The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

Minions is gonna outgross Lightyears final DOM total in 5 Days isnt it?

[Eric Prime]

On 6/28/2022 at 1:15 AM, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6136	34527	17.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 187

 

Comp

0.360x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-10 (18.01M)

1.141x of The Batman T-10 (24.66M)

0.597x of Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (21.5M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6305	34527	18.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 169

 

Comp

0.361x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-9 (18.07M)

1.137x of The Batman T-9 (24.55M)

0.584x of Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (21.04M)

[Alex SciChannel]

11 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

Over 100m is possible from previews of over 7m.

I mean is it likely? Many here are predicting a 10x internal multiplier for Minions 2. 

[Eric Prime]

On 6/28/2022 at 1:16 AM, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	209	12632	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	219	13040	1.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.782x of F9 T-23 (5.55M)

 

Look! A comp!

[filmlover]

I still can't get over that previews are now starting at 2:00.

 

I hope Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse starts at 10 in the morning (a time when the first show at a lot of movie theaters usually starts) that Thursday next year and they still expect us to buy it as "previews."

[M37]

53 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Is a 100M 4-day possible with an internal multiplier from 8M-8.5M previews?

Plausible, but probably on the higher end - really depends on TFri as compared to Thur

 

Looking at roughly ~3x TFri for FSS total and then Mon down estimated 30% from Sun (based on 2016, but might be more), so a 3.7x TFri. If TFri is 3x Thursday, then get a ~10x 3-day IM and ~12x 4-day, but won’t be surprised if those are closer to 9x and 11x instead 

 

So $8.5/$24/$26.5/$24/$17 = $100 is possible 

[Cooper Legion]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I still can't get over that previews are now starting at 2:00.

 

I hope Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse starts at 10 in the morning (a time when the first show at a lot of movie theaters usually starts) that Thursday next year and they still expect us to buy it as "previews."

ITH and Clifford already did it 

[Cooper Legion]

I have Sat down ~5% from fri for a true IM closer to 2.75, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Tfri ~3.5x Th which still clear 10x 3day

Edited June 29, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-2	Jax	5	8	0	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	7	0	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	4	6	2	4	292	1.37%
	Total		13	21	2	9	1,725	0.52%
Minions 2	T-2	Jax	7	104	122	339	17,171	1.97%
		Phx	6	72	86	384	12,636	3.04%
		Ral	8	67	140	439	8,475	5.18%
ATP: 14.07	Total		21	243	348	1,162	38,282	3.04%
Nope	T-23	Jax	7	51	2	60	8,591	0.70%
		Phx	6	20	6	93	4,344	2.14%
		Ral	8	25	3	65	3,411	1.91%
	Total		21	96	11	218	16,346	1.33%
Thor 4	T-9	Jax	7	112	76	1,887	17,265	10.93%
		Phx	6	114	82	2,368	18,369	12.89%
		Ral	8	68	90	2,158	8,676	24.87%
ATP: 14.61	Total		21	294	248	6,413	44,310	14.47%

 

There are only a few comps that even get Malcolm's List to 100k.  Most are in the 60k range.

 

Minions 2 T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.08x (5.398m)

 - Encanto - 4.8x (7.2m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.27x (6.236m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.54x (9.265m)

 

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

Nope T-23 comp

 - JW-D - .109x (1.95m)

 - Eternals - .286x (2.71m)

 - Black Widow - .2x (2.65m)

 

Thor 4 T-9 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .582x (20.96m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.56m)

 - No Way Home - .33x (16.51m)

 - Black Widow - 2.61x (34.52m)

