HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Water Bottle said:

 

If you bomb at the box office generally TV channels don't pay that much for the movie compared to a hit. Same with streaming. Disc sales have been a joke for years now. 

It does tend to be directly fixed by your box office how much TV give you and same from streaming, that is true, but for streaming at least difference between a 100m and a 200m will be big, between a 220m movie and 500m not necessarily proportional.

 

Disc sales is really getting far from 2006, but was still a 4.7 billion industry in the united state alone last year:

 

If you include EST, direct unit sales was still 6.87b, depending on retention rate wonder how much smaller it was than the studio share of the box office. Brick&Mortar rental, that is really all gone now too, but the brick and mortar rental + physical mailing rental + kiosk is still a 2.1billion a year affair, still bigger than VOD.

 

Liongates is pretty much the only studio that is not a subdivision and public, give way more detail on those revenues sources:

http://investors.lionsgate.com/~/media/Files/L/LionsGate-IR/annual-reports/2017-annual-report.pdf

 

And in 2017 for the films revenues, domestic:

 

Theatrical: 353.7m

Physical home ent: 247m

Digital home ent: 192.7m

TV: 238.7m

 

Physical was still the biggest revenues source for Liongates after theater and even increased from 2016 (now you see me 2, deep water horizon, hacksaw ridge, hell or high water, mechanic being good home video title for them).

 

In the past they had a nice breakdown for just their own title released in theater and by year of release that made it possible to see an evolution and the relative importance of each revenues source without the noise of the library of older title, sadly it is gone now it seem. But even in recent year's (say 2014 movies), physical was still really significant, at least for Liongates title.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Barnack

[John Marston]

Just now, GirafficPark said:

I actually dont care, SW isnt really that big a deal for me. Im simply interested in the numbers. The justifications im seeing here are very weak thats all. The notion that TLJ is responsible for the 'death' of SW is laughable. My opinions are based on historical data, most others seem to be based on personal opinions.

 

TLJ has not killed Star wars

 

 

but it damaged the brand 

 

 

and Solo is a mega flop and deflecting to “oh it will make money from tv airings” doesn’t change that 

[Mekanos]

I fully expect episode 9 to have a 50/50 ratio.

[GirafficPark]

Just now, water said:

nice to see someone else who gets it

He behaved like himself though. Poe had no character beyond grinning idiot in TFA. Ren behaved like himself, Rey saw herself in Ren, which is why she felt sympathy. Im not saying it was all great or anything, but it wasn't mischaracterisation.

[The Panda]

Seasons 3, 4 and 6 of GOT are GOAT discussion worthy.

 

Seasons 1, 2 are top-tier and nearly there too.

 

Seasons 5 and 7 have their flaws but are still really great.

 

It also has a great chance of breaking SNL’s record for most Emmy wins (50) with only 8 seasons compared to SNL’s 42.  It blows any other TV Drama out of the water when it comes to awards wins though.

[Barnack]

41 minutes ago, Alli said:

But was the budget really 100M? Ive said it before, but some of these budgets are not realistic. i believe they are inflated.

Really close, comedy with big names around 2010 were often around 100m budgets.

 

Other guys, The

DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (98,455)

OVERHEAD (9,370)

PARTICIPATIONS (4,620)

 

Obviously Other guys got an average world P&A of just 73.47m if it low intl performance would have been a surprise and if it would have got a 100-110m release expecting to do well, that would have been different.

 

The movie made nearly 250m.

 

 

 

 

[Rebeccas]

15 minutes ago, water said:

rey's main thing in tfa is looking for belonging and family. she finds in in han and finn. kylo kills one of them and almost kills the other, not to mention tortures her. in the next movie she randomly becomes sympathetic to him like literally 2 days later. it was completely out of character.

 

finn was the principal character of tfa in terms of having the most lines and being the one to drive the plot. i consider him and rey equal co-leads, but his actions move the story forward, not hers. in tlj he's relegated to a sideplot that doesn't follow up on his position as a stormtrooper who defected at all. 

 

etc.

Same. I thought it was a Rey and Finn story based on their screentime in TFA. TLJ turned it into a Kylo Ren story. 

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

He behaved like himself though. Poe had no character beyond grinning idiot in TFA. Ren behaved like himself, Rey saw herself in Ren, which is why she felt sympathy. Im not saying it was all great or anything, but it wasn't mischaracterisation.

I know you say none is looking at the data, but could you plz tell how you see the major OS markets: LA, Asia, Europe, Australia evolve for that 20% - 25%. I am not telling anyone that their wrong, I just want to see how you would see it establish. 

I can see a Dom of 750m + if it's good. But I am more intrested in how you think OS will evolve.

[GirafficPark]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

Same. I thought it was a Rey and Finn story based on their screentime in TFA. TLJ turned it into a Kylo Ren story. 

It was a Kylo/Rey story, and it was always going to be, whoever wrote it. Finn and Poe were always superfluous.

[GirafficPark]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

I know you say none is looking at the data, but could you plz tell how you see the major OS markets: LA, Asia, Europe, Australia evolve for that 20% - 25%. I am not telling anyone that their wrong, I just want to see how you would see it establish. 

I can see a Dom of 750m + if it's good. But I am more intrested in how you think OS will evolve.

My prediction is DOM only right now. I haven't done the maths for WW.

[harrycaul]

I hope we can all at least agree Oscar Issac has been terribly wasted as an actor in both movies.

