Best Picture Predictions - 2019

[filmlover]

23 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

What editing

Yeah, if Birdman wasn't nominated with a similar gimmick this won't either.

 

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm not sure about that. It will end up being A24's biggest hit of the year and they are probably pushing it harder than any of their other films. Actress and Supporting Actress seem weak enough for Awkwafina and Shuzhen to get in.

Waiting to see how Waves does first. FWIW they have been giving that a decent-sized marketing push so far. I've seen the trailer before the last couple of prestige movies I saw (Harriet, Jojo, Parasite).

[Cmasterclay]

I'm not sold on Marriage Story as a potential winner - it'll definitely get nominated, but among just the Netflix movies Irishman has better reviews, much more promotion from the studio, an absolute blitz from the legendary cast/crew, and an easier hook. It feels like Netflix's Death Star compared to Marriage Story, an extremely well reviewed indie dramedy already getting some backlash for its themes and balance. Unfortunately, I am VERY sold on JoJo Rabbit as a potential winner - very Green Book esque to me tbh, but I don't have it winning because the alternates are more strongly positioned than Roma was. I still have Little Women winning because it'll make gangbusters at the box office, the Academy can feel good about rewarding it without feeling too radical, and it will combine a fair amount of passion with a lack of controversy and people putting it last like Hollywood or Rabbit or Irishman. Parasite won't win because its the best movie of the year (counterpoint: so were Spotlight and Moonlight and they did. Counterpoint to the counterpoint - they both had the word "Light" in the title and Parasite didn't). I feel very good about the top six here and very not good at all about anything after that in the Best Picture race - I can legitimately make a good case for ten other movies to take the last two/three spots.

 

Picture

1. Little Women

2. The Irishman

3. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

4. JoJo Rabbit

5. Parasite

6. Marriage Story

7. The Two Popes

8. Bombshell

Alt: 1917

Also can make a very legit case for: Ford v Ferrari, The Farewell, Joker, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Waves, A Hidden Life, Dark Waters, Queen and Slim

 

Director

1. Quentin Tarantino

2. Bong Joon-Ho

3. Martin Scorsese

4. Greta Gergwig

5. Taikia Waiti

Alt: Noah Bauchaum 

 

Actor

1. Adam Driver

2. Joaquin Phoenix

3. Eddie Murphy

4. Leonardo DiCaprio

5. Robert De Niro

Alt: Antonio Banderas

 

Actress

1. Renee Zellweger 

2. Scarlett Johansson 

3. Charlize Theoren

4. Saorsie Ronan

5. Cynthia Ervio

Alt: Awkwafina

 

Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt

2. Al Pacino

3. Tom Hanks

4. Joe Pesci

5. Anthony Hopkins

Alt: Willem Dafoe

 

Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern

2. Florence Pugh

3. Jennifer Lopez

4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell edition)

5. Scarlett Johannson

Alt: Zhao Shuzen

[CoolioD1]

i go back and forth over parasite and jojo rabbit but usually when the academy gives the oscar to something lame they course correct the next year and try to give it to something cool. two broad and clumsy race dramedies back to back with green book and jojo would be off. but the one thing that helps Jojo not seem like a lame old man pick like green book is Taika himself, because the internet fucking loves him. so he's a big help in that regard.

[filmlover]

Jojo Rabbit winning Best Picture to the chagrin of the entire Internet is the kind of scenario I could see happening (and would make me roll my eyes even more than Green Book's win did) lol. I didn't care for the movie much but there are definitely parts of it that will connect (including one moment later in the movie that made me want to say "you got me" to Taika). Oddly he handles the dramatic parts of the movie a whole lot better than the forced whimsy when I would've guessed the opposite heading in, makes one wish he had just made it as a straight up drama instead.

[lorddemaxus]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Jojo Rabbit winning Best Picture to the chagrin of the entire Internet is the kind of scenario I could see happening (and would make me roll my eyes even more than Green Book's win did) lol. I didn't care for the movie much but there are definitely parts of it that will connect (including one moment later in the movie that made me want to say "you got me" to Taika). Oddly he handles the dramatic parts of the movie a whole lot better than the forced whimsy when I would've guessed the opposite heading in, makes one wish he had just made it as a straight up drama instead.

I thought the internet loves JoJo though. They certainly love Taika.

[filmlover]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

I thought the internet loves JoJo though. They certainly love Taika.

We'll see what happens as more people see it as the season moves along.

