THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

Yes, Endgame's OW is the craziest thing we've ever seen from an OW. It beat the previous record by over 38%. It will probably last longer than 5 years, but it will fall as well (again, unless viewing habits move away from OW).

In 2009, when the OW record was $158m, would you have ever predicted anything would beat that by almost $200m by the end of the 2010's? Nope. No one would have or did. So lets see what happens, because we have no idea what could come. 

Obviously it will fall at some point down the line, that is guaranteed.  But I don't see how this lasts less than at least 10 years.

 

The thing to remember is that of the 7 $200m+ OW's, two of them are Star Wars movies, and 3 of them are Avengers movies, with another MCU movie thrown in.  That's most of it from 2 franchises, both of which are pretty much done for a while.    

 

There's always the possibility of a big shocker, but it would require either old franchise returning (TFA/JW) or a franchise building and building over a decade into a juggernaut and capping it off with a huge finale (MCU/HP).

 

I'm not sure if there are any current franchise that are currently setting themselves up like that, and I don't know what beloved franchise could return in the next 5 years to blow the doors open.

 

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

A few tenths of a percent higher for JP2 over Batman Forever. 

 

And would be above 41% if they counted Thursday previews the way they do now. Lost World made $2.5M on Thursday that was counted separate from the weekend. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by redfirebird2008

[Fullbuster]

I told a few days ago that TROS might be the opposite of TLJ: hated by critics, loved by the audience. 

 

Sounds like I was right:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Fullbuster

[doublejack]

7 minutes ago, SofNascimento said:

So I just dropped by parachute but let me ask: what are the odds this Star Wars make less money than TLJ?

DOM? I think like 90%. There's a good 75% chance in my view that TRoS falls short of 600M DOM assuming an OW in the 190M range. A better than 3x multi with how front loaded movies of this nature are is a tall ask, even during this time of year.

[Mekanos]

9 minutes ago, SofNascimento said:

So I just dropped by parachute but let me ask: what are the odds this Star Wars make less money than TLJ?

It's always a trip to see other ResetERA posters on this site. There are dozens of us!

 

Also, it's very likely.

[IcaroRibeiro]

17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

List below. It definitely changed pretty frequently through the years. Would have changed even more often with Friday releases for films like Independence Day, Phantom Menace, Spider-Man 2, Revenge of the Sith, and maybe others. I don't think we are gonna see anything top Endgame for a long time. 

 

 

1989 - Batman ($40M)

1992 - Batman Returns ($45M)
1993 - Jurassic Park ($47M)

1995 - Batman Forever ($52M)
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($72M)

2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($90M)

2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($115M)

2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($135M)

2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($151M)

2008 - Dark Knight ($158M)

2011 - Potter: DH2 ($169M)

2012 - Avengers ($207M)

2015 - Jurassic World ($209M)

2015 - Force Awakens ($248M) 

2018 - Infinity War ($258M)

2019 - A: Endgame ($357M)

 

Do you have a list of average price of a ticket by year? I'll rewrite this adjusted to 2018 numbers

[Lordmandeep]

By this point TLJ audience score was cratering right? 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

 

Do you have a list of average price of a ticket by year? I'll rewrite this adjusted to 2018 numbers

 

Towards the bottom of this page: 

 

https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP?ref_=mojo_cso_md#inflation

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

By this point TLJ audience score was catering right? 

By trolls, it’s the reason RT requires verification of ticket purchase to post a review now 

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, doublejack said:

The comparison is not laughable, but what is laughable is dismissing TFA's performance as a on-off that could not be repeated or even come close to. Sorry, that logic doesn't work. TPM had the same kind of buzz about it, possibly even more so because it was being done by the master himself, and it did do very well. The other two films in that trilogy weren't left completely in the dust, though, they even had bigger OWs. This trilogy is simply not as good and the numbers are backing that up.

 

I'm also not being crazy calling TRoS < TLJ at this point. The OW is a lock, and the overall run is way better than 50/50 to play out that way. Without a 200M OW I doubt TRoS gets to 600M DOM.

TPM and TFA are a fairer comparison definitely in how anticipated they were. 
 

Each to their own, but if we’re now getting into thoughts on the new trilogy not being as good as the prequel trilogy - I can’t even converse on that. I just haven’t got it in me. 
 

