The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-prey-for-the-devil/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/29/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/7/2022	Amsterdam	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	+15%	$40,000,000 – $65,000,000	+6%	2,500	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/7/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$18,000,000 – $23,000,000		$65,000,000 – $90,000,000		4,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$65,000,000 – $84,000,000			Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	The Banshees of Inisherin						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022	Black Adam	$55,000,000 – $70,000,000		$135,000,000 – $175,000,000			Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022	Ticket to Paradise	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$40,000,000 – $65,000,000			Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Untitled Paramount						Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022	Prey for the Devil	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000		$13,000,000 – $25,000,000			Lionsgate
10/28/2022	Tár (Nationwide Expansion; Limited on October 7)						Focus Features
10/28/2022	Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14)						MGM / UAR / Orion

[filmlover]

Is Banshees wide or limited on October 21? If wide it's gonna pretty much die out the gate ala See How They Run.

 

Surprised to see the Amsterdam projection go up. Maybe that insanely talented cast really is too good to resist even for an apparently crappy movie?

[Eric Duncan]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Is Banshees wide or limited on October 21? If wide it's gonna pretty much die out the gate ala See How They Run.

 

Surprised to see the Amsterdam projection go up. Maybe that insanely talented cast really is too good to resist even for an apparently crappy movie?

Haven't looked at it super closely, but Amsterdam sales look alright in Philly so far, even taking out the IMAX Live showing. And people keep saying they're looking at promos and commercials for it everywhere.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/23/2022 at 8:52 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Don't Worry, Darling	3,387	66,697		63,470		3,227	267	0
Avatar	1,614	24,152		2,269		21,883	3,149	18,291
Railway Children	828	9,998		9,988		10	0	0
Moonage Daydream	626	7,566		7,175		391	371	0
On the Come Up	519	6,680		6,655		25	0	0
Cuando Sea Joven	290	3,911		3,900		11	0	0
The Woman King	3,070	40,855		39,500		1,355	8	0
Barbarian	2,410	28,412		28,333		79	0	0
Pearl	2,592	24,956		24,893		63	0	0
See How They Run	2,067	23,570		23,517		53	0	0
Super-Pets	1,908	14,940		14,881		59	0	0
Bullet Train	1,420	14,217		14,143		74	0	0
Top Gun: Maverick	1,599	13,779		13,614		165	3	0
The Invitation	1,307	10,983		10,907		76	0	0
Minions: The Rise of Gru	1,192	9,417		9,379		38	0	22
Crawdads	728	5,316		5,305		11	0	0
Running the Bases	656	4,993		4,967		26	0	0
Beast	564	4,418		4,390		28	0	0
Lifemark	474	3,443		3,440		3	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	280	2,147		2,147		0	0	0
Brahmastra Part 1	257	1,866		1,866		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 9/23 Weekend

 

Was out of town the last few weeks, so no change or PSA from last week.

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Don't Worry, Darling - 66,697 (3,387 TC)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

 - Downton Abbey - 67,324 (3,284)

 

Avatar - 24,152 (1,614 TC)

 - MHA:WHM - 25,807 (1,504)

 

*91% of Avatar's shows are PLF this weekend

 

Railway Children - 9,998 (828 TC)

 - Mouthful of Air - 10,035 (782)

 - Tiger Rising - 10,246 (801)

 - Watcher - 10,477 (732)

 - Roadrunner - 10,268 (848)

 

On the Come Up - 6,680 (519 TC)

 - Emily the Criminal - 6,665 (454)

 - Card Counter - 6,895 (542)

 - Lamb - 6,740 (541)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Smile (9/27 EA) - 418 (414 TC)

Smile - 27,557 (2,196 TC)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Where the Crawdads Sing - 29,677 (2,121)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 

Bros - 25,620 (2,161 TC)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950)

 

T-2 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 3,960 (1,424 TC)

 - Clifford - 4,120 (1,410)

 - Addams Family - 3,759 (1,429)

 

Amsterdam - 2,546 (1,441 TC)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 2,599 (1,511)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 

Terrifier 2 - 847 (658 TC)

