BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It has great potential energy but I feel its too bloated at this point. Look at the sales over past 5 years. There is very little growth. Great Companies(Look at topline of AAPL/AMZN/MSFT/NVDA/GOOG/FB etc), they keep growing their topline and I would like to see with DIS. But they may have to prune some of the capital intensive business. Let us see where Chapek takes us. I am still invested in it. 

 

 

I shouldn't have sold Facebook when they were at 290

 

Buying Nvidia and Roku on their dips in early May though....  

Edited July 12, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Cooper Legion]

The Cruella double features actually ruined my pricing over at Fantasy Movie League

 

Though it was close with Purge, that held great.   
 

Keep in mind though, a lot of the % holds are inflated by last Sat+Sun being massively deflated.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

I shouldn't have sold Facebook when they were at 290

 

Buying Nvidia and Roku on their dips in early May though....  

Congrats on NVDA and ROKU purchase. Enjoy your winners and dont worry about ones you do not have. I sold my covered call on my FB position and that got called out because it went up too fast. But its ok, there are so many other opportunities. We just need Jay Powell to keep printing and keep interest at 0%> 

 

[RRA]

4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Once the Disney parks fully reopen and everyone feels safe going Disney will be back in business. I heard the parks make way more money for them than their movies.

It’s why Disney pre-Eisner in the 80s seriously considered quit making movies and concentrate just on their parks.

[RRA]

4 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

You guys clearly haven't met Zatt/iJack. Boy will do anything to prop up Marvel. Papa Feige could come out in the open, say "Ant-Man and the Wasp flopped big time lol", and he'd probably do something like "well it wasn't Pluto Nash bad. Clearly Marvel knows what they're doing and giving what people want". Just let him do his thing and he'll tire himself out eventually.

Oh is he? Ask him if The Incredible Hulk flopped.

 

😛

[RRA]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Just like USA, losing to China uncontrollably.

 

Meanwhile, AMC shares goes up 2000% year to date. Long live theater and big screen matters!!

 

Yes the same AMC that (with other mega-chains) put out of business countless smaller independent/mom and pop theaters across America who didn’t have Reddit to bail them out. 
 

(Yes I’m extra salty because two of my two indie theaters went under during the pandemic, both cheaper and one of them the only “art house” theater around that also moonlighted as a 2nd run joint.)
 

 

 

 

[BK007]

14 hours ago, Chicago said:

Sorry but no they are morally completely different. No-one likes a wallet taking thief yet no-one gives a shit about someone who watches a movie for free. You cannot class them as the same thing.

 

Ill go to the cinemas depending on the movie, like a comedy or an epic like Endgame work well with an audience but if i've got to self isolate for 8 days and a 4k version of your newly released movie comes up on my Kodi then I'm going to play it. It's not like I can ring up Disney and tell them they left their movie online for all to see

 

You wouldn't call someone a thief for listening to music singles on YouTube all day. 

 

They are the same thing. Do you have a right to watch it for free? Whether it is culturally acceptable or not, it's illegal - and not for political reasons. You may feel entitled, but it's not your right to do so.

 

14 hours ago, Chicago said:

I pay £10 a month for a cinema pass, ill never feel bad for pirating a movie. I bet if you saw a copy of black widow sitting on the street, you'd take it home rather than send it to disney offices lol. Its up to disney not to make it so easy. If we were to trust the goodwill of humans then we wouldn't need things like house locks or antivirus would we lol

 

 

Not everyone is tech savy enough to know where to find pirated movies, if they were these numbers would be even worse. In the future these people will have easier access to these copies, just like what happened in the music industry

 

And the money these youtubers make for views is insignificant compared to the days of buying a single. 3 lions had 26m downloads in 2018, netted the song makers just 900 quid lol. The music Industry ended up losing that battle and so will the movie industry if they want to make it easy for us to get their products.

 

At not one point did I say piracy is the sole reason for any underperformance but it seems obvious to point out that it will become a major problem if they continue down this path

 

That's another stupid analogy. You don't come across movie files, you need to actively find and download them. 

 

People feel entitled, but they are being subsidized by the paying audience. Eventually we'll hit a point of no return & it will affect content if it hasn't already.

 

11 hours ago, Chicago said:

Sorry if I seemed off, I'm English, we are allowed to be bitter today after getting spanked by Italy.

 

Of course millions will still pay to watch it but this new way of releasing films is still in the early stages. I hope as you said that it's only here to give people options through the pandemic and not the new norm. Even though the franchises have done well over the years, there is a case that smaller movies find it much harder to find success and cinema goers are choosing to watch these at home rather than see them on the big screen. I just don't want it to start happening with the blockbusters too.

 

I get your point, I doubt BW is seen by most as a MUST SEE like the previous MCU movies before it so could have disappointed in normal circumstances anyways.

 

 

You don't want it to happen, yet pirated a blockbuster yourself lol. Get some self awareness.

 

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

DIS stock is up 2.33% today and at their highest point in several months.

 

This was a successful weekend 

 

That's more because of successful PR spin. Most investors are still too dumb to realize what it all means. Like I said, the number looks good, but the depth is questionable. Then again, I'm not following it so maybe it's already suppressed from park closures and whatnot.

[RRA]

1 hour ago, BK007 said:

 

They are the same thing. Do you have a right to watch it for free? Whether it is culturally acceptable or not, it's illegal - and not for political reasons. You may feel entitled, but it's not your right to do so.

 

 

That's another stupid analogy. You don't come across movie files, you need to actively find and download them. 

 

People feel entitled, but they are being subsidized by the paying audience. Eventually we'll hit a point of no return & it will affect content if it hasn't already.

