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Eric Quinn

FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)

By Eric Quinn, in Numbers and Data

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Reminding everyone, The Grinch did 30x previews.

Are you doing a straight regular Math formula for presales so far today to get ending numbers for today?

 

I ask b/c evening "prime time" showings are pretty much sellouts now, so already presold and unlikely to go higher...while daytime matinees are going mostly unattended (thanks to school), and late night shows probably won't fill like a normal PG-13 skewing type movie...

 

I just don't want a huge number, and then everyone says "what went wrong" when it comes in $5-7M under, b/c it literally couldn't go higher based on the way the day sets up...

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I ask b/c evening "prime time" showings are pretty much sellouts now, so already presold and unlikely to go higher...while daytime matinees are going mostly unattended

now that's case with all films. Night pre-sales make huge chunk of reported number. I am going very conservative with numbers. If it play like TS4, it will hit 47, while TLK will be seeing it at 40. Going toward a lower end. At end of day, this is projection, not actuals.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

now that's case with all films. Night pre-sales make huge chunk of reported number. I am going very conservative with numbers. If it play like TS4, it will hit 47, while TLK will be seeing it at 40. Going toward a lower end. At end of day, this is projection, not actuals.

If it plays like TS4 

:ohmygod::ohmygod:

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Eric Quinn Global Phenomenon

Eric Quinn

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-dolittle-and-bad-boys-for-life-hope-to-anchor-a-strong-mlk-weekend-in-january/

 

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/27/2019 Knives Out $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $18,500,000 3% $75,000,000 – $105,000,000 6% 3,300* Lionsgate
11/27/2019 Queen & Slim $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,500,000   $23,000,000 – $33,000,000   1,500* Universal
12/6/2019 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $4,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000   2,000 STX
12/13/2019 Black Christmas $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $28,000,000 – $38,000,000     Universal
12/13/2019 Jumanji: The Next Level $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $50,000,000 -29% $225,000,000 – $275,000,000     Sony / Columbia
12/13/2019 Richard Jewell $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $60,000,000 – $80,000,000     Warner Bros.
12/20/2019 Cats $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $60,000,000 – $120,000,000     Universal
12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 $200,000,000   $550,000,000 – $750,000,000     Disney / Lucasfilm
12/20/2019 Bombshell (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000     Lionsgate
12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 $20,000,000   $80,000,000 – $120,000,000     Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 $16,000,000   $70,000,000 – $110,000,000     Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019 Uncut Gems   n/a         A24
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000     Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 $21,000,000   $75,000,000 – $100,000,000     Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 The Informer n/a n/a   n/a     Aviron
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $50,000,000 – $70,000,000     Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $45,000,000 – $60,000,000     Paramount
1/10/2020 My Spy $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $7,500,000   $20,000,000 – $30,000,000     STX
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000     Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 NEW   Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000 NEW $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 NEW   Universal
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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

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17 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
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Going for $43mn Approx True Friday for now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

littlefoot GIF

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