 - Vengeance - 838 (455)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Smile	3,169	60,493		54,385		6,108	0	0
Bros	2,995	46,647		46,473		174	0	0
The Good House	987	12,607		12,607		0	0	0
Beer Run	456	5,542		5,521		21	0	0
Vikram Vedha	497	4,934		4,911		23	0	0
Don't Worry, Darling	3,273	40,899	-29.05%	40,753	290.17	146	51	0
The Woman King	2,800	32,621	-20.15%	32,197	269.36	424	13	0
Barbarian	2,335	26,477	-6.81%	26,466	170.18	11	0	0
Avatar	1,533	18,219	-24.57%	1,368	435.97	16,851	2,818	13,982
Super-Pets	1,633	12,143	-18.72%	12,121	116.50	22	0	0
Bullet Train	1,626	11,998	-15.61%	11,974	127.65	24	0	0
See How They Run	1,355	10,687	-54.66%	10,663	81.19	24	0	0
Top Gun: Maverick	1,247	9,963	-27.69%	9,866	117.29	97	6	0
Minions 2	1,015	7,882	-16.30%	7,711	112.59	171	129	22
Pearl	1,204	7,745	-68.97%	7,737	76.21	8	0	0
The Invitation	799	6,035	-45.05%	6,033	94.78	2	0	0
Moonage Daydream	595	3,943	-40.03%	3,922	119.49	21	18	0
Crawdads	381	2,614	-50.83%	2,614	66.17	0	0	0
Beast	323	2,583	-41.53%	2,583	85.87	0	0	0
Running the Bases	314	2,280	-54.34%	2,280	48.23	0	0	0
Railway Children	316	1,885	-79.54%	1,885	26.51	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 9/30 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Smile (9/27 EA) - 418 (414 TC)

Smile - 60,493 (3,169 TC)

 - Beast - 57,591 (3,225)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (3,169)

 

Bros - 46,647 (2,995 TC)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846)

 

The Good House - 12,607 (987 TC)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 13,334 (935)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 

The Greatest Beer Run Ever - 5,542 (456 TC)

 - Tyson's Run - 5,682 (420)

 - 2000 Mules - 5,755 (400)

 - Eyes of Tammy Faye - 5,545 (394)

 - For the Love of Money - 5,585 (494)

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 33,989 (2,382 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

 

Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878 TC)

 - JJK:0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161)

 - Matrix - 23,924 (2,657)

 

Terrifier 2 - 1,755 (650 TC)

 - Queenpins - 1,677 (144)

 

T-2 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126 TC)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868 TC)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

[stripe]

Despite reviews, Amsterdam might very well generate interest with adults just like House of Gucci or Don't Worry Darling.

Also reviews are not that terrible. Many rottens are in the C+ or 2.5/5 territory.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Eric Smiley said:

Haven't looked at it super closely, but Amsterdam sales look alright in Philly so far, even taking out the IMAX Live showing. And people keep saying they're looking at promos and commercials for it everywhere.

I've seen ads nonstop for it for nearly a month now so Disney is certainly getting awareness out there. The commercials barely even sell the premise, they just highlight all the people in the movie, so whatever it makes will be largely due to the cast.

[Inceptionzq]

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

74

1482

4.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

53

1436

3.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
249	249	20171	1.23%	14	95

 

AMCs sold	207
Cinemarks sold	31
Regals sold	9
Harkins sold	2

 

0.328x Jurassic World Dominion first 36 hours (5.90M)

0.104x Batman first 24 hours (2.24M)

0.356x Eternals first 17 hours (3.38M)

0.621x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (5.46M)

1.32x Suicide Squad T-20 (5.43M)

[Inceptionzq]

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-20 Thursday(68 showings): 150/23890

0.350x Jurassic World first 36 hours (6.29M)

0.05x Batman first 24 hours (1.10M)

0.303x Eternals first 17 hours (2.88M)

0.392x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (3.45M)

 

T-21 Friday(107 showings): 77/39510

0.296x Jurassic World first 36 hours (12.31M)

0.126x Batman first 24 hours (4.41M)

0.320x Eternals first 17 hours (6.83M)

0.356x Shang-Chi first 17 hours (7.37M)

 

T-22 Saturday(101 showings): 54/37936

0.280x Jurassic World first 36 hours (13.13M)

0.212x Batman first 24 hours (9.17M)

0.391x Eternals first 17 hours (9.43M)

 

T-23 Sunday(98 showings): 34/36538

1.13x Jurassic World first 36 hours (43.62M)

1.42x Batman first 24 hours (48.48M)

0.493x Eternals first 17 hours (8.05M)

 

[Inceptionzq]

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-20 Thursday(111 showings): 630/17669 ATP: $15.53

0.330x Jurassic World first 36 hours (5.94M)

0.108x Batman first 24 hours (1.90M)

0.207x Eternals T-20 (1.97M)

 

T-21 Friday(132 showings): 456/21196 ATP: $15.58

0.357x Jurassic World first 36 hours (14.85M)

0.088x Batman first 24 hours (3.07M)

0.190x Eternals T-21 (4.05M)

 

T-22 Saturday(139 showings): 463/22286 ATP: $14.79

0.382x Jurassic World first 36 hours (17.91M)

0.114x Batman first 24 hours (4.94M)

0.206x Eternals T-22 (4.97M)

 

T-23 Sunday(118 showings): 133/18818 ATP: $13.50

0.304x Jurassic World first 36 hours (11.73M)

0.09x Batman first 24 hours (3.08M)