 - JW3 - 1.987x (35.76m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-1	Jax	5	8	0	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	7	1	4	574	0.70%
		Ral	4	6	3	7	292	2.40%
	Total		13	21	4	13	1,725	0.75%
Minions 2	T-1	Jax	7	108	172	511	17,667	2.89%
		Phx	7	79	180	564	13,089	4.31%
		Ral	8	67	207	646	8,475	7.62%
ATP: 13.9	Total		22	254	559	1,721	39,231	4.39%
Nope	T-22	Jax	7	51	0	60	8,591	0.70%
		Phx	6	20	0	93	4,344	2.14%
		Ral	8	25	16	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	16	234	16,346	1.43%
Thor 4	T-8	Jax	7	112	105	1,992	17,265	11.54%
		Phx	6	114	128	2,496	18,369	13.59%
		Ral	8	83	92	2,250	10,995	20.46%
ATP: 14.57	Total		21	309	325	6,738	46,629	14.45%

 

Minions 2 T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.23x (6.12m)

 - Encanto - 5.55x (8.33m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.46x (7.15m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.73x (10.06m)

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

Just keeps chugging along.   Wouldn't be surprised with 8m or higher if it keeps up the pace.  I'll try to get a chart up if I have time today

 

Nope T-22 comps

 - JW-D - .115x (2.07m)

 - Eternals - .264x (2.51m)

 - Black Widow - .18x (2.39m)

 

Thor 4 T-7 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .585x (21.06m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .34x (16.77m)

 - Black Widow - 2.57x (33.97m)

 - JW3 - 2.005x (36.1m)

[Cmasterclay]

Stunned to learn that grown adults with access to a computer and credit card were not feverishly buying tickets for a Minions movie weeks in advance

[Sandro Mazzola]

1 hour ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I mean is it likely? Many here are predicting a 10x internal multiplier for Minions 2. 

 

Boss Baby 2 made 1.31m from previews starting at 4pm and its 4 day (including a Sunday 4th July) was 19.65m.
2pm previews will lower the mult but with it skewing so young, having Canada Day on Friday and 4th July on Monday means the FSS should behave more like 3 Saturdays... 10x IM for 4day seems way too pessimistic. 

[YM!]

Minions is selling insane at my theater, forgot to mention it last night but it’s like 96.5% of Aladdin and 178% of Sonic 2’s ticket presales. I’m confident in 7-9m in previews.

[Alex SciChannel]

Does this mean the return of the animation juggernauts?

Edited June 29, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Liiviig 1998]

Yeah this looks like it has potential to explode.

 

But will keep my expectations in check

 

75-80m 4 day.

 

2pm previews will skew the IM abit but personally think it has a shot at  10x IM for the 3 day alone.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Minions	PLF	27	134	320	6,128	5.22%	$14.12	$4,519.83
		Standard	65	252	728	9,596	7.59%	$10.75	$7,827.80
	Minions Total		92	386	1,048	15,724	6.66%	$11.78	$12,347.63
T-9	Thor 4	PLF	57	93	3,789	11,672	32.46%	$15.89	$60,216.86
		Standard	87	74	2,218	11,439	19.39%	$11.86	$26,313.10
	Thor 4 Total		144	167	6,007	23,111	25.99%	$14.40	$86,529.96

 

By matinee

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Minions	N	58	252	638	9,929	6.43%	$13.14	$8,385.47
		Y	34	134	410	5,795	7.08%	$9.66	$3,962.16
	Minions Total		92	386	1,048	15,724	6.66%	$11.78	$12,347.63
T-9	Thor 4	N	103	130	4,838	16,531	29.27%	$15.05	$72,816.92
		Y	41	37	1,169	6,580	17.77%	$11.73	$13,713.04
	Thor 4 Total		144	167	6,007	23,111	25.99%	$14.40	$86,529.96

 

Solid day for Minions; added 40 shows and +58% in tickets sold

 

Minions T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.043x (5.19m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.84x (9m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 4.87x (7.3m)

 

Thor T-9 comps

 - No Way Home - missed (~20.02m)

 - DS2 - missed (~20.87m)

