around with the ethnicities of the lead and villains. Of course, a studio probably wouldn't want to bankroll it.

You could also base it more off the original novel, which is about a man who turns into an extremist, after a traumatized event, he doesn't even kill someone until the end of the novel. Could make for an interesting "morality / law" film. 

[DAJK]

LOL my stats textbook just asked a question regarding ''The year's number 1 blockbuster movie is playing on 1257 screens across the country. Theatre owners conduct a survey... blah blah blah''

 

Damn must have been a real shitty year for blockbuster movies

[WrathOfHan]

More runtimes without credits and attachments for next week (Strangers still isn't up):

 

A Wrinkle in Time: 1:41. Attachments are MARY POPPINS and Christopher Robin

Hurricane Heist: 1:36. Attachments are Chappaquiddick and Gemini

[Alli]

Game Night made 1M in previews on its way to 17M weekend. I think RS is for sure making 20M

[MCKillswitch123]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

More runtimes without credits and attachments for next week (Strangers still isn't up):

 

A Wrinkle in Time: 1:41. Attachments are MARY POPPINS and Christopher Robin

Hurricane Heist: 1:36. Attachments are Chappaquiddick and Gemini

[ChrisTelclear]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Audience Score for Red Sparrow: 57%

 

Audience Score for Death Wish: 82%

Yeah, that 57 is up from 55 earlier, and it will probably continue to rise.

 

The 82 for DW is probably because only people who saw and liked the originals are going to see it, and it's basically delivering what they expected.  However, the Trump supporters are very active, they had inundated both her, and the movies, hashtag last night trying to rally people around Death Wish. These are people that during the election would go to online polls and flood them with votes supporting positions of Trump.  So it's entirely possible they are attacking the review sites, RT is the biggest, then IMDb.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

Game Night made 1M in previews on its way to 17M weekend. I think RS is for sure making 20M

One's a comedy - the other is not.  Normally, two different kinds of preview multipliers.

[grey ghost]

Real talk. I take my meds Friday night, so if I can just make it to Saturday morning I 
Probably won't get banned all weekend.

 

Having said that. Natalie Portman's buttcheeks got annihilated last weekend.

 

Wesley Snipes said it best, "always bet on black".

Edited March 2, 2018 by grey ghost

[misafeco]

1 hour ago, Telehilation said:

 

I don't think it's expensive to shoot there, comparatively. Second sentence seems likely.

Even with salaries growing rapidly, it's much cheaper to shoot a movie here than anywhere in Western Europe. Also the government is quite generous towards filming companies, they barely have to pay taxes. It didn't really help Blade Runner with it's 150M budget either.