Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[Zakiyyah6]

I'll never doubt James Cameron at the box office but as a filmmaker he has gone stale to me. I'm fine with simple stories that add nothing new but I didn't feel like a lick of Avatar was genuine. I don't think it has heart, intelligence, decent characters or real excitement. It's a beautiful bore of a tech demo. It's as cold as a real life Terminator would be. Yes, I know the gimmicky sequel will make a ton of money and I don't resent that. I just find it funny how Avatar had no impact as an actual film. 3D was the only thing that filmmakers took from it. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Is the 2nd weekend at around $110-120M, good enough? I hope so.

 

And is Titanic’s DOM-gross the main target for IW to beat? Since past OW-record breakers in this decade (except TFA), couldn’t beat it despite their best.

[vc2002]

IronJimbo's favorite soundtrack now.

 

 

[a2k]

within mcu,

- gotg2 2.66x and ca2 with 2.74x are highest sequel multis. that would give aiw 685-706.

- looking at three-quels thor3's 2.57x is the highest (and in november) which gives aiw 662.

- looking at big opening sequels, ca3, im3 and ta2 range from 2.29-2.40x and give 590-620.

 

to expect 685-706 was being optimstic imo. 750-800 was 2.9-3.1x, par with TA's 3.0x as a non-sequel in a different preview-era (18.7 previews in a 207.4 ow. even BP had bigger previews than 18.7 this year with smaller ow than 207.4)

 

640-660 looks like the range atm.

Edited May 6, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[Krissykins]

28% Sunday drop gets it to $111.8m. 0.1m more than BP. 

 

But Black Panther only fell 25% on its second Sunday, so IW could do the same I suppose, for $112.7m. 

[Iron Raf]

5 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Is the 2nd weekend at around $110-120M, good enough? I hope so.

 

And is Titanic’s DOM-gross the main target for IW to beat? Since past OW-record breakers in this decade (except TFA), couldn’t beat it despite their best.

 

Target should be 2B WW. 5-10M less than predicted this weekend isn’t changing that. 

[IronJimbo]

15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'll never doubt James Cameron at the box office but as a filmmaker he has gone stale to me. I'm fine with simple stories that add nothing new but I didn't feel like a lick of Avatar was genuine. I don't think it has heart, intelligence, decent characters or real excitement. It's a beautiful bore of a tech demo. It's as cold as a real life Terminator would be. Yes, I know the gimmicky sequel will make a ton of money and I don't resent that. I just find it funny how Avatar had no impact as an actual film. 3D was the only thing that filmmakers took from it. 

It's ok for you guys to retroactively hate on Avatar (opinions) but that final line is patently false.

 

Go watch a mini clip of Brolin doing performance capture (re-named from motion capture because of Jim by the way). You'll notice he's wearing a headrig to capture his faces performance. Thats a technology Avatar made.

 

The way CGI heavy films are made was also revloutionised by Avatar, on my phone and hate typing on it so google it yourself.

Edited May 6, 2018 by IronJimbo

[Cooper Legion]

RIP the back to back 700M dream. And the 3 consecutive entries in all-time adjusted dream.  

 

Will we have to settle for back to back MCU releases in the DOM top 4 now ? Top 5? Will Avengers 4 even be able to pass TFA once it gets the DH2 bump?   

 

With a 2nd Saturday like this I’m even starting to fear the MCU’s ability to make more domestically in 2018 than JW made WW

[DeeCee]

Discuss your favourite shows on network or cable TV. 

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/17-tv-shows/

 

Discuss your favourite films or series on a streaming service (Netflix, Amazon, Hulu etc). 

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/177-direct-to-vod/

[PPZVGOS]

53 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

This all feels a little more normal. Was only one way it could go after opening so huge. 

 

Unlike Black Panther, IW requires you to have seen multiple other MCU movies. So in that sense, its audience (albeit colossally massive) does have a limit. Expanding beyond that base (which BP was able to do) was never going to happen. 

 

$650 million would be incredible for the movie. 

This is so absolutely correct and was going to post something like this right now. 

 

I totally realized this once I watched AIW for a second time this past Friday. Whereas first time I saw it was on the very opening night, the audience in the theater seemed to get almost every single reference and in-joke. During the second time, when the audience were mostly made up of "normies" most of the references and in-jokes seemed to be falling flat. 

 

The "problem" that the MCU is now facing, is that after 19 movies and counting the films are beginning to become exceedingly self-referential and this runs the risk of confusing and/or alienating the GA. 

 

This is why at some stage, the old guard of the MCU need to make way for a new batch of leading characters. But even in this case, will it be possible to create a clean slate for a new wave of MCU interrelated films and franchises? That remains to be seen. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by PPZVGOS

[MCKillswitch123]

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Edited May 6, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[stephanos13]

7 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:

Damn I was looking at Disney's 2019 slate. It's crazy. I can legitimately see 7 films that could over $1 billion worldwide and 3 of those over $2 billion. 

Avengers 4, Lion King. Which is other one? and don't tell me Star Wars 9.

[Premium George]

Ethan was right.  

I need sunday drop to be great, so, this reaches $115m for personal reasons.

[MCKillswitch123]

 

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

RIP the back to back 700M dream. And the 3 consecutive entries in all-time adjusted dream.  

 

Will we have to settle for back to back MCU releases in the DOM top 4 now ? Top 5? Will Avengers 4 even be able to pass TFA once it gets the DH2 bump?   

 

With a 2nd Saturday like this I’m even starting to fear the MCU’s ability to make more domestically in 2018 than JW made WW

First world problems, madames and males.

[YLF]

I wonder how much moviepass users not being able to see it more than once affected this? For BP seeing it an unlimited amount of times was still available.

[Cooper Legion]

I guess there was no hype after all  

 

props @Ethan Hunt  

 

Spoiler

 

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, YLF said:

I wonder how much moviepass users not being able to see it more than once affected this? For BP seeing it an unlimited amount of times was still available.

I’ve seen a lot of reports of people wanting to use MoviePass to repeat view Infinity War, so they buy a ticket for a different movie and then just go into a screen for IW. That would be money which is really being spent to see Infinity War, getting officially counted for other movies instead.    

 

So, we should probably mentally shift about 10% of every other movie’s gross this weekend to Infinity War, just to be safe 

[WrathOfHan]

I refuse to let Ethan win.

[Cooper Legion]

For some perspective on just how bad things look with a drop like this, the average of the 3 MCU movies this year will barely be enough to make the DOM top 10 (please don’t fail me now Paul Rudd).

Edited May 6, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[GraceRandolph]

Everyone that predicted 2 billion WW and 700M+ DOM right now: