Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

[M37]

7 minutes ago, druv10 said:

No impact or barely any. Down only 21% from yesterday and 32.5% from LW. 415M domestic could happen, now. Late legs have been pretty good.

Considering it was down only 17% and 21% on Fri & Sat this past weekend, a -32.5% Wed does suggest some weakening from Disney+ release. It took a few days for the HBO release (Mon 4/18) effect to really manifest for Batman: from -46% Sat before to -51% Wed to -58% on following Sat, and D+ is probably a bigger impact 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The thing about walk-ups nowadays is, once your preview number is in, it pretty much "lock" your ultimate weekend number, There is hardly any surprise element like you can have unusual walk-in business throughout the weekend. The most you can go is 10x-11x of preview number.  

There’s still a decently large variability in walkup business on Friday as compared to Thursday for a given relesse, depending on genre/audience and time of year. But after Friday, the dye is pretty much cast for the weekend 

[EmpireCity]

A really early number for today is $4.7m for TG2, but with it adding some PLF screens back, let's see what the real impact is with the new openers.  

[seduh7]

5 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Thanks a lot!! So there was one film with nearly 5x and over $50m opening. I think TGM will beat this result with slighly over 5x multiplayer as the best one is 21st century and the best since 1999. AMAZING!!

Avatar open at $77 and had an almost 10x multiplayer. 

[Krissykins]

I’m now getting a new slew of social media adverts for Top Gun Maverick today. It’s as if it’s just about to open again lol. 
 

ParamountUK even added a post about it returning to #1 again on Tuesday here in the UK. 

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Borobudur said:

The thing about walk-ups nowadays is, once your preview number is in, it pretty much "lock" your ultimate weekend number, There is hardly any surprise element like you can have unusual walk-in business throughout the weekend. The most you can go is 10x-11x of preview number.  

Is 10x-11x from preview number still a thing? Not even LY can hit that 10x ratio with FD help and that EA not being counted into preview. 

 

The highest ratio I can recall from major opening lately was TBG and perhaps followed by Sonic2. Elvis may have better ratio thanks to slightly later preview hour at 5pm.

 

 

[wildphantom]

7 hours ago, baumer said:

Completely anecdotal here but i have a huge interest in seeing elvis. of all the musical groups that my parents liked and introduced me to as a kid in the '80s, Elvis is the one that stuck with me the most. His musical talent is incredible but it's also the things that he did as a human being that really got me to appreciate him. He gave away so much money to charity, kids in need, to families that were in dire straits and so on.

 

I will definitely be seeing this opening weekend and I really hope it does well.

me too. I’m looking forward to is as much as any movie without Maverick in the title. 

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is 10x-11x from preview number still a thing? Not even LY can hit that 10x ratio with FD help and that EA not being counted into preview. 

 

The highest ratio I can recall from major opening lately was TBG and perhaps followed by Sonic2. Elvis may have better ratio thanks to slightly later preview hour at 5pm.

 

 

The Black Phone could go over 10x. Horror frequently does. 
 

Old, Spiral, Night House, Halloween Kills, Candyman and Don’t Breathe 2 all went above 10x last year. Candyman was almost 12x. 

[Juby]

1 hour ago, seduh7 said:

Avatar open at $77 and had an almost 10x multiplayer. 

Seriously?! Wow, I've never heard of this film and its box office success.

 

We were talking about non-December releases. Films released before/during Christmas holidays often have great legs (Night at the Museum 1 and 3, both Jumanji with Dwayne, The Greatest Showman, Ghost Protocol).

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The Black Phone could go over 10x. Horror frequently does. 
 

Old, Spiral, Night House, Halloween Kills, Candyman and Don’t Breathe 2 all went above 10x last year. Candyman was almost 12x. 

What time the Thursday preview start? I think EA will further push down its multiplier. 

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[The Dark Rock]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

A really early number for today is $4.7m for TG2, but with it adding some PLF screens back, let's see what the real impact is with the new openers.  

 

Around 14% drop from Wednesday. With this number what could be the weekend? $26m?

 

Hopefully it is closer to $5m for Thursday.

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

Around 14% drop from Wednesday. With this number what could be the weekend? $26m?

 

Hopefully it is closer to $5m for Thursday.

I suspect that Elvis is going to eat into it's audience, but the return of PLF should mask any negative effect. I would assume the 4.7m figure is before accounting for its new showings (Also TGM outperformed EC's early estimate by 0.3m yesterday)

[Flamengo81]

14 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

Around 14% drop from Wednesday. With this number what could be the weekend? $26m?

 

Hopefully it is closer to $5m for Thursday.

More like 30-32M. And could be higher if the PLF factor gives it a big boost...

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Mulder]

Damn a mere 3k difference? That's insane.

[Claudio]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Damn a mere 3k difference? That's insane.

That’s 30k difference actually 

[Mulder]

Just now, Claudio said:

That’s 30k difference actually 

Ah ok, I misread.

[LegendaryBen]

1 hour ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

Around 14% drop from Wednesday. With this number what could be the weekend? $26m?

 

Hopefully it is closer to $5m for Thursday.

