HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

What are you expecting Solo to make DOM out of curiosity? To me a 35m OD indicates about an 80m OW following typical opener patterns of this weekend. 2.4-2.6x multis are typical for openers this weekend as well, so I'd guess it's looking at 200 or so. I'm running on the reports about a 250m budget, if it's really over 300m then I think that would be catastrophic for it. 

 

Really no idea, it is quite the new thing with little precedent, a star wars opening like this, it is a rewatch heavy franchise with usually great legs, if it OW is small legs could be surprising, one of the issue is that it played quite old as of now and the movie has a lot of moment for kids and they will get on break soon.... I could see a 90m with a 2.75 occurring for a 240m run in some best case scenario, big movies openning next week and next next week wil make it really hard for anything special to occur.

 

Star Wars is so much more than the movies direct revenues (thus the 2b + 2b dilution buy), that it could have some still potential terrible news coming from Solo international result, even if the budget was 190m budget instead of 250 that 60m difference is just 1.5% of the franchise buying price after all , let see with a larger sample size than 1 movie obviously, maybe Episode 9 bring again an over 1.3b box office monster is well liked, Battlefront fix itself, etc... and all become good.

 

Solo has some major issue and one, that Solo is not much of a character, it is a bit of empty trope completely filled by Harrison Ford, it does not look like him nor sound like much, it become a movie not really about him, but still filled with fan service origin moment.

 

Really curious how a connected to nothing would play instead.

[James]

I liked TLJ more than most, but the continuity is obviously a problem and it's all on Disney. When TFA opened it was clear they were borrowing some elements from the SW expanded universe, specifically the Legacy of the Force series. IF they would have followed that, which was so easy to do, they would have ended up with an amazing series of movies. Instead, they did a 180 with TJL. As I said, I liked TLJ, but the obvious rupture from TFA makes it hard to actually think of it as a series. And despite liking TLJ more than TFA, I have no interest in EP9. The new characters are simply not interesting enough.

Edited May 26, 2018 by James

[a2k]

TFA, RO, TLJ jumped 10%, 10%, 7% on Sat from true Friday respectively. That would be inadequate for SOLO if it wants 85+ over FSS.

 

20-21% bump needed followed by a Sun drop not higher than 6-8%,

 

14.1

21.5 [35.6 od]

26.0 (+21%)

24.1 (-7.5%)

= 85.7 FSS

 

19.5 (-19%)

= 105.2 FSSM

Edited May 26, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[MCKillswitch123]

Did we really spend infinite pages arguing SW vs MCU and whether or not is SW doomed or whatever? Folks, if Jurassic Park III couldn't murderrape the JP franchise to death and left the door open for Jurassic World to show up and blow the expectations out the water, SW is sure as shit not dead as a result of Solo. Plain and simple. If anything, TLJ was the one that put Ep. IX on track to either drop or only marginally increase DOM, and absolutely a drop OS from TLJ too, but it will still clear 1B WW nonetheless. Sure, TLJ hurt the brand and interest on Ep. IX has been diminshed as a result of what goes down in that movie, but the brand is not in its deathbed as a result. Just needs some time off to both rest and put focus on a solid plan going forward.

Edited May 26, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[GirafficPark]

1 minute ago, James said:

I liked TLJ more than most, but the continuity is obviously a problem and it's all on Disney. When TFA opened it was clear they were borrowing some elements from the SW expended universe, specifically the Legacy of the Force series. IF they would have followed that, which was so easy to do, they would have ended up with an amazing series of movies. Instead, they did a 180 with TJL. As I said, I liked TLJ, but the obvious rupture from TFA makes it hard to actually think of it as a series. And despite liking TLJ more than TFA, I have no interest in EP9. The new characters are simply not interesting enough.

I feel very much like that, but i didnt need TLJ to reach that conclusion. The trilogy was doomed immediately for me.

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, A2k Raptor said:

TFA, RO, TLJ jumped 10%, 10%, 7% on Sat from true Friday respectively. That would be inadequate for SOLO if it wants 85+ over FSS.

 

20-21% bump needed followed by a Sun drop not higher than 6-7.5%,

 

14.1

21.5 [35.6 od]

26.0 (+21%)

24.1 (-7.5%)

= 85.7 FSS

 

19.5 (-19%)

= 105.2 FSSM

Hopefully I'm wrong but based on how matinees look from perusing Fandango, I'm really not expecting it to jump much more than 10% today, which is going to make $100M for the 4-day extremely difficult.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, harrycaul said:

Sure. Some things are more pointless than others, is all.

You are fully right, I will give you that.

 

I will say it differently, it is all pointless and fully inaccurate, I love doing it and I have no problem with people doing it, my only issue if is someone things he known and say with authority this made money, this lost money specially if they break it down for who that the case (saying the studio lost money for example).. except for the really obvious case. Or that think that a guy blogging for forbes or deadline would know the actual and use them as a source of perfect authority.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Barnack

[Mekanos]

What are people thinking for OW multi on this thing? 2.4-2.5x?

