CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

The sense of importance. Not that Captain Marvel isn't important. But Infinity War was billed as the last Avengers; it had the foundation of a lengthy list of stars and a substantial amount of previous Marvel hits supporting it. The only Disney-brand Marvel film between Infinity War and this one was Ant-Man & The Wasp--this potentially limited the momentum.

 

But fear not; the weekend's only just begun. We may only know a few clues as to how the film could gross.

Ah, I needed that! thank you! 

 

@Deep Wang @Barnackthank you for explaining how pre-sales work. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Valonqar

[The Panda]

I don’t know why there was an expectation that Captain Marvel would have a 200m OW?

 

155m+ is a fantastic opening!

[DMan7]

Looks like the 200M is dead buddy! @Valonqar 

 

[Nova]

33 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

can someone please explain to me why CM couldn't open with 200M despite having presales second only to IW? I just don't get it. :verydepressed:

Because presales get bigger and bigger every year. Captain Marvel had a longer presales window. But the biggest factor imo is that between IW and CM the biggest openers have been Incredibles 2, Jurassic World, and Deadpool 2 (I maybe wrong about this list ) and none of them reached $200M OW so even if it beat all those films in presales, it doesn’t mean it would reach $200M OW. But let’s remember that one of those films is a kids movie, another film has shown us that it’s not exactly a preselling film/franchise and the last one is a preselling franchise but opened to $125M which isn’t anywhere near $200M. So it’s easy to see how CM is the highest preseller since IW and also seeing it miss $200M. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Nova

[Zakiyyah6]

Stop paying attention to that highest pre-sales marketing bullshit. The opening weekend will be outstanding but it was never headed for a 250mil opening weekend. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[DAJK]

63M being Asgard's low-end is outstanding. Even if it dips slightly and ends up around 62, that's still a phenomenal result. Higher than GOTG2 for crying out loud, and that had a beloved predecessor that was already a huge BO smash. This is literally an out-of-nowhere character. Marvel Brand is at the peak of its popularity, they better hope this can still keep up after Endgame. 

[Legion Again]

Keep it? Just staying level? My friends, you have seen the TA bump, we are now seeing the IW bump (seriously, CM’s performance in many OS markets is mind-boggling), but what you cannot yet imagine is the Endgame bump 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Keep it? Just staying level? My friends, you have seen the TA bump, you have seen the IW bump, but what you cannot yet imagine is the Endgame bump 

Spidey will reap the rewards.

[Yandereprime101189]

Jesus, Endgame's just a little over a month away. My God. . . .

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Stop paying attention to that highest pre-sales marketing bullshit. 

 

It's not marketing bullshit, we have actual numbers that tell us this. 

[The Panda]

I doubt Spidey has any major bump from Homecoming (if it even increases).

 

Captain Marvel is benefiting heavily from its Endgame tie-in imo.

[Zakiyyah6]

I want Alita's numbers. 😈

[Durden]

17 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This is literally an out-of-nowhere character. Marvel Brand is at the peak of its popularity, they better hope this can still keep up after Endgame. 

 

THIS. I thought at least Marvel would shown her in the Endgame trailer, or the Super Bowl spot. They did not even need it. 150m+ opening for CM is ridiculous.

[jedijake]

Once BOP posted their projections, I always figured the $100-$125 million "prediction" was ridiculous. It was pretty much as ridiculous as the $200 million. Not impossible but very very unlikely given the circumstances.

 

BOP seems to be spot on in terms of OW projections. Long-term forecasts? Now that's a different ball of wax.

 

That said, while the $450 million domestic for CM seems rather high, the $690 million for EG actually feels right. The $260-$280 million OW for EG already feels very accurate.

Edited March 9, 2019 by jedijake

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Remember when Doctor Strange's OW was considered a great win (still is of course)

 

But yeah Marvel has the GA's trust and until they make a complete stinker will continue to do so.

[Aurora]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

So 200M OW is dead? 😞

 

Incredibles 2 managed 634M dom off 182.6M OW. Surely CM can managed over 500M with 160M+?

Almost zero chance it gets part 500M. Assuming it lands around 150-165, it would need legs around 3-3.33. Landing in the 400M range seems likely.

 

the hype for this movie is likely slightly inflated due to it's circumstance/novelty and unlike Black Panther it has no where near the universal love or praise. It likely not getting an A+ cinemasocre and it seems to be that many like the film but it is nothing "Mind blowing" or "groundbreaking". So I wouldn't bet on legs being super amazing because it's already opened much higher than the other MCU debuts (barring BP). So Maybe legs around 2.6-2.85x.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Remember when Doctor Strange's OW was considered a great win (still is of course)

That was less than 2 and a half years ago. Yeezus, time flies. 

[KJsooner]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Of course it is. It's opening night.

 

Well, aren’t you a smart one Sherlock.

[YM!]

I am starting to think it’s going to be a real tough fight for number 1 of year domestic and worldwide between Endgame and Lion King. This shows the damn power that Marvel has in the game.

 

 

That said I’m not sure they’ll be reaching the heights/massive bumps post Endgame but barring Black Widow, I don’t see a MCU movie under $300M domestic or $700M WW.

[cax16]

Just got in from captain marvel. We all liked it.

 

We got Shazam, Hobbs and Shaw, lion king, frozen 2’and that Seth rogen comedy (forgot the name).

 

biggest reaction for anything was the end of the Shazam trailer where he jumps into the building( big laughs) only other reactions was for frozen 2, people seemed pretty excited for it. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by cax16