Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[a2k]

AEG's 16m would be a 113% Fri bump compared to 89% bump last Fri (I guess because with each passing week more people patiently wait for the weekend as early excitement and rush factor reduces)

 

AIW had similar improvement in Fri bumps, 103% on 2nd Fri vs 132% on 3rd Fri

[Porthos]

Saw the following banner ad on Pika PIka's RT page just now:

 

 

They're trying, I'll grant them that.

[doublejack]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

IW made 16M on 3rd Friday so from here on would expect slightly worse legs than IW.  Probably gonna finish 830-840M range in that case.  IW made 130M after this weekend so I think 115-120 for EG likely

I remain unconvinced that Endgame legs will be worse from this point than IW legs. IW had to deal with DP 2. Endgame has no such direct competition for a bit, yet.

 

If the legs are worse then it will be due to runtime and frontloading effects. We'll see how it goes.

[KJsooner]

10 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

IW made 16M on 3rd Friday so from here on would expect slightly worse legs than IW.  Probably gonna finish 830-840M range in that case.  IW made 130M after this weekend so I think 115-120 for EG likely

 

Huh? There’s no Deadpool 2 releasing next week. Which severely cut into Infinity Wars legs last year. Also had Incredibles 2. Incredibles 2 > Toy Story 4. 2.Here on out, I don’t see Endgame grossing less than Infinity War. 

Edited May 11, 2019 by KJsooner

[blackspider]

4 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I remain unconvinced that Endgame legs will be worse from this point than IW legs. IW had to deal with DP 2. Endgame has no such direct competition for a bit, yet.

 

If the legs are worse then it will be due to runtime and frontloading effects. We'll see how it goes.

 

It should stabilize after this. John Wick looks to open around 30-40m, a fraction of Deapool 2’s 125m OW. I think it should play well over memorial weekend and then enjoy some nice late summer legs. I’m holding out hope for 900m.

[JonathanLB]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Problem look at bay area is there is not much demand after 930PM. Even at Alamo Drafthouse where shows sell out easily its like only 20-25% full for 1030PM show. Its not as bad as yesterday where late shows are dead but its still very low. This movie being a 3 hour juggernaut makes it not so attractive after initial weekends when there is see at all cost at any time mindset.

 

Anyway you should happy that SW7 remains domestic king for another 2.5 years at worst or even longer.

I'm happy, for sure, no disrespect to Endgame though. I personally loved it! I'm a very big "casual" MCU fan. I have a high definition of fandom, and I am not a real fan, because I no longer show up opening night (too crazy) to the films. But I've seen every single MCU movie in IMAX at least once, I went to the Marvel IMAX marathon last summer for 5 showings, so much fun, and the movie I've seen most in theaters besides Star Wars films is Thor: Ragnorak, which I saw 4 times, 3 in IMAX! I own every MCU movie too, so I like to watch them again when I can. I would never root "against" Marvel, always happy to see the films do well, I want more! 

 

Still, of course, it would be my preference that TFA hold the throne so I am not going to lie and say I'm not pleased about it, but I think Endgame has done amazingly well. Before it opened, honestly I thought it would land just north of Infinity War, primarily because I figured people need to have seen all of these 20+ movies to get the story, and that maybe some people missed out on IW and would just figure, eh, I'll catch them both on Blu-ray or streaming later. But I was wrong, Endgame hit quite a lot harder than I expected and that opening was simply awe-inspiring. 

 

Again, I'm a terrible fan, I saw Endgame a week late! We went Thursday after the opening Thursday. I'm in the process of moving / selling my house and things were so busy, then my GF couldn't see it Tuesday or Wednesday when I wanted to see it, and I was nice and waited for her despite my eagerness to see it. 

[KJsooner]

Wrong thread.

Edited May 11, 2019 by KJsooner

[ZackM]

27 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Disappointing that the awful TFA reigns supreme. 

 

Benefitted from the perfect Xmas schedule to get many people who wouldn't be interested to give it a chance. 

