Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[AN9815]

I don't consider TROS numbers bad but they are pretty disappointing for what they could have been. The end of this Star Wars trilogy (after first one opened to $248,0m) and it should have done much better than what it is doing. The numbers are good and almost any blockbuster would dream to have them ($177m OW / $525-575m DOM / $1.05-1.15b WW). It is like Avengers: Endgame doing $200m OW / $500m DOM / $1.4b WW after Infinity War numbers and all the Infinity Saga or Deathly Hollows Part 2 doing something like $125m OW / $280m DOM / $950m WW after all the build up. Obviously those would not be flops for the studios and they would end up earning money back for them but they would be really disappointed for what they could have been. To me this feels like another Mockingjay-Part 1/2 situation (although both cases are because of different reasons), Hunger Games and Catching Fire were so huge that the finale doing only $281m DOM felt really sad. 

[Minnale101]

25 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I'd easily argue Jurassic World is now bigger than Star Wars worldwide. Not only was JW2 able to do the same numbers as TLJ worldwide despite its predecessor finishing $400m below TFA. 

 

In terms of raw appeal to people around the world, Jurassic World is more attractive.

Yeah truth especially intentionally. It destroys Star Wars in Asia. The 3rd JP will easily do more 

[Eric Prime]

Man, this whining over Star Wars sure is boring.

 

Say, @WrathOfHan, could you be an Informer, and tell me what are you planning for tonight? I know that I'm going to Dolittle, but I think it would be nice if we did something together. We can be a team like Gretel & Hansel. I mean, I'd say we're Bad Boys for Life, so let's do something together and crush it Like a Boss before this forum goes Underwater and I start Turning and holding a Grudge against people. We're both great Gentlemen, no? The Last Full Measure and The Rhythm Section

[Justin4125]

48 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I'd easily argue Jurassic World is now bigger than Star Wars worldwide. Not only was JW2 able to do the same numbers as TLJ worldwide despite its predecessor finishing $400m below TFA. 

 

In terms of raw appeal to people around the world, Jurassic World is more attractive.

In all fairness lets see how JW3 performs first. Its highly likely people are getting a little tired of Jurassic World as well and that the new trilogy follows in the footsteps of the OG trilogy (where the 3rd grossed about 1/3 of the original. TLJ still outperformed JWFK by a few million worldwide, I wouldnt say its out of the question that JW3 also tops out around 1.1bn. The difference is definitely China, if interest is still growing there, that will offset declines elsewhere. Unfortunately SW just isnt a player in growth markets, which hurts it WW potential long term 

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

Man, this whining over Star Wars sure is boring.

 

Say, @WrathOfHan, could you be an Informer, and tell me what are you planning for tonight? I know that I'm going to Dolittle, but I think it would be nice if we did something together. We can be a team like Gretel & Hansel. I mean, I'd say we're Bad Boys for Life, so let's do something together and crush it Like a Boss before this forum goes Underwater and I start Turning and holding a Grudge against people. We're both great Gentlemen, no? The Last Full Measure and The Rhythm Section

Way to be a Bird and Prey on the hype

 

30 minutes.

[a2k]

Surely WW84 will sell twice as many tickets as (a deflated by release date) Shazam

 

115 * 2.8 = 322 is my worst-case projection for WW84

(just 12 more that 103.25 in ow of an acclaimed blockbuster and legs going from 4x to 2.8x)

Edited December 26, 2019 by a2k

[wildphantom]

16 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

In all fairness lets see how JW3 performs first. Its highly likely people are getting a little tired of Jurassic World as well and that the new trilogy follows in the footsteps of the OG trilogy (where the 3rd grossed about 1/3 of the original. TLJ still outperformed JWFK by a few million worldwide, I wouldnt say its out of the question that JW3 also tops out around 1.1bn. The difference is definitely China, if interest is still growing there, that will offset declines elsewhere. Unfortunately SW just isnt a player in growth markets, which hurts it WW potential long term 

difference is JW3 is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Where they actually change the record and put the dinosaurs in suburbia - with Grant, Ellie and Ian all back. 
I, like everyone else, fell for the nostalgia of JW, but was really turned off by FK. Yet that promise of an ending, with the original gang back together - irresistible recipe.  That movie is going to be huge.  I don’t see it falling from FK personally. 

[Yandereprime101189]

 

[Brainbug]

Anyone who thinks that JW3 will decline from Fallen Kingdom is kidding him/herself.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Brainbug

[CloneWars]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Anyone who thinks that JW3 will decline from Fallen Kingdom is kidding him/herself.

It might decrease, but probably not much. If we get the Dino military arc, we will probably get an increase.

[ViewerAnon]

Of course JURASSIC WORLD is a bigger worldwide franchise than STAR WARS. What I don’t understand is people treating this like an anomaly.

 

In 2005, STAR WARS was arguably the 4th biggest franchise of that era, behind THE LORD OF THE RINGS, HARRY POTTER, and SPIDER-MAN.

[John Marston]

Problem with Sw is they have no idea what will be a hit after Solo bombed. What Wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get a movie for a long time and they stick to Disney Plus 

Edited December 26, 2019 by John Marston

[ZackM]

I've got TROS 19% ahead of Monday's end-of-day total, which would be about $35M.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I've got TROS 19% ahead of Monday's end-of-day total, which would be about $35M.

Right on. If that holds, then this really is behaving like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug in 2013. Its pattern has been quite reliable for projecting TROS dailies so far, though admittedly we're still in early days here.

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Right on. If that holds, then this really is behaving like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug in 2013. Its pattern has been quite reliable for projecting TROS dailies so far, though admittedly we're still in early days here.

35 Christmas and following Hobbit for rest of run is 101M 2nd weekend and 545M finish, fwiw  

 

Edit: Yikes, careful doing math after too many gingerbread cookies folks. Real numbers on next page.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[JB33]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

35 Christmas and following Hobbit for rest of run is 101M 2nd weekend and 545M finish, fwiw

What are your thoughts on that? I think it could actually leg it out more than that.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

35 Christmas and following Hobbit for rest of run is 101M 2nd weekend and 545M finish, fwiw

Id have a hard time seeing it short change 550m if it has a 100m 2nd weekend, but then again Hobbit 2 and 3 both didn't have great post holiday play so it wouldnt be a surprise if ROS did the same. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

47 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Of course JURASSIC WORLD is a bigger worldwide franchise than STAR WARS. What I don’t understand is people treating this like an anomaly.

 

In 2005, STAR WARS was arguably the 4th biggest franchise of that era, behind THE LORD OF THE RINGS, HARRY POTTER, and SPIDER-MAN.

I think there's this notion that Star Wars' rightful place should be the "No 1 Franchise in the world" when it hasn't really been that way since the OT. I think some equate Star Wars utter dominance in North America to the rest of the world. 

[JB33]

The first major deviation from Hobbit 2 I foresee (apart from a completely different kind of opening day and Saturday) is tomorrow. Maybe it's me of little faith but I have a hard time seeing TROS bump another 13.1% tomorrow as Smaug did. That would be a Boxing Day gross of $39.6M. Yeah no. Then again, it may sort of even out with Smaug by increasing less on Boxing Day (or even decreasing a bit) but jumping up on Friday, whereas Smaug dropped 5%.

[ViewerAnon]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

35 Christmas and following Hobbit for rest of run is 101M 2nd weekend and 545M finish, fwiw

By my math, SMAUG made 11.7x its $9.3M Christmas number for another $109M.  The same ratio off a $35M Christmas Day would give TROS another $409M, for a $636M domestic total, no?

Edited December 26, 2019 by ViewerAnon