Why are you  so negative about this performance? It’s still doing well. Please stop being negative 

Edited June 23, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Taruseth]

8 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

US is slacking. It took this long for TGM to overtake JWD? In some territories that already happened. Jokes aside TGM is simply stratospheric. After posting the 2nd biggest 4th weekend ever, it only went to do:

 

3rd biggest 4th Monday

1st biggest 4th Tuesday

1st biggest 4th Wednesday

1st biggest 4th Thursday

And will get the 2nd biggest 5th weekend - with for example 31m.

Neids 30.02m to beat Titanic's 5th weekend (though to be honest Titanic's 5th weekend was slightly larger than it Opening Weekend).

 

Coming set of weekdays will be way harder as Pre Christmas Blockbusters have MLK Day and Thanksgiving releases enter the Christmas holiday period and early August releases have Labor Day and Late April releases Memorial Day.

None the less Tuesday-Thursday probably will be top 3.

 

Monday - TG will probably place 14-10th place (4-4.8m)

Finding Nemo (I think its currently #26 or a bit further to the back) is currently the highest non holiday 5th Monday with 2.522m

#1 Avatar: 11.615m (MLK Day) 

#2 Frozen: 7.898m (30th December)

#3 TFA: 6.678m (MLK Day)

#4 The sixth Sense: 6.374m (Labor Day) 

#5 Titanic: 6.023m (MLK Day)

#6 Guardians of the Galaxy: 5.824m (Labor Day)

#7 Avengers: Infinity War: 5.159m (Memorial Day)

#8 Avengers: Endgame: 4.863m (Memorial Day)

#9 Moana: 4.841m (Boxing Day)

#10 Toy Story 2: 4.763m (27h December)

TG:M 4.6m?

Spoiler

#11 Spider-Man: No Way Home: 4.556 (MLK Day)

#12 Frozen II: 4.432m (23rd December)

#13 Wonder Woman: 4.302m (3rd July)

#14 Signs: 3.602m (Labor Day)

#15 Rouge One: A Star Wars Story: 3.339 (MLK Day)

#16 A Bug's Life: 3.319m (28th December)

#17 Tangled: 3.238m (27th December)

 

La La Land: 3.184m (MLK Day)

Stuar Little: 3.104m (MLK Day)

The Bourne Ultimation: 2.978m (Labor Day)

LotR 1: 2.794m (MLK Day)

Suicide Squad: 2.777m (Labor Day)

SW VII: TLJ: 2.773m (MLK Day)

The Greatest Showman: 2.680m (MLK Day)

Aquaman: 2.569m (MLK Day)

Finding Nemo: 2.522m 

(think I accidentally deleted something here)

Rush Hour 2.417m

E.T.: 2.412m 

SW I: TPM: 2.370m

The Hunger Games: CF: 2.278m (23rd December)

Incredibles 2: 2.246m

Jurassic Park: 2.231m

LotR 2: 2.229m (MLK Day)

LotR 3: 2.228m (MLK Day)

Toy Story: 2.225m (Christmas Day)

Black Panther: 2.188m

Up: 2.160m

Jurassic World: 2.150m

Beauty and the Beast: 2.115m (Easter Monday)

The Dark Knight: 2.112m

Toy Story 4: 2.035m

The Blind Side: 2.001m (21st December)

 

Best 5th Tuesday - Probably #2 / #3 place (4.3m-5.5m):

#1 Frozen: 7.076m (New Year’s Eve)

TGM 5m

#2 Moana: 4.844m (27^th December)

#3 Toy Story 2: 4.823m (27^th December)

#4 Toy Story: 4.818m (Boxing Day)

#5 Avatar: 4.191m

#6 Wonder Woman: 4.064m (Independence Day)

#7 A Bug’s Life: 3.565m (28^th December)

#8 Frozen II: 3.455m (Christmas Day)

#9 Incredibles 2: 3.409m

#10: Toy Story 4: 3.301m

 

Best 5th Wednesday - Probably #2-#5 (3.6m-4.6m)

#1 Frozen: 6.354 (Christmas Day) - Wednesday Release

TGM 4.2m

#2: Frozen II: 4.147m (Christmas Day)

#3 Avatar: 3.792m

#4 Knives Out: 3.650m (Christmas Day) - Wednesday Release

#5 Toy Story 2: 2.669m (22nd December) - Wednesday Release

#6: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire: 2.528m (Christmas Day)

 

Best 5th Thursday - Probably #3-5 (3.4m-4.3m)

#1 Frozen: 9.109m (Boxing Day) - Wednesday Release

#2 Frozen II: 5.542m (Boxing Day)

TGM 4.0m

#3 Avatar: 3.945m

#4 Toy Story 2: 3.458m (23rd December) - Wednesday Release

#5 Knives Out: 3.189m (Boxing Day) - Wednesday Release

#6: SW I: TPM: 3.183m - Wednesday Release

#7 The Hunger Games: CF: 3.040m (Boxing Day)

#8 Shrek 2: 2.841m - Wednesday Release

#9 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay I: 2.686m (Christmas Day)

 

6th weekend 24m : #3 needs 17.1m for that - #2 would need 25.3m (Titanic) - #1 would need 35m

7th weekend 16m: #3 is 15.2m (Passion of Christ) - #2 Titanic 25.9m and #1 Avatar 31.3m