 

Hopefully ROS continues the downward trend.

 

 

[KJsooner]

32 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Disappointing that the awful TFA reigns supreme. 

 

Benefitted from the perfect Xmas schedule to get many people who wouldn't be interested to give it a chance. 

 

Hopefully ROS continues the downward trend.

 

 

[MrPink]

No matter how low the Pokemon number gets, it could not disappoint me any harder than what transpired tonight.

 

It could make $5.7m this weekend and it'd still disappoint me less

[Minnale101]

Just now, MrPink said:

No matter how low the Pokemon number gets, it could not disappoint me any harder than what transpired tonight.

 

It could make $5.7m this weekend and it'd still disappoint me less

I was rooting for the rockets and detective pikachu. I think I’m bad luck lol. Hope my raptors don’t disappoint lol

[JonathanLB]

It's annoying that I had to care about that game. I'm a Blazers fan (I live in Portland for another few months, grew up here), and I really wanted to watch this game with my best friend, Game 7, but because Houston lost that pushed our game to 12:30 Sunday instead of the night game. Now, I'm the asshole because my GF is having her family over for Mother's Day brunch and I won't be actively participating, as much as I'll be down in the basement yelling at the TV  

[blackspider]

A local theater I track has Pika getting the matinee Dolby shows and then Avengers gets the night shows. It looked to be the wrong move on the GM’s part because Pikachu is killing it here. This is a very Asain heavy area so they should’ve been more aware of their demographics unless Disney forced their hand.

[Zakiyyah6]

Obviously my billion prediction for DP was dead weeks ago so oh well. That opening number will be decent but unless it has legs then blah.

 

As for Avengers, of course it is still a massive deal but I still think that there is no way in hell it does 18mil. My prediction remains 16.5mil. Wouldn't be stunned if it goes below that number.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[IceFire9yt]

At least it looks like Endgame's competition (Pika+JW3+Alladin) turned out to be no worse than IW's (DP2+Solo), perhaps a bit better even.

 

Deadpool was a 125M opener, and a superhero movie.  Solo also competed for the same franchise audience.  Honestly, having these movies all open so close to each other was a boneheaded move.

 

Pika ended up being much more of a family movie than originally thought, and opened lower than expectations to boot.  John Wick is overperforming, but isn't that direct of competition and is still going to have relatively modest opening (though it looks like it will kick EG out of Imax screens).  Alladin looks like it'll easily open below Solo, and won't be as direct competition as Solo either.

 

The downside for Endgame is that it got competition sooner (though keeping Imax screens this weekend was a big win).  The upshot is that it'll be the only movie 'in its lane' going into Memorial day, while IW arguably had two other movies in the same lane as it, and those movies were much bigger openers than the movies that Endgame is facing.

 

[DAJK]

Business at my theatre pretty much lines up with what Asgardians have said. Didn't have previews here, and it's looking at just over our equivalent of 14M for Friday

[infamous5445]

I'm cool with TFA being the domestic king, Avatar being the OS king, and Endgame being the WW king.

[UserHN]

16 minutes ago, blackspider said:

A local theater I track has Pika getting the matinee Dolby shows and then Avengers gets the night shows. It looked to be the wrong move on the GM’s part because Pikachu is killing it here. This is a very Asain heavy area so they should’ve been more aware of their demographics unless Disney forced their hand.

It's not doing that great in Asia's 3 largest markets. Just so-so in Japan and China. And outright flopping in South Korea.

[Cappoedameron]

Pikachu Saturday is probably gonna be about a 25. So it'll be at 45 million. I don't see Sunday getting a measly 8 million so I think it's safe to say Pikachu is beating it's tracking.

[#ED]

25 minutes ago, MrPink said:

No matter how low the Pokemon number gets, it could not disappoint me any harder than what transpired tonight.

 

It could make $5.7m this weekend and it'd still disappoint me less

 

What transpired again?