[water]

21 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

There is a difference between being not a good thing, and being unrealistic. Mischaracterised implies to me that it was unexpected, not that it was unpleasant.

i think it was both. like i said i'm not interested in expending energy explaining what i and many others consider obvious.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Hopefully I'm wrong but based on how matinees look from perusing Fandango, I'm really not expecting it to jump much more than 10% today, which is going to make $100M for the 4-day extremely difficult.

10% would be right in line with what most of these MD openers do on Sat. That would give 78-80 for the 3 day. 

[Sam]

10 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

TFA, RO, TLJ jumped 10%, 10%, 7% on Sat from true Friday respectively. That would be inadequate for SOLO if it wants 85+ over FSS.

 

20-21% bump needed followed by a Sun drop not higher than 6-8%,

 

14.1

21.5 [35.6 od]

26.0 (+21%)

24.1 (-7.5%)

= 85.7 FSS

 

19.5 (-19%)

= 105.2 FSSM

My local theaters matinees and early evening looking pretty good for Solo. Number of showtimes is on the lower side but that allow for more sell-outs. 

 

I think Sat increase over true Friday will be good. 20% or so sounds about right.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

10% would be right in line with what most of these MD openers do on Sat. That would give 78-80 for the 3 day. 

if it's does ~50% of RO's ow after doing ~50% of RO's previews, it's not good as the Sunday will be bigly inflated and then there's no Christmas legs to come. 60% drop from RO's dom would be ~213, which is 2.66-2.73x the FSS.

[MovieMan89]

@terrestrial

I'm so done with that argument, but I did want to let you know that when I said "no one" I was referring to the outlets that report on this stuff. Sorry if it offended you personally. 

[Valonqar]

39 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

I disagree. Ultron could not have afforded to be hated. It would have damaged the brand. I mean look at the DCEU. They had the same said advantage of no over arching story line and yet they ruined it by not utilizing the characters properly.

 

MCU has built trust in its audience by consistently delivering decen to great movies. And the audiences know that they will at least leave the theater feeling like they haven’t wasted their money instead of feeling ripped off.  Star Wars on the other hand is a different story. The prequel triology is pretty much hated along with TLJ and now Solo. That makes what - 4-5 bad movies in total out of 10.  There’s a 50% chance of paying to see a good Star Wars movie. It gets even worse when you realize that out of the last 6 movies only TWO have actually been well received - making it even fresher in the audience memory that the Star Wars brand is not to be trusted.   

Ultron clearly could afford being hated (not that they wanted it) because AIW didn't suffer one bit. Different story, different villain, different event altogether. 

[Rebeccas]

20 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

Anyway, its now 1 hour until the final showing at my local here in the UK. They have still sold a grand total of 4 tickets..

Well it’s the CL final and you done fucked up. 

[TheMovieman]

Anecdotal and all that, but not a single sell out at the theater near me.

[Water Bottle]

17 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Did we really spend infinite pages arguing SW vs MCU and whether or not is SW doomed or whatever? Folks, if Jurassic Park III couldn't murderrape the JP franchise to death and left the door open for Jurassic World to show up and blow the expectations out the water, SW is sure as shit not dead as a result of Solo. Plain and simple. If anything, TLJ was the one that put Ep. IX on track to either drop or only marginally increase DOM, and absolutely a drop OS from TLJ too, but it will still clear 1B WW nonetheless. Sure, TLJ hurt the brand and interest on Ep. IX has been diminshed as a result of what goes down in that movie, but the brand is not in its deathbed as a result. Just needs some time off to both rest and put focus on a solid plan going forward.

 

So all Disney has to do is wait like 10 years for Episode 9 so it can explode like JW after it's version of JP3.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

if it's does ~50% of RO's ow after doing ~50% of RO's previews, it's not good as the Sunday will be bigly inflated and then there's no Christmas legs to come. 60% drop from RO's dom would be ~213, which is 2.66-2.73x the FSS.

And believe it or not that's actually a really strong multi among 50m+ MD openers this decade. 2.5x or so would be more in line with the trend. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

So all Disney has to do is wait like 10 years for Episode 9 so it can explode like JW after it's version of JP3.

A new Star Wars movie would have a massive OW after another 10 year drought. Not that it will happen so it's a moot point. 

Edited May 26, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

 

So all Disney has to do is wait like 10 years for Episode 9 so it can explode like JW after it's version of JP3.

Sure, that works, I guess. Build Episode X like no one's business, give it a good enough hook for fanboys and GA's alike, and there you go.

 

(Tbvh, I think that the Weiss/Benioff stuff, assuming they are movies, could be smash hits; especially if they go the Old Republic route. But even if they do something original, if they are allowed to stand on their own and build strong wom off the bat, they could get the kind of numbers Star Wars is known for. OS audiences would likely be more interested in that than in more OT-milking too, since they wouldn't feel alienated.)