CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, DAR said:

Don't shoot the messenger

 

 

Now that is impressive. 

[XO21]

4 minutes ago, DAR said:

Don't shoot the messenger

 

 

Lower than The Incredible Hulk.

[justvision]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This isn’t a good comparison, making 2.65x coming from a $ 155M debut is much easier. Also first metrics from public seems really strong.

Point taken. On the other hand, it can be argued that CM may not the usual legs of solo MCU movies, since its OW seems to be much bigger than them.

[RealLyre]

 

 

doomsday scenario would be

Spoiler

OW under GotG 2

 

 

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, DAR said:

Don't shoot the messenger

 

 

Ugh, wish I still had Twitter so I could utterly embarrass that guy. Oh well, tweets like that are also why I went completely dark on social media so....

[MovieMan89]

RT does need to do something at this point about their audience score. It's clearly way too easy to manipulate. It's ironic too, because for all the flack IMDB gets around here, you never see scores as easily trolled there after a movie starts getting a decent amount of votes (case and point, CM's IMDB score of 6.6 isn't bad enough to say its being drastically affected by trolls, opposed to RT's 33% which is being majorly trolled). 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Honestly thinking around $160M OW DOM with that number. Pretty excellent.

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@Krissykins this is not demo breakdown for weekend but only for Thursday and that day is more male-driven. female attendance is likely going to increase and edge out male during the weekend. 

Yeh I know, that’s why I said hopefully it’ll make it up over the weekend 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I know, that’s why I said hopefully it’ll make it up over the weekend 

for sure. 

[Cap]

DHD's "91% to 82% with females over 25 bestowing the best grades from adults on Carol Danvers at 96% positive" will be EXCELLENT for this movie's legs and WOM.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, captainwondyful said:

DHD's "91% to 82% with females over 25 bestowing the best grades from adults on Carol Danvers at 96% positive" will be EXCELLENT for this movie's legs and WOM.

Definitely.

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, justvision said:

Point taken. On the other hand, it can be argued that CM may not the usual legs of solo MCU movies, since its OW seems to be much bigger than them.

I agreed with you... instead of 2.8 - 3.0x that it could do with so little competition, i’m expecting 2.6-2.7x

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Deadline is gonna Deadline but they are using Suicide Squad as the comp.

 

20.7 is mighty impressive no matter how you slice it. The weekend is going to be impressive. I think we won’t truly know how impressive until estimated. 

 

I will say that if WW1984 pulls 20.7 in previews, I will do the happy dance all through the weekend. Great number! 

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

RT does need to do something at this point about their audience score. It's clearly way too easy to manipulate. It's ironic too, because for all the flack IMDB gets around here, you never see scores as easily trolled there after a movie starts getting a decent amount of votes (case and point, CM's IMDB score of 6.6 isn't bad enough to say its being drastically affected by trolls, opposed to RT's 33% which is being majorly trolled). 

They should have some manual checks to remove obvious trolls. Over 5 pages i saw 9 different users give 0-1 star with this exact same comment "I_am_Robbie_the_synthetic_comment". edit: and found 1 5 star one with that comment. but those should be removed irrespective of rating.

Edited March 8, 2019 by a2k

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

150m+ OW would be fantastic. Hard to tell how pre-sale heavy it's going to be (women factor, 2 month presale period, MCU becoming more presale heavy etc). 

 

Looks like a huge weekend regardless, which the box office needed. 

[MikeQ]

I'm hoping someone will be able to help me: there used to be a forum post with a link to a spreadsheet (I think a google spreadsheet) with a collection of preview grosses for past films, etc. I'm pretty sure it used to be stickied in the 'Numbers and Data' sub-forum, but it is no longer there. Anyone know where I can find this? Cheers to anyone who is able to help.

 

Peace,

Mike

[TalismanRing]

32 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Hmmm:

 

Wonder Woman was 52% female for its first weekend. Maybe Captain Marvel can make up a bit over the weekend, unless it plays like every other Marvel film. 

52% of $103 = $53.56m

40% of $150m = $60m

 

It's the legs where a larger female audience will mostly come into play

 

That 60/40 split is actually more male heavy than I think all MCU films but this is previews so it should go up a couple of points this w/e and then a  few more during the length of it runs as most movies do.

Edited March 8, 2019 by TalismanRing

[MagnarTheGreat]

Marvel CU first entry / origin / solo / prequel First Weekend to Domestic Total average multiplier is 2.99.

Marvel CU sequel First Weekend to Domestic Total average multiplier is 2.53.

 

#	Top 10 March Domestic Title	Distributor	First Weekend	First Wekeend To Total Multiplier	Release
1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$174,750,616.00	2.88	3/17/17
2	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$166,007,347.00	1.99	3/25/16
3	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747.00	2.67	3/23/12
4	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$116,101,023.00	2.88	3/5/10
5	Logan (2017)	Fox	$88,411,916.00	2.56	3/3/17
6	Oz The Great and Powerful	BV	$79,110,453.00	2.97	3/8/13
7	Zootopia	BV	$75,063,401.00	4.55	3/4/16
8	300	WB	$70,885,301.00	2.97	3/9/07
9	Dr. Seuss' The Lorax	Uni.	$70,217,070.00	3.05	3/2/12
10	Ice Age: The Meltdown	Fox	$68,033,544.00	2.87	3/31/06
	Table average			2.94
	Table median			2.88

Edited March 8, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I agreed with you... instead of 2.8 - 3.0x that it could do with so little competition, i’m expecting 2.6-2.7x

Agree here too.

[Aurora]

"Just" 20.7? Beauty and The Beast's title is definitely safe. There will likely be frontloading because it's Women's Day today.

 

I'd say 145-165M seems like a good range.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Aurora