0.101x Eternals T-23 (1.65M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/29/2022 at 10:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Smile	PLF	10	80	80	1,674	4.78%	$14.92	$1,193.96
		Standard	14	79	79	2,390	3.31%	$13.54	$1,069.56
	Total		24	159	159	4,064	3.91%	$14.24	$2,263.52

 

Crawdads - .309x (619k)

Nope - .125x (801k)

Don't Worry - .243x (754k)

Black Phone - .211x (548k)

 

I'm not sure if Santikos had EA, but these aren't really inspiring.  I'll go with 850k true Thursday, hoping that walkups are healthy.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Smile (Fri)	PLF	24	442	442	5,114	8.64%	$14.87	$6,572.86
		Standard	51	380	380	7,257	5.24%	$11.13	$4,227.51
	Total		75	822	822	12,371	6.64%	$13.14	$10,800.37

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Smile (Fri)	N	45	725	725	7,471	9.70%	$13.62	$9,877.24
		Y	30	97	97	4,900	1.98%	$9.52	$923.13
	Total		75	822	822	12,371	6.64%	$13.14	$10,800.37

 

Thursday really under-indexed here, but Friday sales look solid.

 

Smile comps

 - Nope - .444x (5.83m)

 - Crawdads - 1.033x (5.44m)

 - Don't Worry - .945x (6.02m)

 - Beast - 2.17x (7.34m)

 

Smile adjusted comps (assuming 1.7 true previews)

 - Nope - 12.38m

 - Crawdads - 14.94m

 - Don't Worry - 13.58m

 - Beast - 6.7m

 

I'm not sure what happened yesterday, but I'm certainly not expecting to need the same (or any) adjustments today.  I'll go with.... 6.5m for true Friday

[Maggie]

2022’s Last Hopes: Box Office Projections for ‘Avatar 2,’ ‘Black Adam,’ ‘Black Panther 2’

 

 

• 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million

• 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million

• 'Black Adam': $328 million

• 'Halloween Ends': $130 million

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

[Maggie]

That Halloween prediction is very optimistic

[AJG]

8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

2022’s Last Hopes: Box Office Projections for ‘Avatar 2,’ ‘Black Adam,’ ‘Black Panther 2’

 

 

• 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million

• 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million

• 'Black Adam': $328 million

• 'Halloween Ends': $130 million

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

 

I've never heard of Cinelytic, and the reasoning behind these predictions are just non existent.

 

I'd argue it's too low for Panther and too high for Adam.

 

Quote

The respective $328 million and $423 million Cinelytic predicts for “Black Adam” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” are otherwise consistent with the running tally for brand siblings “The Batman” and “Doctor Strange 2” in 2022.

 

Dwayne Johnson is certainly a get for Warners, especially at a time when the studio absolutely needs its films to turn a profit within the newly christened Warner Bros. Discovery regime, but “Black Adam” is an untested property in DC Entertainment’s film output and doesn’t have the status of “The Batman’s” titular hero, making it unlikely to outgross the March release.

Meanwhile, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” has the untimely death of star Chadwick Boseman and his subsequent absence working against it, making its projected $424 million domestic haul well below what its 2018 predecessor pulled in, even if it would still outgross the “Doctor Strange” sequel from May. 

 

 

 

They argue Adam won't outgross Batman but will only come $40m below... of Batman?

Edited September 30, 2022 by AJG

[Maggie]

Black Adam seems good to me. I think this film has potential

[Legion Again]

Yeah they’d be better off shifting 200M from BA to BP 😂

[Grebacio]

35 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Yeah they’d be better off shifting 200M from BA to BP 😂

BP Opening Weekend > BA Entire DOM

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/28/2022 at 9:07 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-8	Jax	6	15	1	11	3,313	0.33%
		Phx	6	12	0	23	2,596	0.89%
		Ral	8	18	0	19	2,201	0.86%
	Total		20	45	1	53	8,110	0.65%
Bros	T-1	Jax	6	12	0	7	1,124	0.62%
		Phx	7	15	29	47	2,022	2.32%
		Ral	7	18	23	33	1,871	1.76%
	Total		20	45	52*	87	5,017	1.73%
Halloween Ends	T-15	Jax	5	30	41	41	5,666	0.72%
		Phx	6	20	61	61	3,911	1.56%
		Ral	5	21	64	64	2,904	2.20%
	Total		16	71	166	166	12,481	1.33%
Lyle Lyle	T-8	Jax	5	33	0	5	3,572	0.14%
		Phx	6	15	0	7	2,298	0.30%
		Ral	7	21	2	5	2,803	0.18%
	Total		18	69	2	17	8,673	0.20%
Smile	T-1	Jax	5	21	9	35	2,666	1.31%
		Phx	7	13	45	85	2,170	3.92%
		Ral	7	11	28	54	1,585	3.41%
	Total		19	45	82*	174	6,421	2.71%

 

Alright, so the Fandango app isn't reliable anymore.  I ended up doing today's run twice because I couldn't believe there were so few new sales.  Looks like I'll have to go back to using the site.  It added about an hour to the process though, so I don't know if I'll have time to track as many movies.  Not all doom and gloom for this weekend though on a positive note.

