Weekend Thread: Downton Abbey 31M, Ad Astra 19.2M Rambo 19M, It2 17.2M, Hustlers 17M

[Legion Again]

1

DOWNTON ABBEY Focus Features 3,079

$13,830,000 -- / $4,492 $13,830,000 / 1

$9,580,000 -30.7% / $3,111 $23,410,000 / 2

$7,590,000 -20.8% / $2,465 $31,000,000 / 3

 

 

Uhhhh.... is this a realistic Sunday? Doesn’t look very realistic to me 🤔

[Blaze Heatnix]

Any overseas numbers for Rambo?

[TalismanRing]

17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

1

DOWNTON ABBEY Focus Features 3,079

$13,830,000 -- / $4,492 $13,830,000 / 1

$9,580,000 -30.7% / $3,111 $23,410,000 / 2

$7,590,000 -20.8% / $2,465 $31,000,000 / 3

 

 

Uhhhh.... is this a realistic Sunday? Doesn’t look very realistic to me 🤔

Maybe.  Unless it's an issue of severe front loading v the core audience being more inclined toward morning, afternoon, early evening heavy shows then Sunday  won't be as harsh a drop since later shows were already weak on Saturday.

[Maxmoser3]

Downton Abbey’s debut is quite solid! TV adaptations to films are quite a difficult gamble. Entourage is an example of it as well as Sex And The City 2 although that was sequel that no one was screaming about. However there have been some pluses such as Beavis & Butthead Do America or Sex And The City: The Movie both did really well in their theatrical runs!

 

Downton Abbey may be hit hard in the next few weeks, it may not. It’s domestic total for now should make $85-$90 million domestic.

 

Ad Astra in the estimates snuck past Rambo, however it’s higher budget may put the film in hurt. However Brad Pitt isn’t in doom and gloom, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is almost $350 million worldwide!

 

Rambo: Last Blood didn’t explode anything for the weekend. It’s debut was one of Sylvester Stallone’s better action film debuts since The Expendables 2. However when ticket price inflation is adjusted this is the lowest-grossing debut in the Rambo franchise. 

 

IT 2 dropping down which is typical for a horror sequel. $215-$225 million is likely for it. 

 

Hustlers had a decent drop, and should play well for the next few weeks. $100 million should happen for it.

[Krissykins]

Excellent and surprising for Downton Abbey. 
 

Ok openings for Ad Astra and Rambo, middling pta’s though. 
 

Ok for IT 2, considering the adult competition. Great for Hustlers. 

[Valonqar]

Hustlers hold is great and 100M is happening and so is Jen's nomination. 

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I think Downton could do an America set sequel which I know is very cliche for film adaptations of TV series but give one of the characters is American, it wouldn't be too hard to come up with a plot that's set in 1929 during The Great Depression.

i think the sequel should be about an evil businessman wants to close downton abbey and build a mall there, so they've got to put on a rock festival to save the abbey. idk just spitballing. 

[Johnny Tran]

Hustlers hold looks average to me. There is literally nothing else hitting the demo.  It's a win all around but certainly not the juggernaut it's been made out to be. 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Hustlers hold looks average to me. There is literally nothing else hitting the demo.  It's a win all around but certainly not the juggernaut it's been made out to be. 

Yeah it's not a juggernaut imo. That would be CRA, BR, ASIB. Hustlers should end up well below Girls Trip and even Bad Moms. But it over-performed in the ow and even if it continues having only average holds, will have done great compared to it's prod budget. See how movies like Kitchen can go wrong box office wise.

 

STX had Upside early this year and this might match that at the bo. Upside's prod budget was 37.5 compared to Hustler's 20.

 

STX Doms

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open
1	Bad Moms	STX	$113,257,297	3,215	$23,817,340	3,215	7/29/16
2	The Upside	STX	$108,252,517	3,568	$20,355,000	3,080	1/11/19
3	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX	$72,110,659	3,615	$16,759,161	3,615	11/1/17

[narniadis]

That Sunday for Downton is silly.... will be much closer to -30%. 

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Uhhhh.... is this a realistic Sunday? Doesn’t look very realistic to me

 

 

That number is likely too high, but wasn't the breakdown something like 70% female and 60% over 35 or something like that? Not exactly a lot of NFL fans. 

 

It doesn't seem to have been a strong late night player either on Friday or Saturday, so at the very least there's a chance it'll have a better Sunday hold than most other films.

[DAJK]

That sunday may be unrealistic, but to be fair in my experience of "old people movies", they do INSANE business on Sunday matinees, and the first Sunday evening shows play like Saturday evening (late shows are dead, but they are on Saturday too).

 

I've had a lot of old people movies (Book Club and Mama Mia 2 come to mind) where Sunday was the highest grossing day of their opening weekend at my theatre. 

[Legion Again]

It’s got the demographics to hold better than most other movies on Sun, but 20% vs 30-40% is a huge difference and that flat Sat looks foreboding.

[Old Spice]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

1

DOWNTON ABBEY Focus Features 3,079

$13,830,000 -- / $4,492 $13,830,000 / 1

$9,580,000 -30.7% / $3,111 $23,410,000 / 2

$7,590,000 -20.8% / $2,465 $31,000,000 / 3

 

 

Uhhhh.... is this a realistic Sunday? Doesn’t look very realistic to me 🤔

Yeah, that seems like a crazy small drop, but having just come out of it, I can see now why the audience score on RT is 96%. This film knows it demo and REALLY delivers the goods. I expect the weekday holds to be excellent as well as WOM spreads.

[Maxmoser3]

September almost towards the record! 

[Barnack]

On 9/21/2019 at 5:25 PM, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Thank you for the info. 

Where can I find more data on TV spot spends?

 

There not much more out there than the variety top spending, but more and more marketing is being spend outside TV spots.

[Hatebox]

Mildly shocked at that Downton number. I knew it had a cult in America but I didn't think that translated to 31m on an OW. 

[a2k]

We could have another 30+ ow this weekend if Abominable over-performs. It's expected to do low-20s if not more. That would make it 4 different weekends in September with 30+ openings.

[sabrecmc]

My mom and aunt saw DA twice this weekend and want to go again.  They loved it.  Definitely a movie that gets its target audience.

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, sabrecmc said:

My mom and aunt saw DA twice this weekend and want to go again.  They loved it.  Definitely a movie that gets its target audience.

did they forget they already saw it once. that sun hold makes sense.