[CoolioD1]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I thought the internet loves JoJo though. They certainly love Taika.

for sure i've seen plenty of people, y'know the performative leftist twitter types who shit on green book and movies like that, who are raving jojo rabbit.

[RealLyre]

6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm not sold on Marriage Story as a potential winner - it'll definitely get nominated, but among just the Netflix movies Irishman has better reviews

I doubt Marriage Story would get much outside of acting (and maybe screenplay) but its reviews are on par if not slightly better than the Irishman (97% on RT & 94 on MC). and I'd say a divorce drama with showy acting from well known stars is an easier hook than a 3.5 hour gangstar crime drama. at least for me. 

 

also what Marriage Story backlash? 

[Jake Gittes]

Marriage Story would have probably swept if James L. Brooks made it 30 years ago but it doesn't seem Important enough to win big today. 

 

I would also say Shape of Water was absolutely broad and clumsy so a Jojo win would be par for the course at this moment. That Taika is, like GDT, a much more Internet-friendly director than Peter Farrelly will help, sure.

[stripe]

Are we already talking about winners? Too early! I can still picture a winning scenario for Parasite, 1917, Little Women, Marriage Story, Irishman and Jojo Rabbit. Even for Once upon a time in Hollywood. Also, I'm kind of surprised with the lack of confidence with Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

 

I only have two things clear: 1/ There won't be 3 Netflix movies nommed in BP. 2/ One of the December movies (1917, Bombshell and Little Women) won't be nommed in BP.

 

With that in mind, my predictions:

 

Once upon a time in Hollywood

Marriage Story

Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Parasite

Little Women

1917

A Beautiful Day in the Neigborhood

Joker (weakest contender)

 

Alt. Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, Farewell

 

 

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

Little Women looks like a crowd pleaser but I'm not sure if it can be an award contender. 

 

 

[TMP]

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Irishman

Marriage Story

Parasite

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

1917

Ford v Ferrari

[The Panda]

1917
Beautiful Day

Farewell
Hollywood

Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Marriage Story

Parasite
Alts: Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Knives Out

 

 

I think Parasite wins.  Should be able to garner a consensus vote

 

Could see one of Marriage Story or Irishman missing simply because idk if there’s enough Netflix backing in the Academy to push two of their films in.

 

I think Farewell still makes it in because it’s A24’s sole push really.  And a much easier push than either Eighth Grade or First Reformed were.

Edited November 17, 2019 by The Panda

[lorddemaxus]

53 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I think Farewell still makes it in because it’s A24’s sole push really.  And a much easier push than either Eighth Grade or First Reformed were.

Although Farewell will probably gather one or two acting noms, I have a hard time seeing the Academy nominate two films that they would look at as foreign language (although Farewell isn't going for Foreign Language, most of the movie is in Chinese) for BP.

 

And I only see the younger voters carrying Parasite to a Best Picture nom, not a win.

Edited November 17, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Although Farewell will probably gather one or two acting noms, I have a hard time seeing the Academy nominate two films that they would look at as foreign language (although Farewell isn't going for Foreign Language, most of the movie is in Chinese) for BP.

 

And I only see the younger voters carrying Parasite to a Best Picture nom, not a win.

Parasite is universally liked.

 

Dont buy that The Farewell will be viewed as a foreign film

[titanic2187]

Most likely win, marraige story or irishman,

 

English language film will always posses the advantage over non-english film especially when they are all seen as universal critically acclaimed 

[SLAM!]

Well, Ford V Ferrari has increased chances across the board, thanks to its excellent box office. A Best Picture nomination is likely at the very least, and, frankly, it seems like the film deserves it. We sort of need a film like Ford V Ferrari to get the BP nomination, so people go see it in theaters.

[Webslinger]

I... actually kinda loved Jojo Rabbit? It's quite funny and earns all its heartstring-tugging moments. As an educator, I'd much rather see it be the new PG-13 Holocaust movie staple in classrooms rather than the eyeroll-inducing Boy in the Striped Pajamas. I also think it would make a somewhat better winner than Green Book last year, as low a bar as that may be to clear.

[Valonqar]

So what's the consensus on Joker? Picture nom yes or no?

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

So what's the consensus on Joker? Picture nom yes or no?

 

The consensus is that it's a fringe candidate. Could go either way. I want to see what the Golden Globes do before I say whether or not Joker will get in. But Joker has a lot of industry respect behind it, so I think its chances are pretty high among the fringe candidates.