 

Bros T-1 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .821x (410k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .6x (360k)

 - Father Stu - .635x (350k)

 

Smile T-1 comps

 - Black Phone - .406x (1.05m)

 - Nope - .127x (815k)

 - Night House - 6.214x (1.62m)

 - Crawdads - .246x (492k)

 - Resident Evil - .946x (884k)

 

Smile + EA T-1 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .68x (2.04m)

 - Bullet Train + EA - .396x (1.82m)

 - Crawdads + EA - .52x (1.2m)

 - Nope - .29x (1.86m)

 

Lyle Lyle T-8 comps

 - Super Pets - .239x (527k)

 - Bad Guys - .309x (355k)

 

Amsterdam T-8 comps

 - Bullet Train - .218x (731k)

 - Beast - 1.395x (1.29m)

 

Halloween Ends T-15 comps
 - Nope - .548x (3.51m)

 - Suicide Squad - .7x (2.87m)

 - Black Phone + EA - 1.566x (4.7m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-6	Jax	6	15	0	11	3,313	0.33%
		Phx	6	12	6	29	2,596	1.12%
		Ral	8	18	2	21	2,201	0.95%
	Total		20	45	8	61	8,110	0.75%
Black Adam	T-20	Jax	4	48	82	82	9,513	0.86%
		Phx	5	39	115	115	8,433	1.36%
		Ral	7	52	110	110	7,719	1.43%
	Total		16	139	307	307	25,665	1.20%
Halloween Ends	T-13	Jax	5	30	33	69	5,666	1.22%
		Phx	6	20	20	81	3,911	2.07%
		Ral	7	26	28	97	3,388	2.86%
	Total		18	76	81	247	12,965	1.91%
Lyle Lyle	T-6	Jax	5	33	0	5	3,572	0.14%
		Phx	6	15	2	9	2,298	0.39%
		Ral	7	21	4	9	2,803	0.32%
	Total		18	69	6	23	8,673	0.27%

*New sales since Wednesday

 

Lyle Lyle T-6 comps

 - Super Pets - .225x (496k)

 - Bad Guys - .371x (427k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .535x (481k)

 - Paws of Fury - .575x (290k)

 

Amsterdam T-6 comps

 - Bullet Train - .191x (641k)

 - Beast - 1.25x (1.15m)

 - Massive Talent - 1.419x (993k)

 

NOTE: Jacksonville theaters are still closed for next Thursday

 

Halloween Ends T-13 comps
 - Nope - .706x (4.52m)

 - Suicide Squad - .925x (3.79m)

 - Black Phone + EA - 1.79x (5.37m)

 

(HK I started at T-7; Scream I only have T-0)

 

Black Adam first day comps

 - Eternals - .402x (3.82m)

 - Shang-Chi - .529x (4.66m)

 - TG2 - .295x (5.69m)

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Eric Smiley said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-prey-for-the-devil/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/29/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/7/2022	Amsterdam	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	+15%	$40,000,000 – $65,000,000	+6%	2,500	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/7/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$18,000,000 – $23,000,000		$65,000,000 – $90,000,000		4,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$65,000,000 – $84,000,000			Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	The Banshees of Inisherin						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022	Black Adam	$55,000,000 – $70,000,000		$135,000,000 – $175,000,000			Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022	Ticket to Paradise	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$40,000,000 – $65,000,000			Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Untitled Paramount						Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022	Prey for the Devil	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000		$13,000,000 – $25,000,000			Lionsgate
10/28/2022	Tár (Nationwide Expansion; Limited on October 7)						Focus Features
10/28/2022	Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14)						MGM / UAR / Orion

 

Going with the "all the advertised movies are making about $19M" paradigm for next weekend...

[Nikostar]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

2022’s Last Hopes: Box Office Projections for ‘Avatar 2,’ ‘Black Adam,’ ‘Black Panther 2’

 

 

• 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million

• 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million

• 'Black Adam': $328 million

• 'Halloween Ends': $130 million

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

Add about 200 to BP and take away 100 for BA and these will look more reasonable.

[Pinacolada]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Is Banshees wide or limited on October 21? If wide it's gonna pretty much die out the gate ala See How They Run.

 

Surprised to see the Amsterdam projection go up. Maybe that insanely talented cast really is too good to resist even for an apparently crappy movie?

I doubt it. I bet they follow the same strategy as Three Billboards. 2 weeks of platform release, and then like high hundreds/low 1000s in week 3, and then add some here and there for the rest of the run