HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[Legion Again]

So I just checked every past MCU May release (IM1, IM2, Thor, Avengers, IM3, AoU, CW, GotG2) and their internal Memorial weekend behavior is extremely consistent — 45-55% increase Sat, 0-10% decrease Sun, Mon is worth 2/7th of the 3-day.      

 

Then the amount they add after Mon is 2-2.75x the 3-day.  

 

Using IW’s 4.25 Fri, we get a Sat between 6.16 and 6.59, then a Sun between 5.55 and 6.59, for a 3-day of 15.96-17.42. 4-day of 20.5-22.4. Anything outside those numbers would constitute exceptional behavior.         

 

The pessimistic weekend leads leads to a total of 605+20.5+16*[2,2.75]= 657 to 670

 

The optimistic weekend leads leads to a total of 605+22.4+17.4*[2,2.75]=662 to 675         

 

So unfortunately it looks like we’re landing between Titanic and TDK adjusted, unless IW can really surprise.

[water]

1 minute ago, GirafficPark said:

How did he? They were pretty much in line with expectations for me. The only one not so obvious was Poe, but only because in TFA he wasnt even 2D, so anything was possible.

rey's main thing in tfa is looking for belonging and family. she finds in in han and finn. kylo kills one of them and almost kills the other, not to mention tortures her. in the next movie she randomly becomes sympathetic to him like literally 2 days later. it was completely out of character.

 

finn was the principal character of tfa in terms of having the most lines and being the one to drive the plot. i consider him and rey equal co-leads, but his actions move the story forward, not hers. in tlj he's relegated to a sideplot that doesn't follow up on his position as a stormtrooper who defected at all. 

 

etc.

[GraceRandolph]

3 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

SW isnt as popular internationally as Marvel is.

Going by that logic Star Wars is more  popular domestically (not anymore) so they should more than make up for it. Besides TFA did 1B billion internationally. The international audience was clearly here for it. It’s no ones fault that they couldn’t maintain the momentum. 

 

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

+20-25% is likely. Nearer 20% I suspect. It will increase because its the last in the trilogy and (for some reason) people will trust Abrams.

My prediction (3 weeks ago) for EP9 was $1.6B so about the same. But I don't think it might go quite is high because I do think LA and Asia totaly rejected it right now. Like I said I could see Dom, Europe and Australia turn op for this movie but is it enough for a 20% increase. 

[harrycaul]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Versus the non pointless talk that could ever occur on a box office message board, I fully get what you say, when even studio get it wrong, imagine people that does not even have the real budget numbers and the retention rate contract, talent contract, etc... info like us, Deadline people can get it wrong by more than 100%, imagine us.

 

But it is not like we could engage in a non pointless speculation about something else regarding movies....

 

Well, we can talk about performance. We have hard numbers there.

 

Though I'm not a fan of all-time ranks...I'll spare us all my long winded reasons.  

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fact: GOT is far from the best show on TV.

FACT: The movie that gif im about to use a response to this quote is from did not make BOT’s top 100

 

Edited May 26, 2018 by Pandamia!

[AJG]

171 pages... 

 

and we haven't ranked the MCU once.

[Rebeccas]

4 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

This place is often wrong. This place isnt the only box office forum.

Yeah but even predictions by BO.com were in the $500m area for a long time. 

[That One Girl]

Just now, AJG said:

171 pages... 

 

and we haven't ranked the MCU once.

 

1. The New Mutants

[GirafficPark]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

171 pages... 

 

and we haven't ranked the MCU once.

Can we rank SW? Has that been done yet for the 500th time?

Edited May 26, 2018 by GirafficPark

[filmlover]

Just now, AJG said:

171 pages... 

 

and we haven't ranked the MCU once.

People are too busy freaking out over Solo's numbers and the so-called death of Star Wars and blah blah blah to bother about that.

 

Speaking of which, I'm about to head out and see Solo (FYI: the theater I'm going to has been extremely busy all day). Enjoy your continuous arguments, everyone, I guess.

[That One Girl]

1. Last Jedi

2. Rogue One

3. Force Awakens

4. Solo

[AJG]

1 minute ago, GirafficPark said:

Can we rank SW?

I guess.

[IceFire9yt]

4 minutes ago, water said:

rey's main thing in tfa is looking for belonging and family. she finds in in han and finn. kylo kills one of them and almost kills the other, not to mention tortures her. in the next movie she randomly becomes sympathetic to him like literally 2 days later. it was completely out of character.

 

finn was the principal character of tfa in terms of having the most lines and being the one to drive the plot. i consider him and rey equal co-leads, but his actions move the story forward, not hers. in tlj he's relegated to a sideplot that doesn't follow up on his position as a stormtrooper who defected at all. 

 

etc.

I'm out of reactions, but I couldn't agree more.  The sidelining of Finn was my #1 problem with TLJ.  I loved him in TFA, but he seemed like a side character in TLJ.

[water]

i think episode 9 could go either way. tlj damaged the st beyond repair imo, even without my issues with the characters it's just extremely weird for something that's supposed to be the middle installment of a trilogy. there's no cliffhanger leading to the next one and the whole trilogy so far has taken place over a week, in a series known for its sprawling decades-long story. so it could drop.

 

but jj did say he's following up on episode 7 and how he wanted to continue that, he's clearly mad that rian messed with his baby, so if he can recapture what made audiences love tfa and what they missed in tlj, i could see it bouncing back and increasing from tlj. i'm also extra excited and optimistic because the main complaint people had about tfa was that it was too derivative, and there was also an interview saying they're being mindful of that this time and incorporating the pt and whatnot, so tbh i could see episode 9 being the perfect storm of bringing back what we loved about tfa-- the heart of the story being the new characters he devised-- while also making it more of its own unique thing, which we yearned for the first time. this will especially help overseas by being more epic and flashy scifi

Edited May 26, 2018 by water

[GraceRandolph]

9 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

Clone Wars took $35M total..

 

No one sane expected IW to be below Ultron.

Clone Wars. As in the animated movie? Talk about grasping for straws LOL.  But whatever helps you cope with the fact that Star Wars is a declining franchise.

[AJG]

Just now, That One Guy said:

1. Last Jedi

2. Rogue One

3. Force Awakens

4. Solo

 

ESB

TFA

ANH

ROTJ

SOLO

TLJ

RO

ROTS

TPM

 

 

AOTC

 

 

[water]

2 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

I'm out of reactions, but I couldn't agree more.  The sidelining of Finn was my #1 problem with TLJ.  I loved him in TFA, but he seemed like a side character in TLJ.

nice to see someone else who gets it

[GirafficPark]

Just now, GraceRandolph said:

Clone Wars. As in the animated movie? Talk about grasping for straws LOL.  But whatever helps you cope with the fact that Star Wars is a declining franchise.

I actually dont care, SW isnt really that big a deal for me. Im simply interested in the numbers. The justifications im seeing here are very weak thats all. The notion that TLJ is responsible for the 'death' of SW is laughable. My opinions are based on historical data, most others seem to be based on personal opinions.

[harrycaul]

I expect IX to go down, at least overseas. That's mostly because os seems to have lost interest in the franchise and I lack the imagination to see how they can earn a significant part of that back in one film.

 

Domestic it could hold or increase, if it's done well.