 - Batman + EA - missed (~35.65m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions	PLF	27	301	621	6,128	10.13%	$14.29	$8,871.11
		Standard	70	446	1,174	9,815	11.96%	$10.68	$12,539.63
	Total		97	747	1,795	15,943	11.26%	$11.93	$21,410.74
T-8	Thor 4	PLF	57	88	3,877	11,672	33.22%	$15.88	$61,551.39
		Standard	87	111	2,329	11,439	20.36%	$11.85	$27,601.71
	Total		144	199	6,206	23,111	26.85%	$14.37	$89,153.10

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions	N	62	486	1,124	10,104	11.12%	$13.18	$14,819.23
		Y	35	261	671	5,839	11.49%	$9.82	$6,591.51
	Total		97	747	1,795	15,943	11.26%	$11.93	$21,410.74
T-8	Thor 4	N	103	144	4,982	16,531	30.14%	$15.01	$74,803.83
		Y	41	55	1,224	6,580	18.60%	$11.72	$14,349.27
	Total		144	199	6,206	23,111	26.85%	$14.37	$89,153.10

 

Huge jump for Minions of 71%.  All of those PLF shows that got added Monday (okay maybe not the 3D) started filling up yesterday.  

 

Minions T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.179x (5.87m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 2.18x (10.69m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 6.75x (10.12m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 1.16x (6.97m)

 

Hasn't busted the doors off the Sonic comp, but the pace is there to get to mid 7s.  Sonic final ATP with adult prices was 12.07, so this is already losing a little there before factoring in a younger audience.  That being said, I'm expecting the biggest increase today to be in the Dolby shows so maybe it catches up.

 

Thor T-8 comps

 - No Way Home - .403x (20.17m)

 - DS2 - .586x (21.12m)

 - Batman + EA - missed (~35.65m)

[John Marston]

So people still aren’t tired of those yellow bastards? Damn

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Minions is gonna outgross Lightyears final DOM total in 5 Days isnt it?

why is that a surprise. Minions is a sequel to 100m+ opener while Lightyear is movie within another movie. 

 

Anyway Minions breakout is confirmed. Tuesday is the strongest I have seen for any openers. 

 

Minions MTC1 Friday -  76708/1264045 1166869.54 6905 shows + 32603

 

This is about 28 hours as well but still its crazy strong for a tuesday of a release. I think at this point even 100m OW cannot be ruled out. Let us see how wednesday goes.

[Tinalera]

Minions Rise of Gru

SW/Toronto Ontario t-2

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	1145	22848	23993	0.0477
Fri	19	195	1917	47232	49149	0.039

 

Comps 

 

x3.331 Lightyear (66 million US/Canada, 2.49 Canada only)

X .3525 Jurassic Dominion (20 million US/Canada, 669 Thousand Canada only)

 

As on target Friday percentage dropped with the huge amount of seats that became available on Wed like Cineplex likes to do. 

[Brainbug]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

why is that a surprise. Minions is a sequel to 100m+ opener while Lightyear is movie within another movie. 

 

Anyway Minions breakout is confirmed. Tuesday is the strongest I have seen for any openers. 

 

Minions MTC1 Friday -  76708/1264045 1166869.54 6905 shows + 32603

 

This is about 28 hours as well but still its crazy strong for a tuesday of a release. I think at this point even 100m OW cannot be ruled out. Let us see how wednesday goes.

 

Oh come on nobody predicted how much of a bomb Lightyear would be. Even days before its release, there were enough 250-300M+ predictions for it floating around while for Minions 2, most predictions were in the 200-250M region. So if this should open to 100M+, i would consider it a breakout and a surprising one at that.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Oh come on nobody predicted how much of a bomb Lightyear would be. Even days before its release, there were enough 250-300M+ predictions for it floating around while for Minions 2, most predictions were in the 200-250M region. So if this should open to 100M+, i would consider it a breakout and a surprising one at that.

Many people would be surprised just how many people are looking forward to Minions. Anecdotally I know many full grown adults that have told me they refrain from going to animated films because of the stigma of it being for kids but say they are willing to go see Minions 2 even without their kids because the marketing and the comedy looks appealing.