No1Curr Weekend Thread: Playmobil $660K OW, one of the lowest in history for 2,000+ theaters

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

I thought this was supposed to bomb horribly cause the director killed Star Wars.

I...don't think anyone was saying that. At least not here at BOT.

[misafeco]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I thought this was supposed to bomb horribly cause the director killed Star Wars.

If SW8 would've been actually a good movie, KO would make blockbuster numbers. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

If that KO number hold that would be one of the best drop for a movie that opened at Thanksgiving, even Coco dropped 46%.   

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-gretel-and-hansel-the-rhythm-section/

 

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
12/13/2019	Black Christmas	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$14,000,000		$30,000,000 – $40,000,000	$37,700,000		Universal
12/13/2019	Jumanji: The Next Level	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$44,000,000	-12%	$225,000,000 – $275,000,000	$210,000,000	-21%	Sony / Columbia
12/13/2019	Richard Jewell	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000		$60,000,000 – $80,000,000	$80,000,000		Warner Bros.
12/20/2019	Cats	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$14,000,000		$60,000,000 – $120,000,000	$69,000,000	-8%	Universal
12/20/2019	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	$185,000,000 – $225,000,000	$200,000,000		$550,000,000 – $750,000,000	$680,000,000		Disney / Lucasfilm
12/20/2019	Bombshell (Wide Expansion)	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,000,000	20%	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$40,000,000		Lionsgate
12/25/2019	Little Women (2019)	$16,000,000 – $26,000,000	$20,000,000		$80,000,000 – $120,000,000	$100,000,000		Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019	Spies in Disguise	$13,000,000 – $23,000,000	$16,000,000		$70,000,000 – $110,000,000	$80,000,000		Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019	Uncut Gems (Wide)		n/a			n/a		A24
1/3/2020	The Grudge (2020)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$14,000,000		$25,000,000 – $45,000,000	$32,000,000		Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020	1917 (Wide)	$20,000,000 – $25,000,000	$23,000,000	10%	$75,000,000 – $100,000,000	$90,000,000	10%	Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020	Just Mercy (Wide)	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	$14,000,000		$50,000,000 – $70,000,000	$59,000,000		Warner Bros.
1/10/2020	Like a Boss	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$17,000,000		$45,000,000 – $60,000,000	$51,000,000		Paramount
1/10/2020	Underwater	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,500,000		$12,000,000 – $25,000,000	$18,000,000		Fox
1/17/2020	Bad Boys for Life	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000	$25,000,000		$55,000,000 – $75,000,000	$64,000,000		Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020	Dolittle	$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$40,000,000		$120,000,000 – $170,000,000	$145,000,000		Universal
1/24/2020	The Gentlemen	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$38,000,000		STX
1/24/2020	The Last Full Measure		n/a			n/a		Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020	Run		n/a			n/a		Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020	The Turning	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$14,000,000		$25,000,000 – $40,000,000	$38,000,000		Universal
1/31/2020	Gretel and Hansel	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$5,500,000	NEW	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$11,000,000	NEW	United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020	The Rhythm Section	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$38,000,000	NEW	Paramount

[Porthos]

(On iPad so can’t easily cut and quote just the Jumanji number)

 

That’s the second downgrade BOP has given The Next Level.  Oof.

[a2k]

IT2 could end up as the only movie in 200 range this year.

[filmlover]

They also just increased 1917's wide opening prediction by 10%. Do think that could become a surprise $100M+ grosser as a rare-these-days major Oscar contender that also promises big screen spectacle.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

IT2 could end up as the only movie in 200 range this year.

Weird year overall so it makes sad sense. 

[The Panda]

36 minutes ago, misafeco said:

If SW8 would've been actually a good movie, KO would make blockbuster numbers. 

I think you mean, KO is doing great numbers because TLJ is a pop-art masterpiece

[MattW]

I think under 40 for jumanji.

[Boxofficerules]

14 minutes ago, MattW said:

I think under 40 for jumanji.

And over 40 for Black Christmas?

 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

IT2 could end up as the only movie in 200 range this year.

Who needs 200-300 when you have 350-550 instead  

[Legion Again]

The long range total for Jumanji is 15M under the low end of the long range range, @Shawn. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Who needs 200-300 when you have 350-550 instead  

 

People who don't wants to see only one company surviving the streamings war certainly needs more medium hits.  

[Ryan Reynolds]

how can Jumanji: The Next Level drop that much? it should do Aquaman numbers domestic

[Yandereprime101189]

Playbombil

 

Also come next week, I see Jumanji hitting the higher end of expectations. I'm personally predicting 63 million.

 

Also HOORAY FOR FROZEN!!! MAKE DAT ICE

Edited December 7, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

how can Jumanji: The Next Level drop that much? it should do Aquaman numbers domestic

An extremely leggy (thus we can assume quite liked/good wom) first entry and a quietly timed sequel do tend to hold up nicely but something like a Jurassic World 2 from Jurassic World would not be that special, and that give us domestic:

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Jurassic-Park#tab=summary

 

417,719,760/652,270,625*404,508,916 = 259 millions dbo.

[bcf26]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

IT2 could end up as the only movie in 200 range this year.

Are you ignoring Cats?

I hear people saying Cats will be the highest grossing horror movie of the year.

[narniadis]

22 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

how can Jumanji: The Next Level drop that much? it should do Aquaman numbers domestic

Sequels holding well or increasing is the exception not the rule. Do a lot of Comic movies do that, yes, but a lot do not. Jumanji as a family action comedy the likelihood of a great hold is even harder given historical data, and the presales and tracking just do not support it. China is also showing that its not going to play like the first which really was a lightning in a bottle situation. 

225-250 is my expectation if it opens high enough, but that would require at least a 50m opening which doesnt look likely right now. 

Comedy sequels have a worse track record overall so at least the idea of pulling a Ted 2 isnt an option (or Hangover 3). 

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, narniadis said:

China is also showing that its not going to play like the first which really was a lightning in a bottle situation. 

Not that China serves as a super great indication of DOM, but the details for those who don’t frequent the China section:   
Jumanji 2 opened with $39M and ended about $78M   
Jumanji 3 has gotten much worse ratings and will probably open about $25M and end with around the first one’s OW, if not less

Edited December 7, 2019 by Arendelle Legion