Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[keysersoze123]

Just now, John Marston said:

So do you think it’s going down closer to 16m or still 17.5m-18?

Look at his previous post. He think RTH is right bcos Charlie gets snapshot at a point vs real time trend that RTH can see.

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think $52-53mn weekend for Pika (20 18 14) and $70mn Approx for EG (18 30 22)

Aww

[Darth Lehnsherr]

So Endgame may end up close to Ultron's legs. Again doesn't matter that much when your OW is $357M. Makes me think this may have been way more frontloaded (Civil War or worse levels) had reception had been more tepid. 

 

Hope Pika gets into the $60M range but can't see how it gets into the $70M range with that Fri number.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Darth Lehnsherr

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well, 870 or so would be great legs if it had opened to a shocking 320 or something. Guess we can’t have our cake and eat it too here.    

 

Think China will win the 1B single market race now, maybe Avengers 6 or so can take another stab at it.

The way I see it, $515mn after 1st weekend, only 4 films have managed till date. TFA, Avatar, Titanic and Black Panther.

 

In comparison other 200 openers

TA 416

JW 450

A:IW 421

TLJ 400

[MattW]

GotG2 did 16.5 on Friday May 12th, added 207 from that weekend to the end. Puts Endgame at 867

[Legion Again]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

So Endgame may end up close to Ultron's legs. Again doesn't matter that much when your OW is $357M. Makes me think this may have been way more frontloaded (Civil War or worse levels) had reception had been more tepid. 

If it was just A CS probably DH2-esque.      

 

End of a decade of serialized storytelling met incredible reception, result medium legs. Makes sense. #1 WW crown is more than enough, especially since it seemed hilariously out of reach for essentially all of the 2010s.

[ScoobyDoo21]

What was GOTG2's weekend box office off of that 16.5? and do you think Endgame can reach it?

Edited May 11, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[keysersoze123]

cannot compare with movies that grossed sub 400m with Endgame which has grossed 660m already. There is definitely not unlimited demand. Plus I know there are audience who would never see SH movies. They consider them to be ridiculous and for young kids/teens.

 

That said if the MCU remains at the same level and next series with XMen should have 400/1B/3 B OS/4B WW run( I sound like Kal making Jugger naut predictions 🙂 ).

[JonathanLB]

Hmm, $18M would be quite good I think for Endgame. $16M, not bad, just... kinda there. I would think anything around $18M would be a very solid increase from Thursday, but perhaps too much to expect. It's early yet, though, there are a whole wave of shows on the West Coast at 10 p.m. so you never know. 

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Hmm, $18M would be quite good I think for Endgame. $16M, not bad, just... kinda there. I would think anything around $18M would be a very solid increase from Thursday, but perhaps too much to expect. It's early yet, though, there are a whole wave of shows on the West Coast at 10 p.m. so you never know. 

Yes but RTH is pretty accurate

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Hmm, $18M would be quite good I think for Endgame. $16M, not bad, just... kinda there. I would think anything around $18M would be a very solid increase from Thursday, but perhaps too much to expect. It's early yet, though, there are a whole wave of shows on the West Coast at 10 p.m. so you never know. 

Problem look at bay area is there is not much demand after 930PM. Even at Alamo Drafthouse where shows sell out easily its like only 20-25% full for 1030PM show. Its not as bad as yesterday where late shows are dead but its still very low. This movie being a 3 hour juggernaut makes it not so attractive after initial weekends when there is see at all cost at any time mindset.

 

Anyway you should happy that SW7 remains domestic king for another 2.5 years at worst or even longer.

[DeeCee]

Title updated. 

 

Check recommended posts. 

[Biggestgeekever]

Unfortunate that DP is looking to be another miss for videogame adaptations (though admittedly less so than many), it's gonna clearly take several very well received films critically and commercially before audiences are willing to go to one en masse.

 

$16M for Endgame isn't surprising given how the gap between it and IW and has shrunk considerably over the week, and a stronger Sat increase should still keep it in the mid to high 60s for the weekend. Even with no competition close to Deadpool 2 for it, I'd expect the extra frontloading to keep it close to IW, and post Memorial Day it won't be able to match its drops, so $850M-$860M is likely the range for Endgame domestically.

[KJsooner]

I’m going with the 18 million dollar total. That would put the 70 mil 3rd weekend in the bank.

[BK007]

Disappointing that the awful TFA reigns supreme. 

 

Benefitted from the perfect Xmas schedule to get many people who wouldn't be interested to give it a chance. 

 

Hopefully ROS continues the downward trend.

 

 

[BK007]

6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Unfortunate that DP is looking to be another miss for videogame adaptations (though admittedly less so than many), it's gonna clearly take several very well received films critically and commercially before audiences are willing to go to one en masse.

 

$16M for Endgame isn't surprising given how the gap between it and IW and has shrunk considerably over the week, and a stronger Sat increase should still keep it in the mid to high 60s for the weekend. Even with no competition close to Deadpool 2 for it, I'd expect the extra frontloading to keep it close to IW, and post Memorial Day it won't be able to match its drops, so $850M-$860M is likely the range for Endgame domestically.

 

Yep, I don't think it'll have great legs, but after the WB marketing and Pokemon Go craze, this can only launch to $50m? That's pathetic TBH. 

 

It hasn't grown or expanded from the first movie way back in 1999. 

[VanillaSkies]

 

This lines up pretty well with RTH.
AEG is slightly ahead on true Friday, but with previews there would be a 4 million or so advantage to DP.

[Rumpot]

IW made 16M on 3rd Friday so from here on would expect slightly worse legs than IW.  Probably gonna finish 830-840M range in that case.  IW made 130M after this weekend so I think 115-120 for EG likely

[doublejack]

43 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

I am not sure if 900 was going to be a thing since Endgame's 2nd weekend. Everyone of their audience has already watched the movie and i think Pikachu might fine enough so i think this weekend might be a photo finish.

I agree on the first point. Endgame needed a bigger 2nd weekend to stay on track for 900M and make a run at TFA. At this point it needs more like a 90M 3rd weekend, which obviously will not happen. If the 2nd weekend were closer to 180M the story would be different.

 

On your second point, though, Pika has no chance at taking the weekend. I think it'll be a good 10-15M+ behind in 2nd place. I looked at several theaters in my area and not only does Endgame have more PLF showings but it has more regular 2D digital showings as well, despite the longer runtime. Endgame should get about 70M this weekend, and Pika will be closer to 50M.

 

My question is, will Pika beat adjusted Mortal Kombat? MK has a 48M OW adjusted and a 145M total.

[IceFire9yt]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

IW made 16M on 3rd Friday so from here on would expect slightly worse legs than IW.  Probably gonna finish 830-840M range in that case.  IW made 130M after this weekend so I think 115-120 for EG likely

The main difference is that Endgame is currently facing competition with Pikachu, while next weekend IW will be the one with the big competition in Deadpool 2.