Thanksgiving Weekend Thread: ESTIMATES (Page 40) | Ralph 55.7M (84.5M Total) | Creed II 35.3M (55.8M Total) | The Grinch 30.2M | Grindelwald 29.7M | Robin Hood 9.1M (14.2M Total) | AMAZING BLACK FRIDAY SALE

[sfran43]

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Saw this brought up on twitter yesterday - the awards movies failing seems to be a combo of every awards bait movie being crammed into the last 2 months and the general public now thinking of awards bait movies as “Don’t need to watch this on the big screen because it’s awards bait which means it’s probably a slow and boring movie”

I don't think that's it. Last year saw Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, I, Tonya, The Post, and Phantom Thread (all movies that went on to receive major Oscar attention) all open in the last two months and each put up at least respectable grosses. I guess last year's crop of contenders was just more appealing to audiences than the ones this year.

[Cooper Legion]

Going to get tantalizing close to WIR doing 2x CoG domesticallly 

[MovieMan89]

Nutcracker and WiT died for Disney’s sins this year so all their other children could have eternal salvation. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Jonwo]

24 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I sincerely doubt WB will be comfortable continuing the current plan for the FB franchise after this box office performance. There will be some re-tooling going on. How Rowling reacts will be the interesting piece in all of this. 

I get the feeling it's going to be a Star Trek II situation where the creator is kicked upstairs. Rowling, Yates and Heyman have no one to blame but themselves. 

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Under The Grinch 

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't believe that the N-word controversy, which never blew up much, hurt Green Book. If business doesn't pick up for the film over the coming weeks I think it's because they weren't able to convince more people that it was more than Oscarbait.

 

Also, people talk about that A+ Cinemascore that Green Book has but The Hate U Give has the same Cinemascore and will struggle to hit 31-32mil on a 23mil budget. Love Simon only did 40.8mil with that same Cinemascore. That score doesn't promise big numbers the way people imply that it does.

[sfran43]

 

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

this is baad

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I get the feeling it's going to be a Star Trek II situation where the creator is kicked upstairs. Rowling, Yates and Heyman have no one to blame but themselves. 

As soon as I heard Rowling had five scripts planned for the story, I was very weary. She is treating a screenplay too much like a book and failing to understand how much of a difference there is. 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I don't think that's it. Last year saw Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, I, Tonya, The Post, and Phantom Thread (all movies that went on to receive major Oscar attention) all open in the last two months and each put up at least respectable grosses. I guess last year's crop of contenders was just more appealing to audiences than the ones this year.

Agree, oscar movies has been slow and boring to many for decades....Not sure why people now only realise they shouldn't watch on big screen.

 

I guess last year's marketing was better for those award-friendly film 

[WrathOfHan]

Green Book isn't doomed at the Oscars yet. There's still a good sized portion of the Academy that eats films like this up, and it's not like Actor/Supporting Actor are strong enough fields for Mortensen and Ali to definitely miss a nomination (the former isn't safe tho). Screenplay probably won't happen anymore because that branch tends to be the most interesting in regards to film selection.

[John Marston]

No surprise Fantastic Beasts 2 is underperforming when it’s fucking boring and nothing happens. I mean what do you expect 

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s probably more due to the fact that there’s actual appealing mainstream adult drama fare this year like ASIB, BR, and Creed 2.

This. people cry over unappealing movies flopping left and right just because they were aiming at the awards. That doesn't make them automatically appealing or even good. And ASIB is an example of a movie that's stronger awards contender than most recent flops plus has tremendous appeal. That it was buzzed about as the Oscar frontrunner didn't turn audience away.  It also didn't have to run a bait and switch marketing to get butts in seats.

[kswiston]

Fantastic Beasts 2 is going to miss 160M domestic. 

 

Edit: same holds as FB1 going forward would be a 39.7M 5 day. But FB2 has held worse every day. 

 

FB1 made 1.19x its thanksgiving 5 day during the rest of its run. 

 

So even if FB2 matched the strong legs of the first film going forward, it would end at 162M. 

Edited November 22, 2018 by kswiston

[MovieMan89]

My thing with CoG is what would be happening right now if the marketing campaign hadn’t been so aggressive and well done? The first’s marketing campaign was super low key and horribly uninteresting looking. Had WB not really stepped it up for this one, it may have been a complete disaster DOM.

[Zakiyyah6]

I think Green Book will get a decent amount of nominations. It won't win anything though.