 

 

You don't want it to happen, yet pirated a blockbuster yourself lol. Get some self awareness.

 

 

That's more because of successful PR spin. Most investors are still too dumb to realize what it all means. Like I said, the number looks good, but the depth is questionable. Then again, I'm not following it so maybe it's already suppressed from park closures and whatnot.

The problem when people advocate piracy, a conglomerate like Disney supposedly can take it but indie films or companies that have to count every penny to keep the lights on? Not so much.

 

as for the stock bump, perception is reality. 

[Jamiem]

 

 

 

Wonder how AQPIIs legs will be for the rest of its run. 

[eddyxx]

9 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

 

Imagine the meltdown if the actual had been 79.

[poweranimals]

44 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Imagine the meltdown if the actual had been 79.

I was worried about that. I'm really wondering now how the legs are going to be on this. 

[RRA]

22 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I was worried about that. I'm really wondering now how the legs are going to be on this. 

I would be more worried about OS legs 

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

 

 

 

Wonder how AQPIIs legs will be for the rest of its run. 

not enough people subscribe to P+ to make a difference , but it will be on regular vod tomorrow and then blu-ray in 2 weeks

[cdsacken]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It has great potential energy but I feel its too bloated at this point. Look at the sales over past 5 years. There is very little growth. Great Companies(Look at topline of AAPL/AMZN/MSFT/NVDA/GOOG/FB etc), they keep growing their topline and I would like to see with DIS. But they may have to prune some of the capital intensive business. Let us see where Chapek takes us. I am still invested in it. 

 

 

 

It's going to be absolutely nuts the next few years at the parks and cruises. Insane pent up demand.

 

Then streaming will improve

 

I love all of those companies and sales force and DocuSign. I don't own Nvidia but I own the semi conductor index (ticker smh). I need to sell other crap and buy more amzn/good/nvda. I have way too much apple/DocuSign/from/fscebookl/msft. Over 20% of my total portfolio lol. Not my fault pandemic did it 😂

 

Too chicken and my company forbid me to (strongly discouraged) to own amc/gme. So I own the stocks who rent property to them (epr/Mac)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 13, 2021 by cdsacken

[Saul Goodman]

I still don;t get what Disney's "endgame" is behind these releases. Let D+ PA cut into movies' box office legs? Expecting a 60%+ second weekend drop.

[Chicago]

6 hours ago, BK007 said:

 

They are the same thing. Do you have a right to watch it for free? Whether it is culturally acceptable or not, it's illegal - and not for political reasons. You may feel entitled, but it's not your right to do so.

 

 

That's another stupid analogy. You don't come across movie files, you need to actively find and download them. 

 

People feel entitled, but they are being subsidized by the paying audience. Eventually we'll hit a point of no return & it will affect content if it hasn't already.

 

 

You don't want it to happen, yet pirated a blockbuster yourself lol. Get some self awareness.

 

Whether I feel entitled or not, its irrelevant, what's relevant is how quick it pops up on my menu once its been on the market. It's not like people are simply going out of their way to download these movies. Most people who watch pirates stream them through a stick. The moment it's on D+, it's all over the streaming sites. Watching a pirated movie has become so easy that even my parents stream them (and think its legal) through these increasingly popular firesticks. You can say it's the same as stealing a wallet all you like, the reality is far from it.

 

Taking the high horse by assuming we are bad won't solve anything, it's completely ignoring the evident problem and shows your lack of understanding. If you go round your mates and he suggests a blue-ray of a film that hasn't been released yet, you'll sit and watch it and don't say you wouldn't. 

 

If content starts taking a hit then blame the increasingly stupid payouts to stars, not little ol johnny trying to survive on student loan. If anything the business could do with a shake up when 1% of the film crew ends up with 99% of the pay.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Chicago

[Liiviig 1998]

Ant-man 2  and CFA both July releases with A- cinemascore dropped 61%and 60.7% respectively then continued on to have good legs (2.88x/2.7x).

 

BW will drop at least 58% -60%+ in it's second weekend. Drops for third weekend onwards will be the ones that are interesting to watch.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Liiviig 1998

[TigerPaw]

3 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

I still don;t get what Disney's "endgame" is behind these releases. Let D+ PA cut into movies' box office legs? Expecting a 60%+ second weekend drop.

Maybe we can be more optimistic here; Raya and Cruella had great legs.

 

Edit: to be fair - both films have much lower opening and their word of mouth is not as mixed.

Edited July 13, 2021 by TigerPaw

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Maybe we can be more optimistic here; Raya and Cruella had great legs.

Cruella and  raya were family movies  those have always been legier even before the pandemic

 

Let's go with mcu standard 2.6-2.7x

The only movies with 3x  are avengers ,BP,GotG1,ironman ,ant-man and we all know the positive receptions those had  compared to black widow.

 

Mcu is a fan driven franchise so OW tend to be bigger then fall off for most of the times with a few exceptions were it's extremely good  first time movie and not a sequel e.g avengers . IW and EG still had good reception but their were still frontloaded bse they was a fan rush on OW .

 

Most family movies don't have a rush ,. Even those with hype and lage opening weekends still manage good 3x legs.

Incredibles 2(3.3x)

Find dory(3.6x)

Ts3(3.7x)

Ts4(3.6x)

Aladdin(3x 4 day memorial day weekend)etc....

Of course their minor exceptions like TLK and BatB (2.8x)

[john2000]

12 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Ant-man 2  and CFA both July releases with A- cinemascore dropped 61%and 60.7% respectively then continued on to have good legs (2.88x/2.7x).

 

BW will drop at least 58% -60%+ in it's second weekend. Drops for third weekend onwards will be the ones that are interesting to watch.

spiderman homecoming also had a 61-62 drop