INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[KJsooner]

On 4/28/2018 at 9:13 PM, That I'M BANNED Guy said:

I do find it funny how many people are crucifying me for trying to be somewhat realistic lol.  but to appease you guys I'll give it a -28% drop instead

 

$105.9M

$79.5M

$57.2M

 

$242.6M

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Empire also says that he is not good with calculations sometimes.  When him and RTH give us numbers, there is a lot of math involved.  When I met up with RTH during TIFF last year, we had lunch on a patio and he took out his laptop and did the math for The Hitman's Bodyguard right in front of me.  There's math and extrapolation.  And that was for a film making less than a million for the day.  Picture what's involved for a film with 60-70 million.  

 

So RTH is a math professor and Empire is the student who wants to be as good as his teacher but just cant reach him? 

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Empire also says that he is not good with calculations sometimes.  When him and RTH give us numbers, there is a lot of math involved.  When I met up with RTH during TIFF last year, we had lunch on a patio and he took out his laptop and did the math for The Hitman's Bodyguard right in front of me.  There's math and extrapolation.  And that was for a film making less than a million for the day.  Picture what's involved for a film with 60-70 million.  

 

I pretty much assumed once all the numbers are in it might account for 85-90% reporting locations and you have to extrapolate the remaining percentage yourself. Extrapolating midday probably much harder when you have different locations across a big country at different time zones. Is this about correct? 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by eXtacy

[NGGKroze]

Lol with the actual numbers come in the can come close to my final prediction (267M). Insane numbers and Godlike movie

[sfran43]

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

So RTH is a math professor and Empire is the student who wants to be as good as his teacher but just cant reach him? 

 

Yes, RTH is a zen master plain and simple. For 2012 Avengers, media was reporting $65m with a chance of $70m Friday. RTH comes out of nowhere and says "more like $80m." Few hours later we get the confirmation of it, lol.

[MCKillswitch123]

55 minutes ago, Kraken said:

 

The internet is filled narraties, tho. For every Ehrlich there were three guys crying about ruined childhoods because the story didn't have familiar beats. And I also find annoying that kind of thinking that gives rules to art, because a film being good only comes to down to execution and what works for one might not work for other.

 

It's not about the story. It's about how that story is told. (And IW told its in a very smart way, btw)

Can't say anything apart from I absolutely agree.

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, eXtacy said:

 

I pretty much assumed once all the numbers are in it might account for 85-90% reporting locations and you have to extrapolate the remaining percentage yourself. Extrapolating midday probably much harder when you have different locations across a big country at different time zones. Is this about correct? 

 

 

 

I think so.  I'm not privy to the software that he uses and I didn't really try to look at the raw data.  I just sat in awe as RTH wrote numbers on a cocktail napkin in front of me and said, "It looks like it will do XXX for Wednesday."  But yea, it's probably something like you just said.  

[Michael Seng Wah]

70mil Sunday please.

 

Forget that Labour Day falls in September for US.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Michael Seng Wah

[The Futurist]

Poor Spielberg, reduced to a random franchise saved by China.

How the mighty has fallen.

 

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes, RTH is a zen master plain and simple. For 2012 Avengers, media was reporting $65m with a chance of $70m Friday. RTH comes out of nowhere and says "more like $80m." Few hours later we get the confirmation of it, lol.

The day a legend is born.

 

Or more like the day an Asgardian descended on Earth (but like, he descended gracefully and not faceplanted like Thor did lol)

[CoolioD1]

solid opening weekend. glad disney finally bagged a win. hopefully it's good enough for us to get a sequel.

[jaybox]

Forget about the 258-263 million. I'm O.O at the 640 million worldwide opening. GOT. DAMN. I think The Lion King actually could outright break the opening weekend record next year (at worst challenge it), but that worldwide opening? What movie has a chance in hell at that in the near future? Avatar 2? o.O The next Furious movie has no shot due to diminishing US returns. Star Wars Episode 9 won't do it either.

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

I don't know why this box is here, i tried to get rid of it to no avail...:(

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by jaybox

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

I assume Monday’s drop will be lighter due to Labour Day on Tuesday?

 

Labor Day is early September for USA/Canada. But I would think for other countries you are correct about some boost for Monday/Tuesday.

[Cap]

6 minutes ago, NGGKroze said:

Lol with the actual numbers come in the can come close to my final prediction (267M). Insane numbers and Godlike movie

My debry would really like 260M

[John Harris]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Empire also says that he is not good with calculations sometimes.  When him and RTH give us numbers, there is a lot of math involved.  When I met up with RTH during TIFF last year, we had lunch on a patio and he took out his laptop and did the math for The Hitman's Bodyguard right in front of me.  There's math and extrapolation.  And that was for a film making less than a million for the day.  Picture what's involved for a film with 60-70 million.  

Hey, are you sure The Wizard is OK with you revealing the magic that goes on behind the curtain???

[LonePirate]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A lot of you aren't considering how barren the market is over the next couple of weeks:

 

Overboard: A Eugenio Derbez movie targeting a Hispanic audience that will open in the low to mid teens and collapse afterwards (will it even beat Latin Lover's OW with more theaters?).

Tully: A critically acclaimed comedy that Focus is dumping for some reason. It'll open around 4-5M, increase the following weekend, and then go away.

Bad Samaritan: Literally nobody knows what this is!

 

Life of the Party: Although this is Melissa McCarthy's first movie since Ghostbusters, can it cross 20M on OW? A Snatched-like opening with better legs wouldn't surprise me, but it's still not major competition to IW given the target audience is older women.

Breaking In: It'll probably open in the mid-teens and collapse afterwards. Again, this is targeting older women.

 

I continue to be puzzled by the Overboard marketing given how Faris is the star of a hit TV show in the US and is seemingly the star of this movie. She is certainly more well known than Derbez is to most US audiences. I have no idea if the film is any good but the marketing is very weird.

 

It’s hard to say for sure if Tully is being dumped as it is being positioned for its best possible release date outside of the awards season. The strong reviews so far make the release date even more puzzling since it could be an awards contender. That being said, it is about the best counter programming possible to the AIW juggernaut. It just may not play in enough theaters to make any impression apart from the tiniest of blips.

 

As for Life of the Party, its trailers have played well in front of A Quiet Place, I Feel Pretty and AIW which have had three different audiences. Yet it faces direct competition from IFP and Tully despite its good release date. Will people be ready for a wide comedy in two weekends? I have no idea; but the bar is not spectacularly high for it to be the biggest comedy OW of the year.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, jaybox said:

Forget about the 258-263 million. I'm O.O at the 640 million worldwide opening. GOT. DAMN. I think The Lion King actually could outright break the opening weekend record next year (at worst challenge it), but that worldwide opening? What movie has a chance in hell at that in the near future? Avatar 2? o.O The next Furious movie has no shot due to diminishing US returns. Star Wars Episode 9 won't do it either.

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

if Avatar 2 get's that DOM opening $4b is in play

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, jaybox said:

Forget about the 258-263 million. I'm O.O at the 640 million worldwide opening. GOT. DAMN. I think The Lion King actually could outright break the opening weekend record next year (at worst challenge it), but that worldwide opening? What movie has a chance in hell at that in the near future? Avatar 2? o.O The next Furious movie has no shot due to diminishing US returns. Star Wars Episode 9 won't do it either.

 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

The wildest thing is even if some movie opened globally WITH China, I don't think they could beat this. Star Wars is irrelevant there. Fast and Furious is irrelevant here. Maybe Avatar 2? But that seems more likely to leg its way up like the first one.