Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[RamblinRed]

Next weekend is going to be fun to follow as it is going to be something of a blood bath.

Last year you had 3 new openers (1 wide) that grossed a combined 18M.

This year you are going to have 3 new wide openers that could gross $120M plus an over performing Aladdin (compared to the under performing Solo).

Alot of movies are going to take big hits to their theater/screen counts next weekend and the 3 newbies are going to have to fight it out with Aladdin for eyeballs.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

2.35x the 4-day (116.85) gives ALADDIN 275 dom

That 116.85 is less impressive than or less better judge then the later part of the weekend i.e. Sunday and Monday. Just like $40mn Monday for BP would be better judge than $75mn Friday or $200mn weekend it had for legs. $25.5mn Monday is very big.

A 7-7.5x Monday, post Monday, compared to 6x and 6.06x of Solo and PoTC 5 i.e. $295-308mn.

[JimiQ]

9 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Next weekend is going to be fun to follow as it is going to be something of a blood bath.

Last year you had 3 new openers (1 wide) that grossed a combined 18M.

This year you are going to have 3 new wide openers that could gross $120M plus an over performing Aladdin (compared to the under performing Solo).

Alot of movies are going to take big hits to their theater/screen counts next weekend and the 3 newbies are going to have to fight it out with Aladdin for eyeballs.

I think one of the three movies will get (at least partially) fucked. Ma and Rocketman can leg it out, but Godzilla probably can't

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I'm curious to what people had Aladdin for the Summer Game

[charlie Jatinder]

Thinking optimistically

 

116.85

11 (-57%)

7.25 (-34%)

6.6 (-9%)

 

12.25 (+85%)

19 (+55%)

14.5 (-23%) // 45.75 (-50%)

 

[AlexMA]

33 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Thinking optimistically

 

116.85

11 (-57%)

7.25 (-34%)

6.6 (-9%)

 

12.25 (+85%)

19 (+55%)

14.5 (-23%) // 45.75 (-50%)

 

That would be an incredible hold post-Memorial Day weekend.

[a2k]

300+ non-CBM doms over 3 years 2016-2018.

 

SW8 620 Disney

BATB 502 Disney

DORY 486 Disney

JW:FK 418 Uni

JUM2 405 Sony

SLOP 368 Uni

TJB 364 Disney

ZOOTP 341 Disney

IT 327 Warner

 

ALADDIN could be the first one this year. TS4 and TLK maybe (ow ). FROZEN2 too. All Disney.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by a2k

[TwoMisfits]

54 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Thinking optimistically

 

116.85

11 (-57%)

7.25 (-34%)

6.6 (-9%)

 

12.25 (+85%)

19 (+55%)

14.5 (-23%) // 45.75 (-50%)

 

I don't think it's not gonna hold that well...DOM openers have become 5 day affairs (Fri-Tues), and legs are usually indicated only starting on 1st Wednesday...so while Sun/Mon are great, that could be just as much a "we hit the pool on Saturday, so let's do the movies Sunday" than it is a leg indication...

 

Not to mention - the loss of the expensive screens and probably the overall loss of showings b/c of the tightness of theaters...and the competition opening for different parts of this film's fanbase...

 

A good hold (or more specifically, one you all will find as a good hold, since under 60% would be a good hold) will be rough for weekend #2...

[filmlover]

It opened the weekend after Memorial Day weekend but Maleficent dropped just over 50% in its second weekend against $75M+ worth of openers and 46% in its third against $105M+ worth of openers before experiencing drops between 22% to 35% over the next month after that and all signs are pointing to audiences enjoying Aladdin more. I wouldn't be surprised if it held up and stayed around for the summer in similar fashion. $300M+ is happening.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It will. I am expecting $300mn Dom and $500mn Overseas.

YES!!!!!!!!!

[jedijake]

I'm excited about the rebound of Aladdin from projections and the great WOM, but I think that $300 million domestic is pushing it a bit. That's just because of the competition from SLOP2, TS4, and later TLK. If not for the comp, I'd say yes.

[RamblinRed]

Last year most movies (Solo being a big exception) were sub 40% drop for the weekend after Memorial Day. This year I have a hard time with any movies not having sub 50% drops.

Just too many movies competing for space and too many screens will have to be taken away for the newcomers. Wouldn't shock me if at least 1 newcomer under performs given how competitive the market should be (I have no idea which one would be the most likely).

 

on the good side the weekend on the whole should be much higher than last year.

[syntaxerror]

Am I the only one that thinks that Aladdin can pull a Jumanji considering it’s amazing WOM? Not necessarily increase in the second weekend but have a very small drop and amazing legs beyond expected multipliers. 

[filmlover]

Just now, RamblinRed said:

Last year most movies (Solo being a big exception) were sub 40% drop for the weekend after Memorial Day. This year I have a hard time with any movies not having sub 50% drops.

Just too many movies competing for space and too many screens will have to be taken away for the newcomers. Wouldn't shock me if at least 1 newcomer under performs given how competitive the market should be (I have no idea which one would be the most likely).

 

on the good side the weekend on the whole should be much higher than last year.

Rocketman is shaping up to be the actual breakout of the group, so it could come down to either Godzilla or Ma (although the expectations for that are modest already) underperforming.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 minute ago, syntaxerror said:

Am I the only one that thinks that Aladdin can pull a Jumanji considering it’s amazing WOM? Not necessarily increase in the second weekend but have a very small drop and amazing legs beyond expected multipliers. 

no. already called 300-400m on Friday.

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Am I the only one that thinks that Aladdin can pull a Jumanji considering it’s amazing WOM? Not necessarily increase in the second weekend but have a very small drop and amazing legs beyond expected multipliers. 

Let’s wait a few weeks and see, it’s only 4 days into its run and it was a holiday weekend. 

[vafrow]

42 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It opened the weekend after Memorial Day weekend but Maleficent dropped just over 50% in its second weekend against $75M+ worth of openers and 46% in its third against $105M+ worth of openers before experiencing drops between 22% to 35% over the next month after that and all signs are pointing to audiences enjoying Aladdin more. I wouldn't be surprised if it held up and stayed around for the summer in similar fashion. $300M+ is happening.

 

Especially since there isn't much in theatres for families. The lukewarm reception to the trailers may have held people off their opening weekend, and now that word of mouth is kicking in, there's plenty of room for it succeed. 

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That 116.85 is less impressive than or less better judge then the later part of the weekend i.e. Sunday and Monday. Just like $40mn Monday for BP would be better judge than $75mn Friday or $200mn weekend it had for legs. $25.5mn Monday is very big.

A 7-7.5x Monday, post Monday, compared to 6x and 6.06x of Solo and PoTC 5 i.e. $295-308mn.

4

That high?

 

Would be quite impressive if it grossed above 300m considering how low the predictions went.

[Krissykins]

http://bit.ly/2ECK2H4

 

Variety’s cover story with Chris Hemsworth.

 

Ghostbusters (2016) is one of his favourite roles  He also credits it with making audiences more accepting of a sillier version of Thor (agreed). 

 

I’m glad it’s one of his favourites. 

 

Very candid interview in relation to his rotten efforts (Huntsman, Blackhat). Nice to see an actor being so frank. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It will. I am expecting $300mn Dom and $500mn Overseas.

That would be a great multiplier overseas after a $121m weekend. 

 

But Japan could be huge because it has songs in it.