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, The Panda said:

By trolls, it’s the reason RT requires verification of ticket purchase to post a review now 

 

Trolls definitely trashed TLJ's audience ratings on various websites, but can't blame the trolls for a crappy 2.8 multiplier with Christmas/New Years holiday boost. I think the Skywalker movie has a pretty decent chance of pulling a 3x multiplier and it doesn't even need great WOM to get it. 

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

By trolls, it’s the reason RT requires verification of ticket purchase to post a review now 

 

 

Well be honest the discussion on this forum was far more toxic last year. 

[baumer]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Fair enough, they're both phenomenal, and Phoenix is definitely a more flashy performance, but Driver I felt just perfectly captured the heartbreak and trauma (as did Johanssen).

 

My parents also went through a rough divorce this year, and I think seeing Driver just made me see a lot of my own dad, and I know first hand what that is like and I just thought Driver was absolutely perfect with the material. Not to bag on Phoenix

Hey brother. I'm sorry that your parents are going through or went through a divorce. It must be hard on you. I went through it myself as a teenager. So even though it was a hundred years ago for me lol I do empathize with you and I'm sorry that you have to deal with this. on a brighter note Merry Christmas to you and your family and I hope the holidays are good to you and as many ways as possible.

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

 

Do you have a list of average price of a ticket by year? I'll rewrite this adjusted to 2018 numbers

https://filmrust.com/calculator/
 

Also you can see earlier OW records in Barnack and I’s posts on the last page or two.

[Mekanos]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Trolls definitely trashed TLJ's audience ratings on various websites, but can't blame the trolls for a crappy 2.8 multiplier with Christmas/New Years holiday boost. I think the Skywalker movie has a pretty decent chance of pulling a 3x multiplier and it doesn't even need great WOM to get it. 

Yeah, I think having a deflated opening means 3x is on the table. No way to know for sure though.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[ZackM]

12 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

By this point TLJ audience score was cratering right? 

It was at 57% Friday evening.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

19 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Obviously it will fall at some point down the line, that is guaranteed.  But I don't see how this lasts less than at least 10 years.

 

The thing to remember is that of the 7 $200m+ OW's, two of them are Star Wars movies, and 3 of them are Avengers movies, with another MCU movie thrown in.  That's most of it from 2 franchises, both of which are pretty much done for a while.    

 

There's always the possibility of a big shocker, but it would require either old franchise returning (TFA/JW) or a franchise building and building over a decade into a juggernaut and capping it off with a huge finale (MCU/HP).

 

I'm not sure if there are any current franchise that are currently setting themselves up like that, and I don't know what beloved franchise could return in the next 5 years to blow the doors open.

 

 

Like I said, oh Deepest of Wangs, we never saw it coming in 2009 either. I mean, we're talking through 2029 here. We should be onto the Endgame equivalent of the next saga in the MCU by then. Why not whatever that film is? You could even feed nostalgia into that one that you couldn't do with the Infinity Saga! RDJ back? Cap returning?! Who knows! 

Or maybe a Harry Potter film with the the OG cast (although Rowling is slowly killing her own franchise, TFA showed us that nostalgia can burn through an overzealous creator).

I'll call it now, we will see a $500m domestic OW by December 30, 2029!

Edited December 20, 2019 by VenomXXR

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Like I said, oh Deepest of Wangs, we never saw it coming in 2009 either. I mean, we're talking through 2029 here. We should be onto the Endgame equivalent of the next saga in the MCU by then. Why not whatever that film is? You could even feed nostalgia into that one that you couldn't do with the Infinity Saga! RDJ back? Cap returning?! Who knows! 

Or maybe a Harry Potter film with the the OG cast (although Rowling is slowly killing her own franchise, TFA showed us that nostalgia can burn through an overzealous creator).

I'll call it now, we will see a $500m domestic OW by December 30, 2029!

 

If that does happen, one wonders just how frontloaded the box office market will be by that point. 

[The Futurist]

Websites with grading systems are changing their rules to protect the big brands and franchises of the entertainment industry.

It's a conspiracy.

[stuart360]

I think Endgames OW will last longer than usual. I mean what on the horizon could possibly beat it?, AVATAR 2?, its not that kind of movie. Superhero films are the no.1 grossers now, and Endgame was the ending to a hugely successful 22 film series, it had everyhting in its favour.

Edited December 20, 2019 by stuart360