[GraceRandolph]

49 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Ultron could afford to be divisive and not hurt AIW because these movies are largely stand alone. You can skip AoU and still follow AIW w/o problem. OTOH, ST is serialized af so you cannot expect IX story to be something completely different. It's going to pick up loose threads from TLJ even if they try to use a time jump to sweep some stuff under the rug. It won't be a new story but continuation of the one that people didn't like very much. That's a difference between MCU and the Saga. MCU trilogies are more often than not 3 standalone movies with loose shared universe connections. But it's always new villain, new supporting characters, new planets or cities, etc. Unlike the Saga that carries over elements that were not popular previously, something that MCU movies can easily discard. Example: Jane and Darcy out of Ragnarok, who cares? But while Finn and Rose were the most unpopular element of TLJ, even "good riddance" crowd would wonder where they've gone, if IX dropped them off screen, cause of continuity. Like, lack of Jane&Darcy increased my enthusiasm for Ragnarok 100%. But just thinking about Finn and Rose or either's return kills my interest in IX. That's MCU advantage. 

I disagree. Ultron could not have afforded to be hated. It would have damaged the brand. I mean look at the DCEU. They had the same said advantage of no over arching story line and yet they ruined it by not utilizing the characters properly.

 

MCU has built trust in its audience by consistently delivering decen to great movies. And the audiences know that they will at least leave the theater feeling like they haven’t wasted their money instead of feeling ripped off.  Star Wars on the other hand is a different story. The prequel triology is pretty much hated along with TLJ and now Solo. That makes what - 4-5 bad movies in total out of 10.  There’s a 50% chance of paying to see a good Star Wars movie. It gets even worse when you realize that out of the last 6 movies only TWO have actually been well received - making it even fresher in the audience memory that the Star Wars brand is not to be trusted.   

[Barnack]

27 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Can you say where EP9 will increase? And do you expect an as big rebouwned like ROTS?

Easier to rebound from Attack of the Clones that was #3 movie of it's released year and not in the top 10 of all time when it released than to rebound from The Last Jedi, biggest movie of the year / almost top 5 of all time.

 

Last Jedi is more something you wish to be close too than to rebound from.

[water]

Just now, GirafficPark said:

He behaved like himself though. Poe had no character beyond grinning idiot in TFA. Ren behaved like himself, Rey saw herself in Ren, which is why she felt sympathy. Im not saying it was all great or anything, but it wasn't mischaracterisation.

ok like, agree to disagree lol. in december/january i would have spent hours arguing how they were very hurtfully mischaracterized. but i shouldn't have to explain why a teen girl being tortured and preyed on by an adult school shooter over a decade older than her, and then being portrayed as sympathetic to him is... not great. so now i'm just content in telling you: "in my opinion they were very hurtfully mischaracterized", and moving on with my life because at this point everything i've read about episode 9 points to it going back to the original characterizations, so i'd rather be excited for that than dwell on a movie that will be the odd one out of the trilogy anyway.

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, GirafficPark said:

My prediction is DOM only right now. I haven't done the maths for WW.

Ok, then I could follow your logic. I don't think it's crazy to think Dom might do $750m for EP9.

[MovieMan89]

54 minutes ago, Barnack said:

At the time it was about a 500m WW very heavy domestic than 400m (400!!! really ????)

 

Very domestic heavy can be surprising to some, The other guy for example:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ferrellwahlberg2010.htm

Production Budget: $100 million

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$119,219,978	70.0%
+ Foreign:	$51,212,949	30.0%
= Worldwide:	$170,432,927

 

Not only didn't loose money, but made a 20m profit, but on movies close around the edge I do not have much of an opinion, even studio's does not know before it play out, but certainly if it would fall to a 400m WW performance it would probably loose money yes, because that would probably show an home entertainment rejection to come also.

 

But to give an extreme example a movie like Hitch:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=hitch.htm

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$179,495,555	48.8%
+ Foreign:	$188,604,865	51.2%
= Worldwide:	$368,100,420

 

Made 490m in revenues with 0 from consumer product sales and would have turned a profit even with a 250m budget if Smith would have agree to push is bonus.

 

 

 

I know being DOM heavy is always more important for turning a profit, but I thought if a movie doesn't at least match its budget DOM, then it needs to pick up some major slack OS right? Solo will likely fall a solid 50m or more from matching its budget DOM, and OS is in even worse shape. That's why I don't understand how it's going to be profitable?

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Well, we can talk about performance. We have hard numbers there.

 

And is that not 100% pointless to do too ?

[LonePirate]

1 minute ago, harrycaul said:

I hope we can all at least agree Oscar Issac has been terribly wasted as an actor in both movies.

TLJ did seem to shut the door on the most interesting aspect of his character (his possible attraction to Finn), which is surprising given the other progressive themes in TLJ. Maybe Abrams will revisit it in Episode IX.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, Pandamia! said:

Seasons 3, 4 and 6 of GOT are GOAT discussion worthy.

 

Seasons 1, 2 are top-tier and nearly there too.

 

Seasons 5 and 7 have their flaws but are still really great.

 

It also has a great chance of breaking SNL’s record for most Emmy wins (50) with only 8 seasons compared to SNL’s 42.  It blows any other TV Drama out of the water when it comes to awards wins though.

Definitely agree with you on this, though I might demote 5 to just being ok. 3, 4, and 6 really may be the most compelling TV I've ever watched though. Damn near perfect seasons. 

[Zakiyyah6]

It's difficult to know what episode 9 is going to do here in the States. We don't have a trailer, we don't know what it's hook is going to be. Sight unseen, for now, I would not predict an increase as much as a slight decrease.