Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[Chewy]

19 minutes ago, Alli said:

20M for Red Sparrow. Good. Every A-list should open an original movie with at least 20M. Status confirmed for JLAw

 

It's a book adaptation

[Chewy]

8 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Last year, the Oscars were a bore and received poor ratings.  La La Land was front and center.  Mostly all the movies performed better on Sunday than Friday.  Even Fifty Shades Darker dropped under 50%.  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-02-26&p=.htm

 

This year, the wealth has been spread out amongst all nominees and I believe every category except for Animated Feature is up for grabs.  I expect Black Panther to drop 33% this time, not 25%.  Also, look for Fifty Shades Freed to drop about 50% and for all drops to be similar to the year before (Mad Max vs Revenant vs Big Short vs Spotlight)  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2016-02-26&p=.htm

 

Counter-point: no one cares about the oscars

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Update 

 

60-63 for Panther 

20 for Sparrow 

12 for Death Wish 

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/jennifer-lawrence-red-sparrow-black-panther-death-wish-bruce-willis-box-office-1202308124/

Last weekend they had BP at 92 m for its 2nd weekend during the first update.

 

So I expect those numbers to go up by at least 3 million by Sunday.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't expect ratings to decrease this year solely because the pressure is on Warren and Faye to announce the correct Picture winner 

"The Oscar goes to...Darkest Hour!"

"It says Gary Oldman!"

"WHAT?!"

[Jake Gittes]

19 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

Russia it opens on May 31st

Was April 26 just recently. A complete anomaly for a major Hollywood release to be released three months later than in the States, only really happens with awards contenders. It'll 100% be available to pirate by that point too. I wonder if they're low-key trying to purge it from the schedule entirely in the end. 

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

It's a book adaptation

I don't think the book is well known/successful. Might as well call it an original movie

[Plain Old Tele]

12 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Last year, the Oscars were a bore....

 

wait WHAT

[dxmatrixdt]

3 minutes ago, Telehilation said:

 

wait WHAT

IMO.... at least on paper before the show started.  All the results seemed to be a lock.  The upsets made it worthwhile

Edited March 2, 2018 by Matrix4You

[Chewy]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

I don't think the book is well known/successful. Might as well call it an original movie

 

It's a best-seller, not that that really means much in a larger cultural sense

 

I just see anything that's not a sequel or #brand referred to as original these days, which I find odd but I guess that's one interpretation

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

IMO.... at least on paper before the show started.  All the results seemed to be a lock.  The upsets made it worthwhile

 

Well... yes. But the show's the show, not the predictions.

[NoLegMan]

I think BP will hit 70 million.

[The Panda]

Given Disney’s trend of not fudging and BP’s trend to rise throughout the weekend, 69m 3rd Weekend is happening.

[AJG]

5 hours ago, Alli said:

http://deadline.com/2018/03/jennifer-lawrence-red-sparrow-black-panther-death-wish-bruce-willis-box-office-1202308124/

 

Red Sparrow made $1.2M from 2,775 locations yesterday from showtimes starting at 7pm.

 

FLOP.

 

FAILURE.

[Chewy]

1 minute ago, The Mad Panda said:

Given Disney’s trend of not fudging and BP’s trend to rise throughout the weekend, 69m 3rd Weekend is happening.

 

FOLKS,

[ThiagoMaia]

35 minutes ago, cookie said:

So if it follows past Deadline trajectory BP is going to climb to a ludicrous number like $80m or something.

"Cut back to a week ago, and we saw T’Challa lower in the $90M-plus range, and then he just blew up. That’s apt to happen again as many believe he’s headed to $500M by Sunday. Black Panther is eyeing $16M today, -44%."

 

Does this mean they didn't change at all their method for calculating the weekend based on last weekend's pattern?

[ecstasy]

 

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

"Cut back to a week ago, and we saw T’Challa lower in the $90M-plus range, and then he just blew up. That’s apt to happen again as many believe he’s headed to $500M by Sunday. Black Panther is eyeing $16M today, -44%."

 

Does this mean they didn't change at all their method for calculating the weekend based on last weekend's pattern?

East Coast (at least from VA up to Massachusetts) is a windy weather mess today, which could be working for or against the movie, so they might be taking the middle road again...

[Dandeak2000]

46 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Was April 26 just recently. A complete anomaly for a major Hollywood release to be released three months later than in the States, only really happens with awards contenders. It'll 100% be available to pirate by that point too. I wonder if they're low-key trying to purge it from the schedule entirely in the end. 

Yeah, I got that from IMDb. But I don't think they should waste their money there to be honest, it will likely not do well in Russia if it did open.

[Fancyarcher]

26 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

East Coast (at least from VA up to Massachusetts) is a windy weather mess today, which could be working for or against the movie, so they might be taking the middle road again...

Here in New England today, it's really blustery outside. Not sure it'll affect box office business, but it's noticeable. It's supposed to be like that all weekend as well.  

Edited March 2, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[Amazing Amy]

1 hour ago, Matrix4You said:

Last year, the Oscars were a bore and received poor ratings.  La La Land was front and center.  Mostly all the movies performed better on Sunday than Friday.  Even Fifty Shades Darker dropped under 50%.  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-02-26&p=.htm

 

This year, the wealth has been spread out amongst all nominees and I believe every category except for Animated Feature is up for grabs.  I expect Black Panther to drop 33% this time, not 25%.  Also, look for Fifty Shades Freed to drop about 50% and for all drops to be similar to the year before (Mad Max vs Revenant vs Big Short vs Spotlight)  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2016-02-26&p=.htm

Black people don’t watch the Oscars like that.