HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[MovieMan89]

It's amazing when a 13-15m early preview range for Solo now feels more likely to trend down than up. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

When Book Club is ahead of Deadpool 2. 

 

Forget about that good hold for DP2 this weekend 

He lives in Florida, dont worry about it

[MrGamer]

4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

John Campea's "Could Solo make $200M Opening Weekend" Video

 

 

Campea making this video doesn't shock me in the least. 

[MAKKALUL]

Star Wars is no marvel. They should stick to the main series.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah I don't understand the timing of the Boba Fett announcement today if Lucasfilm intentionally leaked it to Hollywood Reporter.  

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Based on how later shows are selling, I'm thinking it'll be at the middle end of that range at best. Don't expect it to go past $15M.

 

It'll certainly have a better OW to preview ratio than the 5.3 Rogue One had, but I'm having a hard time seeing a better figure than JL's $93M with that.

JL had $13M, so the similarities between the 2 movies continue their uncanny twinning...

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

And to think you guys were freaking out about DP2’s opening.

That wasn't pretty either but we will save it for another time 

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

That wasn't pretty either but we will save it for another time 

Solo's BO is looking uglier than Wade Wilson and you know it

Edited May 25, 2018 by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

[Ledmonkey96]

Given this..... there's a real chance Ant-man and the wasp gets in the top 5 for the year.... we just need jurassic World to be as panned as Solo and Super hero movies could take up 1,2,3,4 for the year.......

Edited May 25, 2018 by Ledmonkey96

[REC]

6 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah I don't understand the timing of the Boba Fett announcement today if Lucasfilm intentionally leaked it to Hollywood Reporter.  

They need to try and at least pretend all is good and positive and good and positive stuff is on the horizon.  Marketing spin 101.  And I'm sure they put this tidbit out on purpose.  The train is on the rails, going full steam ahead.  Haven't you heard?

Edited May 25, 2018 by REC

[MikeQ]

Rogue One seems like the best comparison, as the only other Star Wars "spinoff" movie to which we can compare Solo. Rogue One felt more akin to your typical Star Wars movie (the main franchise) than Solo does (from my perspective, at least), so my guess/expectation is that Solo will not be as frontloaded as Rogue One. It is also opening with far less in preview grosses, too, suggesting perhaps it won't be as frontloaded. Thus, my guess would be that the percentage of opening day from previews will be lower - but how much lower? If I'm wrong and it essentially follows Rogue One (~40% of opening day from previews), then Solo is looking at a ~$32-37M total Friday gross. But right now I'm pegging that as the minimum.

 

If previews instead make up say ~35% of the opening day gross, then Solo is looking at ~$37-43M opening day. Then the rest depends on how the long weekend pans out.

 

But I'm just thinking out loud. Watch me be totally wrong and the film is pretty frontloaded. I'm not confident in pegging how it will pan out. We'll find out!  

 

For comparison - preview gross (and share of opening day from previews in brackets):

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story — 13.0 to 15.0 million (TBD%)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)

Other films in the $13-15M preview gross area for comparison:

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%)
Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%)
Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%)
Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%)
Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%)
Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%)
Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%)
The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey — 13 million (35.0%)
Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%)

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited May 25, 2018 by MikeQ

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Given this..... there's a real chance Ant-man and the wasp gets in the top 5 for the year.... we just need jurassic World to be as panned as Solo and Super hero movies could take up 1,2,3,4 for the year.......

I'm actually wondering about Jurassic World now... brands that were a sure thing three years ago aren't anymore. 

[Eastwood47]

Our theaters here are not doing well at all. I realize its just local but Star Wars usually gets this town up, especially on premiere night, and there is nothing going on at any of these theaters. I'm wondering if $13 million is being too generous. 

[Hunch]

3 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Given this..... there's a real chance Ant-man and the wasp gets in the top 5 for the year.... we just need jurassic World to be as panned as Solo and Super hero movies could take up 1,2,3,4 for the year.......

If there's one blockbuster this summer that's reviews-proof it's surely Jurassic World. People just love the dinosaurs, no one goes to see those films expecting a complex plot and great acting.

[MrGlass2]

[Ozymandias]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Doing some comps with previous Star Wars movies and a 5% Sunday drop/15% Monday on all:

 

TLJ:

 

30.3M (2.33x previews)

18.5M (-39%)

17.6M (-5%)

15M (-15%)

66.4M 3 Day, 81.4M 4 Day

 

Rogue One:

 

31.9M (2.45x previews)

20.7M (-35%)

19.7M (-5%)

16.7M (-15%)

82.3M 3 Day, 97M 4 Day

 

TFA:

 

27.2M (2.09x previews)

15.5M (-43%)

14.7M (-5%)

12.5M (-15%)

57.4M 3 Day, 69.9M 4 Day

 

this could be the terminator genitals of SW

 

damn Emilia....

[Zakiyyah6]

The Star Wars movies have been massively frontloaded opening weekend. I'm feeling really good about my 34mil Friday prediction.

[Hunch]

4 minutes ago, REC said:

They need to try and at least pretend all is good and positive and good and positive stuff is on the horizon.  Marketing spin 101.  And I'm sure they put this tidbit out on purpose.  The train is on the rails, going full steam ahead.  Haven't you heard?

Yeah the Boba Fett leak is most likely a last ditch attempt to drum up more publicity for Solo. After all, Boba and Han are linked story-wise, the public associates both characters with one another.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Hunch

[TalismanRing]

31 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

ow = 6x+ the previews imo if it's backloaded compared to tfa, tlj, ro.

17-19 gives 106-114 fss with 6x and gives 110-124 with 6.5x.

The lower the preview number the higher the internal multiplier for SW.   This looks to be going lower than half RO so I could see it bumped up to 7+ when we add in the MD boost to Sunday.

 

I'm having a very hard time seeing 17-19m previews though considering the pace of sales on Fandango all week and the pre-sale numbers given to us bu @Deep Wang  I think 14-15 would be the extreme high end.

 

Edit:   I'm several pages behind.  Just saw Deadline's Previews estimate. The $15 still surprises me a bit.

Edited May 25, 2018 by TalismanRing

[WrathOfHan]

7:00 2D: 93/124

7:00 3D: 60/113

7:30 2D: 38/67

7:30 3D: 23/78

7:45: 24/63

8:00: 54/78

8:30 3D: 24/69

9:00: 62/78

9:45 32/78

Total: 400/748 (293 2D/107 3D)

 

Comps:

 

37% of The Last Jedi (16.7M)

38% of Infinity War (14.8M)

80% of Black Panther (20.2M)

94% of Deadpool 2 (17.5M)

119% of Thor: Ragnarok (16.1M)

124% of Justice League (16.1M)

 

The last two shows picked up the pace quite a bit, but now that we have a range, it's all on the west coast to make things up.